Markets Wrap: Oil Rises, Tech Falters: What Investors Need to Know

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Previously titled “MTM_ROUNDUP_100726_V1” — renamed by the publisher on Aug 3, 2026

Merryn Talks Money 19 min 8 speakers 4 chapters transcribed 2 months ago

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Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.

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John Stepek 1:35

Welcome to the Merrin Talks Money Market Wrap, where we talk about the biggest moves in markets this week and what's driving them. I'm John Stepik, senior reporter and author of the award-winning Money Distilled newsletter. And joining me while Merrin is out is Morwenna Conium. Morwenna is co-editor of the Bloomberg Markets Today blog in London and writes about UK assets, economics and markets more generally. Morwenna, thank you so much for joining us again.

Morwenna Conium 2:00

Thank you for having me.

John Stepek 2:01

Well Ben, thanks for joining me. Now we're recording this in the morning of July 8th, Wednesday, and so by the time you listen to this, things may have changed, but hopefully the themes that we discuss are fairly long running. So today we're going to talk about the on-again, off-again ceasefire in Iran, whether the AI bubble has burst thanks to Meta's CEO, and what all this means for UK markets and your money. The Iran ceasefire has been on again and then off again. And at the moment, it's off again. I'm sure that we may see fluctuations in that status over the coming days. But for now, that certainly can only put the wind up the market a bit.

Morwenna Conium 2:42

It has. We've seen quite a big escalation in bond yields, thanks to an oil price spike following comments from US President Donald Trump. As far as he's concerned, the ceasefire is over. Of course, there may well be a lot of further developments on that topic. But we are seeing some of the bond rally really pulling back. Bonds are falling in Europe and particularly the UK as those inflation concerns start to creep back into people's minds. And we're seeing that in central bank bets as well. Those hiking bets are being added to today. still only pricing in at the moment one hike from the Bank of England this year. But there's about one in three chance now that there might be a second one. And it's up quite considerably from where we were earlier in the week.

Morwenna Conium 3:34

So at the moment, that's the trajectory. But I think what it really shows is that there is still a lot of volatility and a lot of uncertainty. And I'd say for the last month or so, the market has started to be pricing in a degree of stability, thinking this ceasefire is going to hold, and that the second half of the year would be one of lower oil prices and improvement. We're still not back where we were, but I think things are a lot less settled than perhaps had started to be deemed the case.

John Stepek 4:09

MARK BLYTH I think the thing that's struck me since this began is that on the one hand, it's not a good idea to second guess the market. But at the same time, the level of complacency and faith that this would all come out in the wash, the fact that oil prices were down to where they were at the start of this conflict back at the end of February,