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Marketplace All-in-One

When the job market is a "complicated, unusual, difficult situation"

11 Dec 2025

Transcription

Chapter 1: Why does the Federal Reserve think the labor market is weaker than it appears?

1.499 - 24.338 Sabri Beneshour

The labor market might be a lot weaker than we thought. From Marketplace, I'm Sabri Beneshour, in for David Brancaccio. The Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates again at its meeting yesterday. One reason it decided to do that is because Fed officials think the labor market, which we already knew is cooling, is actually a lot weaker than it appears.

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24.518 - 26.882 Sabri Beneshour

Marketplace's Nancy Marshall-Genzer has that.

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26.862 - 48.263 Nancy Marshall-Genzer

Fed Chair Jerome Powell says the Fed is facing, quote, a complicated, unusual, difficult situation because the Bureau of Labor Statistics could be overestimating the number of jobs being created by about 60,000 a month. Powell says the actual number could be negative, a loss of 20,000 jobs per month. The Fed Chair says this kind of forecasting is tough.

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48.361 - 60.777 Unknown

It's very difficult to estimate job growth in real time. They don't count everybody. They have a survey. And there's been something of a systematic overcount. And so we expected, and they correct it twice a year.

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60.817 - 67.105 Nancy Marshall-Genzer

The BLS is going to change its modeling a bit. That could make the numbers more accurate starting this February.

Chapter 2: What challenges does Jerome Powell discuss regarding job growth estimation?

67.445 - 72.632 Nancy Marshall-Genzer

But in the meantime, Powell says, we're in a situation... Where job creation may actually be negative.

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72.752 - 77.338 Unknown

Now, supply of workers has also gone way down. So the unemployment rate hasn't moved that much.

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77.318 - 93.437 Nancy Marshall-Genzer

which could be giving workers a false sense of security. The BLS is scheduled to release the November jobs numbers next week. Jobs data from this fall is late and in some cases incomplete because of the government shutdown. I'm Nancy Marshall-Genzer for Marketplace.

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93.417 - 113.502 Sabri Beneshour

Something else Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned yesterday was tariff inflation. He said import taxes should be just a one-time bump in inflation. Diane Swonk is chief economist at KPMG and joins us for more. Hey, Diane. So if tariffs are a one-time deal, are we past tariff inflation yet?

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114.308 - 120.696 Diane Swonk

Well, first of all, we're not past it. And he didn't say we were past it yet. But an important issue is that's at the heart of the debate at the Fed.

Chapter 3: Are we past tariff inflation according to Fed Chair Jerome Powell?

121.197 - 135.135 Diane Swonk

Tariffs are typically a one-time bump in prices. And so that is historically what you would count on. But that assumes that the tariffs occur all at once. Of course, they've been moved out in waves. And it also assumes they don't come on the heels.

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135.115 - 163.789 Diane Swonk

of a pandemic induced inflation that's persisted for nearly five years now and so the debate at the fed is some people saying listen this should be over soon we'll get through it and we can sort of look through it a bit and try to stimulate the labor market in the interim between those people who are worried that maybe this is a more entrenched bout of inflation that isn't as easily um sort of resolving on itself and that's the heart of this sort of very intense debate we see within the fed

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163.769 - 171.62 Sabri Beneshour

You know, if tariff inflation is tariffs on particular goods that we import, how does that spread any further than that?

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172.381 - 185.659 Diane Swonk

Well, there's oftentimes what we call opportunistic pricing, and that is areas that are protected by tariffs. Even if they're not specifically feeling tariffs, they can raise their prices, too. We saw that back in the trade war with China, where

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185.639 - 207.142 Diane Swonk

you know, the price of washers were tariffed, the price of dryers were not, yet they both went up by the same amount because they tend to be sold together. And so we know that there is contagion from tariffs as well. We also know that tariffs actually feed into service sector prices, a lot of medical equipment and, you know, personal protection equipment that was so important during the pandemic.

207.522 - 209.644 Diane Swonk

A lot of that is heavily tariffed at the moment.

210.145 - 212.407 Sabri Beneshour

Diane Swonk, Chief Economist at KPMG.

Chapter 4: How do tariffs impact inflation and pricing in the economy?

212.447 - 242.745 Sabri Beneshour

Thank you so much. Russia's war on Ukraine continues. Central to this fight is drone warfare and the industry that makes it possible. The BBC's Gideon Long filed this report.

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244.648 - 264.998 Unknown

In a clearing in a forest in Ukraine, a soldier sends a drone high into the air. It's a small device, maybe 30 centimetres across, with rotor blades on each corner. A standard commercial drone. The kind of thing you might use to take aerial footage at your wedding or birthday party. But strap a bomb to it and it becomes a deadly weapon.

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265.499 - 286.737 Unknown

The Russians and Ukrainians have used them to devastating effect. Before Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, there were just a handful of companies in Ukraine making drones. Now there are hundreds. Stacey Pettijohn is director of the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security in Washington and the author of several reports on drone warfare.

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287.198 - 293.807 Stacey Pettijohn

This has been the first full-blown drone war ever. In Ukraine, you found that there are a million small startups.

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Chapter 5: What role does drone warfare play in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

293.887 - 307.359 Stacey Pettijohn

There are a ton of mom-and-pop shops where people are making drones and assembling them in their apartments, in their garages, and donating them to the forces, in addition to established industries.

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307.899 - 319.63 Unknown

Ksenia Kalmas is one of those mom-and-pop drone producers. Before the war, she was a floral artist with a flower shop in Kiev. But after 2022, she set up a company called Klin Drones.

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319.762 - 335.107 Ksenia Kalmas

It was just obvious decision for me. I just wanted to help my country, help my people and military. I helped them with different stuff. And at that moment, I realized that all the requests were for drones.

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335.528 - 344.402 Unknown

And where do you get the parts for the drones from? Do you have to buy them in the frames or are you producing them yourselves using 3D printers? Where do you get the parts?

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344.72 - 353.953 Ksenia Kalmas

we are focused on Ukrainian components mostly. We don't want to give money to China. So we buy components in Ukraine.

354.102 - 358.85 Unknown

Ksenia's company relies on donations, but elsewhere drones are big business.

Chapter 6: How has the drone industry evolved in Ukraine since the war began?

359.451 - 377.983 Unknown

US company AeroVironment has seen its share price soar over 500% since the invasion of Ukraine. Portugal's Tekova is valued at over a billion dollars. And Germany's Stark is also expanding its operations. So what are the likely next developments in drone warfare?

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377.963 - 392.985 Unknown

At the moment, many drones have to be guided to their targets by an operator, an actual human being with a remote control panel standing within range of the drone and therefore often in danger. But Stacey Pettyjohn at the Centre for a New American Security says that will evolve.

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392.965 - 400.96 Stacey Pettijohn

I do think there are going to be further changes in the future as autonomy advances. That's going to be the next real shift.

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400.98 - 409.376 Unknown

In the meantime, back in Kiev, former floral artist Ksenia Kalmas says she will continue to assemble small, cheap drones for use on the front line.

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410.438 - 422.5 Sabri Beneshour

That's Gideon Long with the BBC. In New York, I'm Sabree Beneshour with the Marketplace Morning Report. From APM American Public Media.

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