Chapter 1: How is the war with Iran affecting gas prices?
On the program today, the week that was, of course, and then petroleum of several different kinds. And look, maybe pour one out for those iconic country stores. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace. In Los Angeles, I'm Kai Risdahl. It is Friday. Today's one is the 3rd of April. Good as always to have you along, everybody.
We are going to dig right in on this Friday because, I mean, have you been following the news? Heather Long is the chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. Jordan Holman is at the New York Times. Hey, you two.
Hi, Kai. Hey, Kai.
Heather, we start with you. We start with the jobs report from this morning for the month of March. 178,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate falls to 4.3 percent. Headline numbers. Very nice. Very good. Thank you very much. Look under the hood for me, would you?
Yeah, sure. So much is moving around the job market. But I think the big picture, if you step back, is we're in a frozen job market. And it's been that way for about a year. And the unemployment rate's been stuck between 4.2 and 4.5%, which, as you point out, not too bad. But
The encouraging news here in 2026 is if you look across January, February, March, we're averaging about 68,000 job gains a month. And it's more than health care. It's manufacturing, construction, hospitality. But if you look at some downsides, a lot of people left the labor force in March, almost 400,000. And many of those were young people in their 20s, early 20s.
And then wage growth is cooling off. just as a lot of people are getting hit with these higher gas prices and other commodities rising.
Yeah, we're going to go wages in a minute with Kaylee Wells. But Jordan, let me turn for just a second to the humble American consumer. You cover retail and corporate stuff for The New York Times. Retail sales up this week. Consumer confidence not so bad. I personally find that pretty interesting given, oh, you know, the news. You?
Right. Yes. I mean, the retail sales does not capture the impact of the war yet.
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Chapter 2: What is the current state of the job market and wage growth?
And I think it's still fair to say that when it comes to the pressures that consumers are facing, it's definitely one battle after another. Like we have the war, we still have... You know, an Oscar reference. We still have the war. We still have inflation.
And what we've been hearing from CEOs of airlines, for example, is saying that, yes, the prices are higher and it will be very dependent on fuel prices. I recently chatted with the CEO of Kraft Heinz and he said right now.
Everything's fine, but it really is dependent on how sustained this issue is, how high the oil goes, because that will flow through the system and will eventually hit consumers. Well, Heather, let me ask you this then, and I want you to draw on the data you have at Navy Federal. When do you guess, how long do you suppose it might be before the war starts showing up in the data?
Because the president the other day said we got two to three more weeks of this.
Yeah, it's a really interesting question, Kai. So we're looking every day at debit card and credit card data. And I have to tell you, March still looks pretty good. And obviously people are spending more at the pump on gas. There was also a ton of spending on airfares. People got the message that if you want to book a summer vacation, you should book ASAP. And we saw a big surge there.
spending on airlines in March. But even across other categories, we didn't really see a pullback. The overall spending picture still looks pretty good in March. But I think you're right. We can start to see some slowdown at the end of March. And I'm really watching carefully eating out, particularly at fast food, fast casual restaurants. That's the easy stuff to cut back on.
Wait, say more about fast casual and eating out stuff, Heather, would you? It's easy to cut back. So people just do without and they cook at home. Is that the deal?
Yes, particularly when you're trying to make up $50 extra a month and spending at the pump. Again, we're seeing a little bit of sign, but not much of it yet.
Right. Jordan, I want to ask about and I know, well, it's been a while since I've asked you this, but but I'm going to go back to the well. We've been relying on consumers in this economy for for low these many decades. And yet we keep seeing them come through for us. And how much longer do you suppose this can go on? Because there is the war. There is uncertainty.
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Chapter 3: How are American consumers responding to rising gas prices?
What we are starting to see, particularly with black women, is they've left the for those who have left the job force, they're turning to entrepreneurship.
So maybe this is also a period of time that we'll see a lot of new companies start. But when they're selling to consumers in that shaky economy, who knows what that equation looks like? Yeah. Jordan Holman at The New York Times, Heather Long at Navy Federal Credit Union. Thanks, you two. Appreciate it.
Thanks, Guy. Have a good weekend.
You, too. Have a nice weekend. Quiet as can be on the corner of Wall Street and Broad today. Markets were closed for Good Friday, which, given the way things have been going, maybe isn't so bad. I don't know.
Nonetheless, we will think of something to say when we do the numbers.
With the monthly jobs report comes a whole slew of other data of particular interest to us today. As we were talking about just a minute ago, up on top hourly wages compared to last year, up three and a half percent. Not so bad. It's ahead of inflation, right? Month to month, though, since February, hourly worker wages eked up just two tenths of one percent.
That is the slowest increase in nearly five years. So short term, somewhat eyebrow raising. But as Marketplace's Kaylee Wells reports, economists are content to just wait and see what happens.
Yes, this month looks bad for wage growth. But let's remember, it's been declining for a while now after the inflationary post pandemic high. And it's just one month.
The data doesn't really point to a sharp deterioration.
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Chapter 4: What differentiates crude oil from natural gas in terms of market impact?
from challenges happening abroad, says Jameson Coughlin with Natural Gas Intelligence.
In Europe right now, the energy ministers have asked to scale back energy consumption. Asia has scrambled for extra cargos and they're taking a hard look at, you know, efficiency measures.
But consumers here don't have to worry about that. Ken Medlock again.
You're not going to see, you know, higher peak prices for electricity, for example. And we're approaching the summer when air conditioning bills go up.
Cheaper natural gas prices are a silver lining as consumers here grapple with higher diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel. I'm Elizabeth Trofal for Marketplace.
Coming up... There's a lot of emotion that gets evoked with these stores.
Old-time country stores in the modern economy. But first, let's do the numbers. U.S. and European markets closed today for the Good Friday holiday, but for the week ending Thursday, that is the four days gone by. The Dow is up 1.2%. The Nasdaq rose 2.2%. The S&P 500 gained 1.6%. American spending on Easter is expected to reach a record $24.9 million this year.
That's from the National Retail Federation. It's a budget of about $195 per person. 92% of those surveyed are planning to buy candy, 64% gifts, 51% clothing. You're listening to Marketplace. This is Marketplace. I'm Kai Risdahl. We've been talking about the price of crude oil nearly daily of late. Both the global benchmark Brent North Sea going today for a bit more than $109 a barrel.
And West Texas Intermediate, that's the U.S. standard price today, as I said a minute ago, at $111 a barrel. The thing I want to point out, though, is that that price gap with the global benchmark cheaper today, then the U.S. standard is exactly the opposite of how things usually go. West Texas is usually less expensive than Brent. So we have called Tom Kloza.
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Chapter 5: Why is the U.S. insulated from natural gas price spikes?
And right now we're trading WTI for May delivery and we're trading Brent for June. And believe it or not, that difference of month has increased. you know, difference of tens of dollars a barrel in the price. But right now, the thing to remember about crude is everybody needs it now, and they're going to pay $10, $20, $30 more for it now than what sometimes the futures market might indicate.
So let's go there for just a second and briefly. The difference between a spot price, which is what people are paying to get it now, and these future prices, what usually gets quoted, that's actually affecting the market right now, that difference, isn't it? Absolutely. I mean, yesterday we saw the highest price ever paid in the North Sea. It's $142 a barrel. Wait, sorry, sorry. Say that again.
$142 a barrel? Yeah, $142 a barrel. The actual physical prices for spot, you know, they call them wet barrels. And those prices are much, much higher than the futures numbers you see. Gotcha. Okay, so on the futures numbers, usually what happens is there's a spread between West Texas on the low end and Brent on the high end. Why do they trade futures specifically differently that way?
Well, it has vagaries in the way that it's delivered. And in WTI, they have to make it available in Oklahoma around the 20th of the month. For North Sea crude, it trades out further because they have to schedule the crude so far in advance. And normally, WTI is cheaper than Brent. But right now, if you were looking at the same month, Brent is much more expensive.
And the physical prices for both crudes are Right. Do you read anything into the fact that the usual spread between West Texas on the low end and Brent on the high end in the futures market is now inverted and that Brent is cheaper and West Texas is more expensive? Or is that nothing to think about? It's really, it's a little bit misleading. And this is incredible.
But, you know, it used to cost just a few dollars to send WTI from, let's say, the Gulf of Mexico to Europe. Nowadays, it probably costs about $15 to $20 a barrel. So you've got incredible freight prices around the world right now. The biggest winners in this entire enterprise are the people that own tankers. OK, spitball this for me, would you? We were talking before we turn the microphones on.
You've been doing this for for almost 50 years now. Yeah. Apply that knowledge to this situation and tell me what the next, I don't know, six months in the energy economy looks like. You know, it's tough to really pick it for six months. I've been doing this for about 50 years, and this by far is the greatest loss of actual physical barrels that we've ever seen. Unprecedented.
And quite frankly, to figure out the price three or six months from now is really kind of a mathematical abstraction. The people that I listen to and that I watch for this really believe that we're possibly going to $150 to $180 a barrel. There's even a case that could be made for $240, which would really knock the world through recession without question. Without any question at all.
Tom Closey, he's at Golf Now, been doing this for a very long time. Tom, thanks a lot. I appreciate your insights. Nice to be here. Have a great weekend. Even if you've never been to New England, you've probably at least seen pictures of the country stores that are so iconic in that part of the country.
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Chapter 6: How are historic New England country stores adapting to modern challenges?
Richard says her profit margins are tight, sometimes as low as half a percent. For another struggling general store in Harrisville, New Hampshire, the solution was to get out of the for-profit realm altogether. We're a historic preservation organization, so running a general store wasn't the original plan.
John Knight is the executive director of Historic Harrisville, a nonprofit that works to preserve the town's historic buildings. It bought the Harrisville General Store in 2008 and hired a manager to operate it like any other shop. But the nonprofit also runs a campaign each year, raising $40,000 to $50,000 specifically for the store.
That brings the bottom line to about zero at the end of the year. And since we're a nonprofit, if we're breaking even and serving a community purpose, then that's really considered a success for us. Of course, most country stores operate on a more traditional for-profit model. Damaris Graham and her sister, Mariana Gibaldi, are planning to reopen the Gilson Village store in a couple months.
The last owner closed it a few years ago, but it first opened in the 1800s. This is Graham.
I live right down the street and I drive past this store every day. It's just been sitting empty. So when I saw the Forint sign, I thought, this is what I'm meant to do.
The sisters plan to stock basic grocery and convenience items like milk and toilet paper. The area is rural. Some people in the region have to drive an hour-round trip to get to a grocery store in the nearest city.
Logistically, it's easier to have a general store right down the street that you can get all your essential stuff at. But you can also chat with neighbors and everyone knows everyone. And to me, it's just deeper than going in and out of a store.
Graham is counting on what was true 200 years ago to still be true today. There's no need to schlep to the big city when you can just stop by your local country store. I'm Jackie Harris for Marketplace.
This final note on the way out today in which maybe it's just me, but this seems icky. SpaceX, as you perhaps heard, has filed for its initial public offering. Details TBD probably coming in June. High-powered IPOs like this are big business for the big Wall Street banks that help bring companies to market. But... And I saw this in The New York Times today.
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