DOGE, apples and irregular migrants

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More or Less 28 min 5 speakers 4 chapters transcribed 1 month ago
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

Unknown 0:00
BBC Sounds. Music, radio, podcasts.
Tim Harford 0:05
Hello and welcome to More or Less. We are the very model of a modern news statistics show. Expect economics, fact checks and many cheerful facts about the square of the hypotenuse. And in particular, expect us to investigate the claim that one in 12 Londoners is an illegal immigrant, which comes from, well, not the source you might expect. And the claim that New Zealand apples are particularly environmentally friendly, which comes from exactly the source you might expect, namely New Zealand. Our loyal listeners are wondering whether VAT on private schools really has boosted the rate of inflation, or if that's just a media concoction. But first, it's been 12 weeks since President Trump announced the formation of DOGE, the so-called Department of Government Efficiency.
Tim Harford 0:55
Led, or not led, but definitely quite led by his special advisor, Elon Musk. Musk claimed that he could save the US government $2 trillion a year. We asked Linda Bilmes, someone who was part of the team who actually balanced the US budget under President Clinton, whether this was plausible.
Charlotte McDonald 1:17
The two trillion number over a decade is a realistic goal. But the only way you could cut two trillion out of the budget in a year is in the shooting yourself in the head kind of mechanism.
Tim Harford 1:31
Cool. Since then, there have been a raft of cuts to public spending and claims about various acts of fraud that probably haven't happened. To celebrate their achievement, we have compiled a lovely little presentation. I do hope you enjoy. In the last week of January, the USAID website went offline and thousands of US workers abroad were told to return home. President Trump announced that the Department of Government Efficiency had saved the US tons of money, including... We identified and stopped $50 million being sent to Gaza to buy condoms for Hamas. $50 million.
Unknown 2:16
There is a report, or was a report, of all of their condom procurement that showed that none of it had gone to Gaza. That report has now been taken down, along with the entire U.S. Agency for International Development website. So they pointed at one point to funding that was going to field hospitals in Gaza. That was about $50 million, but of course that was for field hospitals. I have no idea where they got the notion that it was for condoms. There is no money, as far as I can tell, going to Gaza for condom procurement. There are a number of different Gaza-related options that this could actually be. Ball funding that is going to Gaza and funding that is going to the Gaza province of Mozambique.
Tim Harford 2:59
The whole condom statistical mishap was inconceivable, but not unique. On to the next one.
Unknown 3:11
There's crazy things, like just a cursory examination of Social Security, and we've got people in there that are 150 years old. Now, do you know anyone that's 150? I don't. OK.
Tim Harford 3:22
Elon Musk. He later tweeted that the Social Security Administration in the United States might be the biggest source of fraud in the whole of human history.
Unknown 3:34
Perhaps the most shocking was the revelation that deceased people who would have been 120 to 150 years old are still receiving social security payments totaling billions of dollars per month.
Tim Harford 3:49
This turned out to be just a programming quirk. If the date of birth is not known, the computer system defaults to a date of birth of the 20th of May, 1875, under the star sign, appropriately enough, of Taurus the Bull. More generally, there is a problem. Some people just don't have their deaths recorded in the database, which means that according to the Department of Social Security, there are currently 18.9 million people aged over 100 in the United States, which is definitely not right. And this opens the door to potential fraud. But two reports from the Inspector General found that...

What is DOGE and can it realistically save $2 trillion a year?

Unknown 4:30
Officials also noted that almost none of the 18.9 million number holders currently receive SSA payments.
Tim Harford 4:38
Instead, the type of fraud that occurs is largely immigrants using the social security numbers of dead people to pay taxes so they can get jobs.

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