2026 has its first new tariff threat
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What new tariff threat did President Trump announce in 2026?
2026 has its first new tariff threat. From Marketplace, I'm Sabri Beneshour, in for David Brancaccio. President Trump, in a post on social media, said he is imposing a 25% tariff on goods from countries, quote, doing business with Iran. This is in response to Iran's government imprisoning and killing protesters. The countries that buy Iranian oil include India, Turkey, and the world's second largest economy, China, which has a tenuous trade truce with the U.S. Here's the BBC's Jeremy Bowen.
How do tariffs on Iranian oil impact global trade relations?
It's going to be complex at the very least. Here's an example. China is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil. He's in a very delicate trade situation already with their trade tariff war between America and China. Is he going to suddenly put a 25% tariff on China in addition to the other stuff they've been doing? It's already a very delicate negotiation. The thing about Iran is you cannot ignore it in the Middle East or in the wider world. Why is that? It's very big. It's got the oil. It's got the gas.
That's the BBC's Jeremy Bowen there. Later this morning, in about an hour and a half, we're going to get the Consumer Price Index for December. That's one official measure of inflation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall-Genzer has more on what we can expect.
Economists expect the December report to show inflation still above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. Economists at both Goldman Sachs and Bank of America predict inflation rose 2.7 percent year over year. Distortions from the government shutdown are expected to affect the December CPI. Federal agencies didn't reopen until the middle of November. That meant government workers were out checking prices just as holiday discounts were hitting stores. That likely led to an understating of goods inflation in November, which could make December prices artificially higher. Assumptions made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics about shelter costs during the shutdown kept the cost of rent artificially low.
That's expected to correct itself this year. We could also see the cost of tariffs continue to be passed on to consumers. I'm Nancy Marshall-Genzer for Marketplace.
It is a new year, and with it comes fresh new ways for the world to be in crisis. The Eurasia Group takes a look at this every year and comes up with a list of top global risks for the year ahead. Joining us to talk about it is co-author and Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer. Ian, welcome back. Good to be back with you. So the number one global risk in 2026 is not the tension between the US and China or Russia. You argue the number one risk is the US itself. Why?
Because the US is the most powerful country in the world and it is undoing both its role in a global order that it's set up. And it's also challenging its own political system. The level of uncertainty, unpredictability, and for others around the world, unreliability that that presents is really unprecedented.
If the U.S. is recreating a world order not based so much on rules, but just on strength in particular, is that an actual risk or a change?
Well, it's both. Even though the United States is much more powerful than China, Xi Jinping is much less constrained and much more powerful as an executive authority than President Trump is. And so there's a reason why the United States felt for generations. that it benefited from setting up and abiding by a lot of these rules, like free trade architecture and collective security and the promotion of democracy and rule of law. The fact that the United States is now unilaterally turning against those things will certainly lead to some short-term wins against, say, Venezuela and Nicolas Maduro or Denmark and Greenland. But in the long term, this is not a strategy for success.
President Trump is not a fan of renewables. China, meanwhile, is building 162 square mile solar farm. What is the risk there?
When we talk about solar and wind and nuclear, those are 21st century technologies, the prices of which are coming down exponentially as the technology improves.
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