UK election podcast 2
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Hello and welcome to our second election podcast. I'm Charlotte McDonald. And I'm Ruth Alexander. And if you've heard our first one, you'll know that more or less as Tim Harford and Ruth Alexander have been invited onto Radio 4's PM programme with Eddie Mair to do a daily fact check into the statistics that are being bandied around by politicians during the campaign.
Here are six of the latest topics that have come under our scrutiny.
Topic one, funding the NHS. In a second week of campaigning on Tuesday 7th April, healthcare was making headlines.
The state of your health is of great concern to politicians who want you to vote for them. But they all know that in order just to stand still, the NHS will need to spend much more money than it gets at the moment, raising questions of where it will all come from. Taxes? Cuts in other departments? Last year, a report by the NHS England chief executive, Simon Stevens, said the health service would need an extra £30 billion every year, over and above inflation, just to keep things as they are. Simon Stevens estimated that £22 billion of that £30 billion could come from efficiency savings. The other eight would have to be new money. Ruth Alexander from Radio 4's More or Less has been running her slide rule over the NHS.
Let's start with the basics. Ruth, how much money does the NHS get?
It's a good question. The NHS is divided up by nation in the UK. So in total, the UK spends about £135 billion on the NHS. For a Westminster election, we're arguing about England, and the NHS budget in England is about £150 billion a year. Now, the coalition has had a policy of ring-fencing NHS spending. So, unlike many other departments, health has been protected over the last few years and has even seen its budget go up slightly in real terms over the course of the Parliament. And yet, the NHS has been facing a real squeeze. So, how can that be? Well, the budget hasn't risen as much each year as it used to in the past for a start. So from 1997 to 2009, it rose by about 5.5% on average every year.
What NHS funding shortfall did Simon Stevens estimate and how much is already expected from efficiencies?
In the past four years, it's risen by more like 0.8%. And the problem is we've got a growing population. The population's also grown by about 0.8% every year over the past four years. So you can immediately see a problem with the sums. What's more, we've got an ageing population, and that means doctors and nurses are seeing patients with more complex health needs, which need more time and money to treat. So just to give you an idea, this was a really striking statistic I came across. The Institute for Fiscal Studies reckoned that the actual effect of that ageing population is that there's almost 10% less to spend on each individual as a result. Now, Labour argues that the coalition government is also to blame for
the challenges the NHS has been facing. It points to the fact that other areas like the social care budget has been cut, meaning that people who in the past would have been helped by social care staff are now turning up at A&E, perhaps with more acute problems than they would have done. However, it's actually hard to prove that with data, but experts I've spoken to do say they think it is happening.
Ruth, I mentioned this £30 billion figure. Just dig deep into that for me. How much does the NHS really need in future?
Yeah, well, so this number came from a report by the head of NHS England, Simon Stevens, as you mentioned. The report came out in October. And basically it said that the NHS is facing an annual £30 billion shortfall by 2020. Now, this £30 billion black hole, that doesn't actually mean the budget has to go up by £30 billion. I mean, he's made an estimate of how much the services need will cost annually. and that it would be £30 billion to keep things as they are, the standard as they are, if we didn't manage to make the NHS more efficient and productive. But if we can deliver NHS services in a more efficient way and get more treatments per pound, then we won't need an extra £30 billion. It could be £5 billion, £10 billion extra that politicians have to spend.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–2:14
2
What NHS funding shortfall did Simon Stevens estimate and how much is already expected from efficiencies?
2:14–7:12
3
How much does the NHS in England currently spend and why does the budget feel squeezed despite protection?
7:12–15:48
4
What does the £30 billion NHS ‘black hole’ actually mean for future spending needs?
15:48–24:43
5
How would a 1% public spending cut affect departmental budgets and who bears the burden?
24:43–27:31