What if Trump does roll back steel and aluminum tariffs?
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How might rolling back steel and aluminum tariffs affect consumers?
Holiday week or not, the economy doesn't stop, and neither does the flow of economic data. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace.
In New York, I'm Kristen Schwab in for Kyra's doll. It's Monday, February 16th. Good to be here with you. It's just one of those weeks that can only be described as a data dump. We're going to get the latest GDP figures on Friday and a bunch of numbers about housing, consumer spending and inflation along the way. Let's take it one day at a time, though. Tomorrow comes manufacturing data from the Federal Reserve and some of its regional banks. Early indications suggest manufacturing activity has been picking up so far in 2026. Marketplace's Justin Ho looks into whether that could continue and whether that could translate into more manufacturing employment.
Last year wasn't exactly a stable one for the manufacturing sector, thanks to tariffs, high interest rates, and a shaky global economy. But this year, manufacturers have a few things working for them, says Scott Paul, president of the Alliance for American Manufacturing.
The tax environment is favorable. If interest rates at least stabilize, there'll be some relief for consumers and for businesses.
Paul says lower interest rates might spur more demand for appliances, vehicles, and other manufactured goods. Plus, the big wave of AI investment will push up demand for the equipment that goes into data centers.
So I think there's a lot of potential areas for growth that could aid in the demand for manufacturing as well.
Manufacturers surveyed by the Institute for Supply Management last month said new orders picked up for the first time since August. But the same report found that employment shrank at the same time.
Even if new orders come back. It's going to be a bit before folks start being comfortable making permanent decisions like hiring people.
Susan Spence is chair of ISM's Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. She says the big factor causing manufacturers to hold off is tariff uncertainty.
That's kind of frozen action on folks to say, we don't know where the next one's coming from. And even if something gets struck down, if the administration turns around and levies it in a different way, we're in this for a while.
Spence says manufacturers have also just been through a year of slow demand, so they have plenty of capacity to make goods without hiring new staff.
They can, you know, put additional shifts on or pay overtime. And I imagine that's what they're going to do until they see that the order book is a little more solid.
That's why Spence says manufacturing employment tends to lag behind manufacturing activity. I'm Justin Ho for Marketplace.
The latest in the will he or won't he tariff situation is that a rollback on aluminum and steel taxes might be on the horizon. The decision could affect everything from ovens to beer cans. White House officials say no verdict has been made yet. And yes, I know it's kind of impossible to keep track of every bit of tariff news coming out of this administration. But we're paying special attention to this one because a change to aluminum and steel tariffs could affect more goods than any import tax rollback yet. Marketplace's Kaylee Wells explains why.
Sure, these metals are in cars and cabinet hinges and pie tins, but it's also used in just about everything, says Philip Luck at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Everything you consume either has some steel and aluminum or steel and aluminum was used to move it, power it, or make it.
Even, say, paper needs a metal blade to cut down the tree and a metal-laden truck and forklift to ship and move the logs.
A supply chain just has these heavy elements, these heavy products in them throughout.
The question is, how much would that rollback impact most of us?
The larger consumer pain points aren't going to be fundamentally shaken by what happens on these metal tariffs.
Economist and UCLA law professor Kimberly Clausing says consumers are struggling with the cost of health care and housing and groceries.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
How might rolling back steel and aluminum tariffs affect consumers?
0:01–4:55
2
What are the current conditions in the manufacturing sector for 2026?
4:55–10:23
3
How do tariffs impact manufacturers' hiring decisions?
10:23–15:14
4
What are the implications of potential tariff rollbacks on everyday products?
15:14–26:00