A big week for data and tech earnings
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What are the key market moves and currency trends highlighted at the start of the episode?
It is a big week for many of the magnificent seven. After that big push in margins for Tesla last week, all eyes will be on most of the other big tech firms reporting this week. Aside from that, it's a week for jobs with non-farm payrolls in the US on Friday, and with a hungry salt likely in the Japanese Parliament. What does that mean for the Bank of Japan meeting this week? It's Monday, it's the 28th of October, 2024. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. Well, the US dollar was up again on Friday, up naught point two percent on the day, and almost three point nine percent over the last month. The Aussie fell half percent on Friday down to sixty six point one US cents, actually the lowest since mid August, and down four point four percent since its peak at the start of the month.
Bond yields were higher again, up three basis points on Friday for ten year treasuries, up to four and a quarter percent. At the start of the month, they were three point seven four percent. So that is a lift in Yields of fifty-one basis points, or half a percent, if you prefer it that way, uh, this month. Over the same period, Aussie ten years have lifted forty-two basis points to four point four two percent, UK ten year guilts up thirty basis points to four point two four per cent. And stocks had a jittery end to the week, the SP just in the red, the Dow down naught point six percent, but tech taking the lead, the Nasdaq up naught point six percent, it reached eighteen six nine. On Friday, which is a new record.
And oil was rising after a choppy week. Over the week, WTI finished up 3.7%, finishing at 71.80 a barrel. Brent climbed 4.1% last week, finishing just above 76 a barrel. So let's have a look at Friday, the weekend, because a bit's happened and what's ahead of us with Nab's Rodrigo Cachul in Sydney. I guess the good news is And this will have an impact on oil, I should imagine, today.
How might the Japanese election results impact the Bank of Japan’s policy decisions?
Israel's attack on Iran happened, but it was much more constrained than was feared, and interestingly, Iran is also downplaying it, presumably because they're trying to make the case that there's no need for them to retaliate. So let's hope there's less chance of escalation.
Yes, morning Phil. I I think that's one of the main takeaways from from uh from that event over the weekend. Um uh it seems that well the the the big kind of issue there or the big story is that Israel um avoided any of the major targets that um were deemed to be you know highly sensitive, for instance attacking any of the oil sectors as well as anything to do with the nuclear power and and major defence um areas for from Iran. So all of that was was was avoided and therefore uh now as you say also the response from Iran hasn't been kind of super aggressive and it doesn't suggest that they will be uh retaliating to the retaliation. So Um so at least on on face value it seems that uh there's no reason to expect uh um um you know an increase in tensions there.
Uh and I should actually play it into maybe uh uh you know, downward pressure on oil prices at the start of the week given that you know, all this uncertainty and the concerns that maybe there would be um impact on supply, um, now now those concerns pro probably have eased a little bit f uh after the weekend.
Right, the other thing that over the weekend was the uh the Japanese election. We don't know the full result yet, but we do know the exit polls. So it looks like the uh the ruling Liberal Democratic Party are gonna fall short of uh of the majority. So two hundred and thirty three seats are needed for a majority. The expectation is at best they'll get two hundred and nineteen. They may get as low as one hundred and fifty three. The upshot is there's gonna need to be a coalition. Uh so what does that mean for the Bank of Japan? It does seem like a lot of the election debate has been about rising prices. People are dissatisfied with inflation, even though it's very low, it's become very much a political issue there.
So maybe now the Bank of Japan can act, but will they act as fast as this week?
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What are the key market moves and currency trends highlighted at the start of the episode?
0:01–1:49
2
How might the Japanese election results impact the Bank of Japan’s policy decisions?
1:49–3:58
3
What are the implications of the Israel‑Iran tension for oil prices and market sentiment?
3:58–6:35
4
How do China’s plunging industrial profits and upcoming NPC meeting affect fiscal stimulus expectations?
6:35–8:59
5
What is Donald Trump’s proposed tariff strategy and why does it matter for investors?
8:59–11:01
6
Why is this week considered a massive earnings week for the ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech giants?
11:01–12:53
7
Which global economic data releases (GDP, CPI, payrolls) will drive market volatility this week?
12:53–14:40
8
How could Australian CPI and RBA expectations shape the outlook for rate cuts later in the year?
14:40–15:13