economic update: fuel prices, oil, interest rates & inflation (with Brian Parker, Chief Economist at ART)
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How do global oil supply chains impact fuel prices?
How do global oil supply chains effectively flow through – like I fueled up here in Newcastle at Carrington the other day. My diesel was over freaking $3 a litre. How does the supply chains actually work and why have advanced economies like Australia effectively outsourced the refining? And I'm just throwing you all these questions, Brian, to solve the problem. No, that's fine. And, you know, if things do cool down – How long will it take for fuel and diesel prices to maybe get back to normal? And before Brian Parker from Australian Retirement Trust answers this question, we actually are recording on the 10th of April at about 11 a.m. Yeah, can you solve all the world's problems, Brian, particularly with my diesel Ranger that I need to fill up?
Look, this has been a massive, massive shock to the system. And it's really, really hard to identify when this is going to come to an end. But basically, if you think about the impact on Australia, fuel prices have gone up because we import the lion's share of our crude oil. We also import refined petroleum products like jet fuel, the petrol we fill up our tanks with, our diesel. mostly comes from refineries in Asia, overwhelmingly, particularly Singapore, but not just Singapore. And generally speaking, they refine oil that comes through the Straits of Hormuz and hence from the Middle East. So given any boats that were already on the way to Singapore, yes, they've obviously still made it, but there's still this massive backlog, obviously, because very few boats, if any, are getting through the Straits of Hormuz.
World oil prices have obviously shot up given the restriction on supply. And that's flowed through to the bowser very, very quickly. But it's not just the oil price. I think the other thing we need to keep in mind is that, yes, the price of the bowser is what we see, but it feeds through into other things over time, things like plastics, which are heavily dependent on petroleum product. And that flows through into things like our packaging, our building materials, plumbing supplies and things like that. But it's also fertilizer. You know, a lot of the sulfur we use in fertilizer comes as a byproduct of oil refining. And so it's going to impact food prices over time as well. So the impacts are likely to last a bit longer than just the impact on the petrol price.
And even if peace were to break out tomorrow, it could be many, many weeks, if not a few months, before we start to see supply chains normalise. There's still this massive backlog of of ships waiting to get through the strait. But not only that, there's a lot of production facilities in the Middle East that have basically been closed down to get ready for – to really cope with this disaster. So it'll take time for them to sort of get back up and running, notwithstanding also the damage that's been done, which will need to be repaired.
Yeah, that's an important point as well because the – it's – from what I've understood, it's not easy just to turn off and turn on an oil plant. And if they do refine the oil, well, if the ships aren't moving, what are we going to do with it? So it's kind of cascades. That's very much.
Yeah, exactly. So you've got all these ships currently, um, that are stranded effectively, um, in the Gulf. And even if you reopen the Straits, it's going to take a while for that backlog to get through. They've got to then unload and go back and collect more stuff. So like I said, this is going to take time. Even if we do get a settlement of this war tomorrow, the impacts on the economy and the impacts on the prices we pay for a range of different things could persist for quite a while.
So with the, I guess we see on the news the price of a barrel of oil, and we know that one barrel could make, I don't know, I'm making this up, you might know, 60% regular unleaded, 20% diesel, 20% jet fuel, because they use different parts of the process.
Why have fuel prices surged and when might they normalize?
Yeah, correct. So if only 20% of the world's oil does come through one part... Why do the prices move so savagely based on 20%?
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
How do global oil supply chains impact fuel prices?
0:06–4:21
2
Why have fuel prices surged and when might they normalize?
4:21–9:44
3
What are the implications of fuel prices on inflation and the economy?
9:44–15:51
4
How do interest rates respond to inflationary pressures?
15:51–18:39
5
What factors influence the decision-making of central banks?
18:39–23:54
6
What is stagflation and how does it affect the economy?
23:54–31:28
7
How is the property market expected to evolve in the current climate?
31:28–36:49
8
What advice should investors consider during economic volatility?
36:49–1:15:24
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