Your summer (Sponsored by prediction markets)
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What is the overall focus of the episode on predictive markets?
This week on Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me, we talk with Pulitzer Prize winning novelist Hernan Diaz about how he's used the same fountain pen for the last 30 years. What would happen if you lost it? Do you guys know those big pens with four colors? Oh, yeah. I grew up with that. Don't miss our full conversation and the rest of our games. Listen to the Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me podcast on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.
I went to a wedding over the weekend, and I was chatting with somebody who was asking me about my opinion on a specific political candidate. And they were like, oh, I got $80 on this person winning their election in whatever state.
It would be sort of dystopian if the thing that got people really invested in American democracy in the midterms was their Kalshi pets.
Hello, hello. I'm Brittany Luce, and you're listening to It's Been a Minute from NPR, a show about what's going on in culture and why it doesn't happen by accident.
Predictive markets are reimagined betting systems where wagers can be placed on anything happening in the real world. And while sports dominate these markets, there has been a noticeable advertising shift towards reaching women. From predicting the winner of Love Island USA to the Taylor Swift-Travis Kelsey wedding, predictive markets seem to be courting a new category of consumers. To discuss this phenomenon, we're talking with Nancy Wallachy, staff writer at The Atlantic, and Lauren McCarthy, business reporter at The New York Times, to understand how predictive markets are catering to women. Lauren, Nancy, welcome to It's Been a Minute. Thanks for having us.
It's so great to be here.
I am very excited to talk about this topic today because I feel like I'm constantly getting ads that are like, girl, get into prediction markets. How would you describe, though, the prediction market landscape? this summer?
I mean, this summer was explosive for prediction markets, uh, to put it lightly. It started with the, uh, the NBA finals that I don't know if you guys are all in New York. I live in New York. It felt like the only thing we could pay attention to at the time was the Knicks. Um, extremely exciting. And then straight into the world cup and then now closing out the summer with the U S open. And prediction markets have been a part of that at every step. And in some ways, an unexpected or maybe a part of it you didn't even notice, they were really good with their organic marketing. They paid a lot of creators. Oftentimes they found creators that were doing something buzzy or fun or interesting around any of these sports events.
There was a Jalen Brunson lookalike contest. in a park in New York City. I saw that. Yeah, it was actually really fun and very viral. Yeah. Polly Market then collaborated with him, paid him, an undisclosed amount of money to then put on this so there was this like organic feeling around a lot of their marketing this summer they were just sort of integrated into the fun around it into viral moments into some like man on the street interviews and that very much carried over into the world cup
Yeah, it definitely felt... I saw it also in some very unconventional places, which I'm sure we'll get to as well. But Nancy, I want to hear from you. What were some big moments that come to mind for you around the prediction market landscape this summer?
Okay, I feel like I am outing myself as less of a sports fan or somebody that follows this because my big moment... That's fine. The thing I was hearing about it... I was hearing more about... prediction markets in terms of Love Island.
You said the magic words around here, Nancy. You said the magic words.
Yeah. And it was one of those things where actually at the time, I didn't quite realize how many of my friends or just people I'm around were actually at least talking about using Kalshi to bet on Love Island. I think they had a pretty big campaign around that. And I guess it does make sense in that, kind of like sports, I mean, there is so much interaction in terms of... If you're somebody who watches Love Island, you're watching something every day.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What is the overall focus of the episode on predictive markets?
0:00–5:37
2
How have Polymarket and Kalshi shifted their advertising toward women?
5:37–10:36
3
What were the biggest summer moments that highlighted prediction‑market growth?
10:36–21:31
4
How did the Love Island betting campaign illustrate the new female‑focused strategy?
21:31–33:54
5
Why did the World Cup become a pivotal event for prediction markets?
33:54–42:22