Has Islamic State been Losing Territory?
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This is the short edition of More or Less, first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
Hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. I'm Ruth Alexander. Later in the programme, we'll be revealing who is the fastest man in the world, Usain Bolt.
Or Arsenal's Spanish defender, Hector Bellerin.
But first, the recent terrorist attacks in Africa, the Middle East and Europe have focused attention on so-called Islamic State.
Warplanes taking off last night to bomb targets in Raqqa, headquarters of so-called Islamic State.
After the horrific terrorist attacks in Paris on the 13th of November, in which 129 people died, Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron spoke to BBC Radio about how successful airstrikes had been in damaging Islamic State, also known as IS or ISIL.
Well, of course, we are using our military hard power in Iraq, directly combating ISIL, and they've lost about 25 to 30% of the territory that they held.
But the BBC's security correspondent, Frank Gardner, is sceptical about those statistics.
There's no question that the airstrikes are hurting them. They are losing, according to the Americans, a mid- or high-level leader practically every day in these airstrikes. But they're able to replenish them. They haven't gone away. The idea that they've lost 25% of their territory, as David Cameron suggested on this programme about an hour ago, is, I think, misleading.
We asked the Prime Minister's office where the numbers had come from and they pointed us to a briefing given by the United States Army Colonel, Steve Warren, back in April. He says that between 25 and 30% of Iraqi land taken by IS had been reclaimed by coalition troops. So is this true? Professor Paul Rogers, the global security consultant for the Oxford Research Group, has some doubts.
It is true that ISIS has been held back from further advances in Iraq. And it has suffered some reversals up in the northeast where the Kurds have made progress and around the town of Tikrit and also Bajji, which are north of Baghdad. But in the major towns, Fallujah, Ramadi, where there's been a long siege, and Mosul, basically it's proved extremely difficult to face down ISIS. And the evidence is that it has actually increased its territory in Syria. So I think you could say 25% to 30% reversal but only by looking at really, frankly, depopulated areas, not the key areas of population.
Indeed, a report to the Foreign Affairs Select Committee in the UK Parliament said some experts believed only 10% to 15% of the land taken in Iraq had been won back. So how can progress be judged in the coalition's war against IS?
I would not actually say that territory is a good measure of success. You want to look at the actual capability of the group. The worrying thing about ISIS is that it is now back to using a tactic that al-Qaeda groups used 10 years ago. It is beginning to stage attacks overseas, whereas until recently it was concentrating almost entirely on developing its own geographical territory, its own caliphate. Now it is actually moving overseas. We've seen it with the terrible attack in Paris, but also with the bombing of the Russian jet and the attack in Beirut, which killed many people.
You're listening to More or Less on the BBC World Service with me, Ruth Alexander.
you'd be forgiven for thinking it was all settled. The world's fastest man is Usain Bolt, the holder of the 100 and 200 metre world records. But there's a new rival, according to Britain's newspapers.
Hector Bellerin is faster than sprint king Usain Bolt.
The Arsenal player officially faster than Usain Bolt. Even the BBC has jumped on the bandwagon in this interview with Arsenal's Spanish defender Hector Bellerin.
4.41 seconds, which is your Arsenal record for 40 metres, is actually quicker than Usain Bolt's first 40 metres when he ran the 100 metres world record. Right. Would you fancy a little head-to-head with the big guy? Well, obviously I would fancy it.
The time they're talking about, 4.41 seconds, is the time the Spaniard achieved over 40 metres in a training session for Arsenal, a club record no less, and faster than the first 40 metres of Usain Bolt's world record-breaking 100 metres in 2009.
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