Chapter 1: How is the war with Iran affecting gas prices?
On the program today, the week that was, of course, and then petroleum of several different kinds. And look, maybe pour one out for those iconic country stores. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace. In Los Angeles, I'm Kai Risdahl. It is Friday. Today's one is the 3rd of April. Good as always to have you along, everybody.
We are going to dig right in on this Friday because, I mean, have you been following the news? Heather Long is the chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. Jordan Holman is at the New York Times. Hey, you two.
Hi, Kai. Hey, Kai.
Heather, we start with you. We start with the jobs report from this morning for the month of March. 178,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate falls to 4.3 percent. Headline numbers. Very nice. Very good. Thank you very much. Look under the hood for me, would you?
Yeah, sure. So much is moving around the job market. But I think the big picture, if you step back, is we're in a frozen job market. And it's been that way for about a year. And the unemployment rate's been stuck between 4.2 and 4.5%, which, as you point out, not too bad. But
The encouraging news here in 2026 is if you look across January, February, March, we're averaging about 68,000 job gains a month. And it's more than health care. It's manufacturing, construction, hospitality. But if you look at some downsides, a lot of people left the labor force in March, almost 400,000. And many of those were young people in their 20s, early 20s.
And then wage growth is cooling off. just as a lot of people are getting hit with these higher gas prices and other commodities rising.
Yeah, we're going to go wages in a minute with Kaylee Wells. But Jordan, let me turn for just a second to the humble American consumer. You cover retail and corporate stuff for The New York Times. Retail sales up this week. Consumer confidence not so bad. I personally find that pretty interesting given, oh, you know, the news. You?
Right. Yes.
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Chapter 2: What is the current state of the U.S. job market?
We still have inflation. And what we've been hearing from CEOs of airlines, for example, is saying that, yes, the prices are higher and it will be very dependent on fuel prices. I recently chatted with the CEO of Kraft Heinz and he said right now.
Everything's fine, but it really is dependent on how sustained this issue is, how high the oil goes, because that will flow through the system and will eventually hit consumers. Well, Heather, let me ask you this then, and I want you to draw on the data you have at Navy Federal. When do you guess, how long do you suppose it might be before the war starts showing up in the data?
Because the president the other day said we got two to three more weeks of this.
Yeah, it's a really interesting question, Kai. So we're looking every day at debit card and credit card data. And I have to tell you, March still looks pretty good. And obviously people are spending more at the pump on gas. There was also a ton of spending on airfares. People got the message that if you want to book a summer vacation, you should book ASAP. And we saw a big surge there.
spending on airlines in March. But even across other categories, we didn't really see a pullback. The overall spending picture still looks pretty good in March. But I think you're right. We can start to see some slowdown at the end of March. And I'm really watching carefully eating out, particularly at fast food, fast casual restaurants. That's the easy stuff to cut back on.
Wait, say more about fast casual and eating out stuff, Heather, would you? It's easy to cut back. So people just do without and they cook at home. Is that the deal?
Yes, particularly when you're trying to make up $50 extra a month and spending at the pump. Again, we're seeing a little bit of sign, but not much of it yet.
Right. Jordan, I want to ask about and I know, well, it's been a while since I've asked you this, but but I'm going to go back to the well. We've been relying on consumers in this economy for for low these many decades. And yet we keep seeing them come through for us. And how much longer do you suppose this can go on? Because there is the war. There is uncertainty.
There is, as we're going to hear from from Kelly Wells in a minute, wage concerns. Right. Consumers at some point have to say, you know what? I'm out, man. Forget it.
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Chapter 3: Why are wage growth trends slowing in the U.S.?
For the top of the K, families earning over $150,000 a year, not so bad right now. They don't love the pump, but they're doing it and still spending. But the middle class, it's the Costco economy. People are really shifting their spending, trying to stretch every dollar.
Jordan, last word to you, and we go back to the labor market on this one. It has to be said that there are, for as good as the data was and for all the things that we've said about it the last six or seven minutes, there are some losers, right? I mean, black unemployment is still very elevated, plus 7% or something like that. The long-term unemployed is up as well.
So, you know, there's a cautionary tale in there somewhere. Absolutely. I mean, the black unemployment is always a canary in the coal mine when it comes to this economy. And the fact that it's double what it is for overall unemployment really tells you something.
Chapter 4: How is consumer spending impacted by rising gas prices?
What we are starting to see, particularly with black women, is they've left the for those who have left the job force, they're turning to entrepreneurship.
So maybe this is also a period of time that we'll see a lot of new companies start. But when they're selling to consumers in that shaky economy, who knows what that equation looks like? Yeah. Jordan Holman at The New York Times, Heather Long at Navy Federal Credit Union. Thanks, you two. Appreciate it.
Thanks, Guy. Have a good weekend.
You, too. Have a nice weekend. Quiet as can be on the corner of Wall Street and Broad today. Markets were closed for Good Friday, which, given the way things have been going, maybe isn't so bad. I don't know.
Nonetheless, we will think of something to say when we do the numbers.
With the monthly jobs report comes a whole slew of other data of particular interest to us today. As we were talking about just a minute ago, up on top hourly wages compared to last year, up three and a half percent. Not so bad. It's ahead of inflation, right? Month to month, though, since February, hourly worker wages eked up just two tenths of one percent.
That is the slowest increase in nearly five years. So short term, somewhat eyebrow raising. But as Marketplace's Kaylee Wells reports, economists are content to just wait and see what happens.
Yes, this month looks bad for wage growth. But let's remember, it's been declining for a while now after the inflationary post pandemic high. And it's just one month.
The data doesn't really point to a sharp deterioration.
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