Back to work, waiting for jobs numbers
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Why is the US back at work just before the non‑farm payrolls and Fed meeting?
The US is back at work after Thanksgiving and a long weekend for many, back just in time for the week that includes non-farm payrolls at the end of the week, ahead of the Fed this month, and Australian retail sales numbers today for October, before the big sales started, of course, and inflation in Tokyo on Friday. Is that the stimulus for a Bank of Japan rate rise this month? And it is going to be this month because it is December. December the second. It's the morning call from NAM. Good morning. Well the US dollar fell on Friday by naught point three percent. That's a fall of one point seven percent last week. That hasn't helped the Aussie though, which was pretty flat last week, finishing just above sixty five point one US cents, while the Euro rose about one point nine percent.
The biggest move on Friday though was the yen. It was up one point two percent on Friday and up over three percent over the week, even though our guest on the uh weekend edition was arguing a weaker yen was most likely in the uh in the midterm. Treasury yield
Aussie uh ten years down twenty basis points over the week, with yields down to four point three four percent. US shares, well, they've been climbing slowly for most of the week last week, but rising quite a bit on Friday, and not even though it's a short day, a naught point eight percent rise in the Nasdaq, one point one percent over the week. Uh the S P up naught point six percent on Friday. Friday, also one point one percent up on the week, reaching a new record high. And oil falling, both WTI and Brent down more than one percent on Friday, actually a one point three percent falling Brent down to seventy one eighty a barrel. It really doesn't seem to want to get below seventy one or above seventy five, not for any period of time anyway.
Just as Bitcoin doesn't seem to want to break that one hundred thousand mark, uh, but it's hanging around not far from there. And it was that was pretty much where it was all last week. Nabs Tapas Strickland joins me from Sydney. So Tapas, our weekend edition, I mean we talked all about Japan. We recorded that before Tokyo's CPI numbers came out. And they were a bit of a surprise, weren't they? Two point six percent year on year versus two point two percent expected. And the markets reacted to that.
How did Tokyo’s hotter‑than‑expected CPI affect expectations for a BoJ rate hike?
Good morning, Phil. Yes, you did get uh a little bit hotter CPI figures than what the market was expecting there. As you mentioned the headline one, the core measure was also higher than expected. So you look at Core X Fresh Food, and that was two point two percent versus uh two point zero percent expected. So when you look at market pricing for a Bekka-Japan rate hike at the December meeting, there's about sixteen point five basis points priced now. And at the start of the week, last week, it was around four fourteen basis points price. So an incremental lift or the probability of a December hike. And it's hard to interpret those probabilities just given that it's still unclear exactly by what magnitude the Bank of Japan would would hike rates by.
Would it be by 15 basis points? Would it be by 25 basis points? So if you think it's going to be a 15 basis point hike, then the market's fully pricing it. If you think it's going to be a bit uh 25 basis point hike, then uh the market uh isn't fully pricing it. But um subsequent to those CPR Figures. Um the Bank of Japan governor gave an interview uh with the Nikolai Times. I think that interview was actually on Thursday, but as far as I know, it was only published at least in the English press on Saturday. And uh he said uh effectively the next rate hike is nearing in the sense that economic data are on track. Uh so I think that's a little bit more definitive. And the Bank of Japan has come under a lot of criticism um after its um conflicting communications over the
the past year. So uh that interview is being seen by some in the marketplace as providing a little bit more guidance ahead of the December meeting there. So it's quite possible the Bank of Japan hikes rates in in in in December following the high that expected CPI figures and also that uh Nikai Times interview as well.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why is the US back at work just before the non‑farm payrolls and Fed meeting?
0:02–2:06
2
How did Tokyo’s hotter‑than‑expected CPI affect expectations for a BoJ rate hike?
2:06–3:53
3
What do the European CPI and French budget deadline mean for euro‑zone markets?
3:53–5:55
4
Why are Australian business credit numbers seen as a sign that RBA rates aren’t restrictive?
5:55–7:58
5
How are Australian dwelling‑price trends reshaping regional housing markets?
7:58–10:15
6
What could US payroll data mean for a possible December Fed rate cut?
10:15–12:58
7
How might Trump‑era policies and crypto regulation impact the US dollar?
12:58–15:21
8
What are the key upcoming data releases (US ISM, JOLTS, Q3 GDP) to watch this week?
15:21–16:40