Chapter 1: What new tariff threat did President Trump announce in 2026?
2026 has its first new tariff threat. From Marketplace, I'm Sabri Beneshour, in for David Brancaccio. President Trump, in a post on social media, said he is imposing a 25% tariff on goods from countries, quote, doing business with Iran. This is in response to Iran's government imprisoning and killing protesters.
The countries that buy Iranian oil include India, Turkey, and the world's second largest economy, China, which has a tenuous trade truce with the U.S. Here's the BBC's Jeremy Bowen.
Chapter 2: How do tariffs on Iranian oil impact global trade relations?
It's going to be complex at the very least. Here's an example. China is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil. He's in a very delicate trade situation already with their trade tariff war between America and China. Is he going to suddenly put a 25% tariff on China in addition to the other stuff they've been doing? It's already a very delicate negotiation.
The thing about Iran is you cannot ignore it in the Middle East or in the wider world. Why is that? It's very big. It's got the oil. It's got the gas.
That's the BBC's Jeremy Bowen there. Later this morning, in about an hour and a half, we're going to get the Consumer Price Index for December. That's one official measure of inflation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall-Genzer has more on what we can expect.
Economists expect the December report to show inflation still above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. Economists at both Goldman Sachs and Bank of America predict inflation rose 2.7 percent year over year. Distortions from the government shutdown are expected to affect the December CPI. Federal agencies didn't reopen until the middle of November.
That meant government workers were out checking prices just as holiday discounts were hitting stores. That likely led to an understating of goods inflation in November, which could make December prices artificially higher. Assumptions made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics about shelter costs during the shutdown kept the cost of rent artificially low. That's expected to correct itself this year.
We could also see the cost of tariffs continue to be passed on to consumers. I'm Nancy Marshall-Genzer for Marketplace.
It is a new year, and with it comes fresh new ways for the world to be in crisis. The Eurasia Group takes a look at this every year and comes up with a list of top global risks for the year ahead. Joining us to talk about it is co-author and Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer. Ian, welcome back. Good to be back with you.
So the number one global risk in 2026 is not the tension between the US and China or Russia. You argue the number one risk is the US itself. Why?
Because the US is the most powerful country in the world and it is undoing both its role in a global order that it's set up. And it's also challenging its own political system. The level of uncertainty, unpredictability, and for others around the world, unreliability that that presents is really unprecedented.
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Chapter 3: What can we expect from the December Consumer Price Index report?
And that, I think, is a danger.
Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group. Thank you so much.
Always great to be with Marketplace.
Our producers are Emma Condon, Tamar Fagan, Ashley Rodriguez, Ariana Rosas, and Erica Soderstrom. Our senior producer is Alex Schroeder. Our supervising senior producer is Meredith Gerritsen-Morby. In New York, I'm Sabri Benishor with the Marketplace Morning Report.
From APM American Public Media. Hey everybody, it's Kyle Rosdahl, the host of Marketplace. It has been a year since the fires here in Los Angeles, and businesses that burned are still struggling.
You know, I won't lie, I've looked. I've looked at, you know, hey, maybe we move the store. It just, it wouldn't be the same hardware store.
On the ground reporting on what the year ahead has in store for business owners still recovering. Listen to Marketplace on your favorite podcast app.
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