Tapas Strickland
speaker
3,313 appearances
30 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2024
last heard Aug 2025
Tapas Strickland’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Yes, the Bank of England uh was quite an an interesting decision there.
And indeed what made it so interesting as you're noting, there are actually two rounds of decisions.
So uh the first was a four four one decision, which really ended uh in no decision whatsoever.
And then as you're saying, the person who was advocating for a fifty basis point cut, um uh advocated then for a twenty five basis point cut in order to support a twenty five basis point cut.
And the final decision was five five to four.
Uh Governor Bailey uh in his uh post press conference said the message to markets is the situation is finely balanced and I think uh that is probably the best characterization there and pretty evident in the voting uh tally there.
And the key reason why is when you look at the Bank of England's forecasts, uh the baseline forecasts for consumer price inflation have been revised up.
So for twenty twenty six, uh they're expecting inflation of two point seven percent year on year from their prior forecast of two point
point four percent while the unemployment and GDP GP profiles were little changed.
Uh so there are some on the committee, including the chief economist, who uh were of the view that they thought um a more gradual and careful approach to withdrawal of further policy was more warranted, and that would uh ensure against risks of inflation persisting for longer than what the Bank of England would would would desire.
Whereas those people who were advocating for the cut
And we're in the m who are in the majority, we're really looking at the labour market, we're really looking at wages outcomes and saying um the labour market is showing signs of softness there.
So it's unlikely those inflationary pressures were going to be as persistent there.
But I think the key message for for markets is uh the Bank of England is more finely tuned, uh more finely balanced, uh and you've seen a pairing back of market uh rate cut expectations there.
I think uh November rate cut expectations now are only about fifty percent.
price there.
And
And as you're saying, um uh the uh the UK currency th sterling was up overnight and uh yields were also up as well.
Yes, Phil, our FX strategists have uh revised our forecast slightly uh for the Australian dollar, merely uh to take into account that the US dollar uh weakness has been a little bit slower to to play out.
Um the the view is still that the US dollar is in for a secular decline there, but uh it's just taking a little bit uh longer and as a consequence uh taking a slightly more cautious view of the extent to which uh major currencies are gonna appreciate against the US dollar.
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