2025 Market Predictions: Tariff Impact, Crypto, Mega-Mergers and More
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What predictions are made for the stock market in 2025?
We broke it down with investing expert Anne Barry. It's Tuesday, December 31st. Let's ride!
Holy cow, it's the last day of the year. What a ride it has been. Tobi, favorite memory from 2024?
Wow, favorite memory from 2024. It's got to be that 3-wood I hit on 18. 265 uphill carry. No, I'm just kidding. Probably it is related to the podcast. Seeing Spotify Rap come out recently, that was a highlight. Doing the in-person trivia night we hosted in New York, that was a highlight. Too many to choose from, so I'm just going to say my favorite memory is doing the podcast every day with you.
Awesome. To wrap up the year, we are continuing our special holiday episodes with a show all about markets. The stock market had a banging year in 2024, but what should you be looking out for in 2025?
To help, we had a chat with the incredible Anne Barry, the host of the Brews' markets-focused podcast, After Earnings. Okay, Anne, thanks so much for joining us.
I'm ready to dig in, guys. This is going to be exciting 2025.
And we're about to dig in right now. One of the biggest themes for markets in 2025 is going to be the policies of the incoming administration, particularly Trump's signature policy proposal to enact sweeping tariffs.
How will tariffs impact the economy and stock market?
Just to recap for everyone, Trump has pledged on day one that he'll impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the US's two largest trading partners, and an additional 10% tariffs on China. On the campaign trial, he also mentioned slapping across-the-board tariffs on 10% on all goods coming into the US, but we haven't really heard any more details on that. And tariffs of this scale would provide a major shock to the economy, upending global supply chains and likely raising consumer prices for Americans. How should we think about the stock market's response to Trump's ultra-aggressive trade posturing?
I think we've already seen this dark market response, right? Because you remember, originally when he came out, he said, I'm going to slap 60% to 100% tariffs across the board on China. And guess what the market did? Well, we've just been going through all-time high after all-time high after all-time high. So I think people just really... So you're saying investors are expecting the tariffs to not materialize? I think they were expecting some tariffs to materialize. I just don't think they expect to see it at the scale that's being thrown out there right now. And actually, I went back, I nerded out on this because I just love to nerd out on this stuff. I went back to see what happened under the last tariff program.
Came to around $200 to $400 impact per US household per year, which is not nothing. That's meaningful. But it wasn't, you know, as catastrophic as people thought. So people are saying we'll be okay.
Let's dive into some of the sectors though that could be most affected. Sectors of the economy like the auto market. A lot of auto imports come from Mexico and China. Same thing with fruits and vegetables. A lot of imports come from Mexico. Meat and dairy coming in from Canada as well. I guess my follow-up though is, are there any specific investment opportunities that actually might arise as a result of these policy changes rather than just sectors that could be impacted by the tariffs?
Well, when it comes to fruit and dairy and food, I think that's a little bit tougher. I think it's hard to see opportunity there. And I think you just say, okay, we need to see how this shakes out. This could be tough. To go back to the policy thing, that's really interesting, though, that the agricultural community actually supported the tariffs. You remember at the beginning, last go around.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What predictions are made for the stock market in 2025?
0:28–2:02
2
How will tariffs impact the economy and stock market?
2:02–12:46
3
What is the outlook for NVIDIA in 2025?
12:46–25:41
4
Is crypto going to maintain its momentum into 2025?
25:41–29:19
5
What can we expect from the Federal Reserve in 2025?
29:19–36:26
Speakers
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