Numbers of the Year 2014.
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What is the purpose of this episode and who are the contributors?
Thank you for downloading the More or Less podcast from the BBC, statistically proven to be the very best numbers programme around. This is the extended edition of the programme first broadcast on BBC Radio 4. Hello and welcome to a brand new series of More or Less, your weekly guide to the numbers in the news and in life. With every last number of 2014 safely totted up and the unfilled database of 2015 stretching out ahead of us, it's time to find our bearings by asking our favourite people to tell us their favourite numbers of the year just passed, or occasionally the year to come. Where better to start than with David Spiegelhalter, a man who received a knighthood last year for his services to this programme.
I'm sorry, his services to statistics.
My number is £5.7 billion. This was the amount that the Office of National Statistics estimated that prostitution contributed to the economy in 2012. And the reason they had to do this is that EU has now regulated that both prostitution and illegal drugs should be part of national accounts and contribute to GDP. Now, you know, where did they get this figure from? And it's quite difficult to judge. Is that big? Is that small? It's a big number. But the ONS nicely give us a simple spreadsheet and say roughly where they got it from. They estimated there's around 61,000 people working in prostitution in the UK. Average cost per visit is about £67. And that each was seeing about 25 clients a week and working 52 weeks a year.
Multiply those up, and you get £5.7 billion. Now, this figure has been questioned by people close to the profession as being far too high, and I actually agree with them. If we go through those components, the 61,000 probably isn't too bad. It's very difficult to estimate, and the trade is changing so rapidly in that the number of independents now with the internet has grown enormously. You can go onto one website and see 30,000 people operating independently,
I'll take your word for that on that date.
Yeah, exactly. I don't necessarily recommend it, but I've been doing this research. The numbers are there. The numbers are there. And there you also get services and costs. And the average cost of £67 probably isn't too bad. It might be a bit low. But again, as a profession, it's a huge variability between streetwalking to high-class escorts. Probably those numbers aren't too bad. The crucial thing is this assumption that each person working is seeing 1,200 clients a year. And this seems very high indeed. And we can do a few little sort of reality checks on this. It would mean, for example, that everybody working in prostitution was actually turning over £100,000 a year. And this doesn't seem plausible from people who know about these things.
We can also say that the ONS assumptions mean that there's 75 million visits to prostitutes every year in this country. That's one and a half million a week. Now, from an alternative source, the latest NatSAL survey on sexual behavior, estimate that around about 4% of men between 18 and 65 report paying for sex in the last five years. And over the last year, probably figures about half a million. And that may be an underestimate, but probably not too bad. Half a million men paying for sex every year in this country. And you may think that sounds quite a lot, but in order to get to 1.5 million visits per week, each would have to be buying sex three times a week. And that does not reflect, as far as one can see, behaviour.
So I guess my feeling is that this figure is too high. I know ONS are looking into it again. It'll require, I think, really quite a subtle approach in order to get a more realistic figure, and I predict it's going to come down substantially.
You do slightly feel for the Office for National Statistics, because unlike you, David, they're not experts in the sex trade. It's quite difficult to find out all of these things.
How did the ONS estimate the £5.7 billion value of prostitution and is it plausible?
But I suppose what you're saying is that the back of the envelope should have been enough to... to call into question this headline.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the purpose of this episode and who are the contributors?
0:00–3:51
2
How did the ONS estimate the £5.7 billion value of prostitution and is it plausible?
3:51–19:12
3
How did the prostitution GDP estimate affect Britain’s EU bill and GNI?
19:12–23:44
4
Why was the 7 to 1 ratio significant for Brazil in 2014?
23:44–27:41