Time for a diesel export ban?
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Why are lawmakers pushing for a diesel export ban and what could go wrong?
Coming up today on the program, be very careful what you wish for. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace.
In Los Angeles, I'm Kai Risdell. Tuesday today, the 22nd of September. Good as it always is to have you along, everybody. We're going to begin today with a story from the file I keep on my computer labeled, Are you really sure you want to do that? Depending on which official in the Trump administration you listen to, we are either looking at a temporary ban on exports of diesel fuel. That was Treasury Secretary Scott Besson today. Or calling for a ban. That was the president of the United Nations today. Various and sundry senators and governors have said essentially the same thing, trying to get the government to do something to bring diesel down off its record highs, $6.52 a gallon today on average, says AAA.
This, though, is where I should probably tell you that the subheading on that computer file is good examples of the law of unintended consequences. Here's Marketplace's Samantha Fields.
When Sarah Dane last bought diesel for her farm equipment back in July, she paid $3.60 a gallon. Which
was still a little over a dollar more than I paid a year before that.
Dane owns Fresh Hopped Farm, about 700 acres in eastern Montana. We grow corn, soybeans, and wheat with some alfalfa. She's already harvested the wheat for the season, which took about 1,000 gallons of diesel. Now it's time to fill up
her tanks again. I got my prices this morning, and regular diesel is $6.14, and the dyed diesel that goes in the tractors is $5.60. So if I fill both of my tanks, which are both currently empty, it will cost me $11,740 as of this morning.
That strain on farmers is why some officials are calling for a ban on diesel exports.
Sounds like a fairly easy thing to do that would maybe increase the supply of domestic diesel.
But Hugh Daigle at the University of Texas at Austin says while it might reduce prices temporarily...
In the long term, it's probably not such a great idea.
Diesel is a global market, and Bob McNally at Rapidan Energy Group says if you were to pull U.S. exports out of that market...
You would see global prices for diesel skyrocket.
That would immediately push prices up on the east and west coasts, where most diesel is imported. Even though the U.S. produces plenty, there's no good way to transport it across the country.
Now, for a brief period of time, the pump price in Texas and Louisiana and some of the Midwestern states would collapse.
But McNally says oil refiners would then see their profits collapse, too.
And in response to that, refiners will reduce their production.
Which would then push prices back up. I'm Samantha Fields for Marketplace.
Consequences of the unintended kind. In lower Manhattan today, the corner of Wall Street and Broad, not a whole lot of equity enthusiasm. Bonds held pretty much steady. Oil down again. We will have the details when we do the numbers.
The big economic event of the week is Chinese President Xi Jinping's state visit. Artificial intelligence is, of course, going to get all the headlines. The war in the Middle East and its associated issues will get some agenda time, too. But as always, it would be a very big mistake to sleep on the trade relationship between the two biggest economies on the planet. So we have called Chad Bowne. He's a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics to get some insights. Chad, it's good to have you on. Thanks for having me. Give me a general sense, would you, Chad, of the state of play right now trade wise between these two countries?
Not good. I mean, in a sense, things have stabilized. So things got really, really bad in 2025, obviously, with the United States imposing massive tariffs on China, China responding with tariffs of their own, imposing export restrictions. Trade really plummeted. But since the meeting last year and then especially given the Supreme Court decision in February that forced the Trump administration to replace a lot of those 2025 tariffs, trade has leveled off both U.S.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
Why are lawmakers pushing for a diesel export ban and what could go wrong?
0:01–5:31
2
How would a diesel export ban affect U.S. farmers like Sarah Dane?
5:31–10:32
3
What do energy experts say about the long‑term impact of stopping diesel exports?
10:32–15:32
4
How are Brent futures prices diverging from physical oil prices right now?
15:32–21:10
5
What’s the current state of U.S.–China trade ahead of the Trump‑Xi summit?
21:10–26:26