Tariffs kick in & BoE’s Close Call
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What are the new average US import tariffs and why do they matter?
15%. That is the average tariff on goods imported into the US now, according to Bloomberg estimates, as of yesterday. Somewhat more than the 2.3% this time last year. So what will happen? Well, it's not held back the growth in China's exports so far, but it has hit the global auto sector. And the Bank of England, well, it couldn't have been closer for them. They cut, but only just inflation is still a concern. Concern and uncertainty, of course. It's Friday, it's the eighth of August, twenty twenty five. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, you know, I was about to say a slight rise in the US dollar this morning, but it's actually fallen away sharply in the last half hour or so, and it's down on yesterday.
We've got a naught point six per cent rise in the pound, the Aussie is up naught point three per cent, the euro is flat, US equities are lower as well, half per cent off the Dow. No change for the S P, but I see the NASDAQ up a thirty. Of one percent. The FTSE 100, though, is down 0.7%, but a 1.3% rise in the Eurostocks 50 and 1.1% for the DAX. And 10-year treasury yields are up two basis points, up two for uh 10-year guilts in the UK as well, uh, down two in Germany, France, and Italy. Much of Europe, in fact, down two or three basis points, down five basis points for Switzerland. And Aussie ten years yesterday, down just one basis point of four point two four. percent on futures now, a few basis points higher than that, and oil is lower, 0.9% off WTI and Brent, Brent, which is now down to 6630 a barrel.
So uh Nabs Tapper Strickland is here to talk us through all of that. First of all That rise in the pound, the fall in the FTSE, uh a bit of a fall, bit of a bond sell off as well, uh that's gonna be the Bank of England, isn't it? Which was a very close call, five votes to four. And in fact one of those five voting to cut had actually wanted a fifty basis point cut, but had to be talked around to to try and stop a stalemate. So you couldn't actually have it any closer than that, could you? Good morning, Phil.
Yes, the Bank of England uh was quite an an interesting decision there. And indeed what made it so interesting as you're noting, there are actually two rounds of decisions. So uh the first was a four four one decision, which really ended uh in no decision whatsoever.
How are the latest market moves (FX, equities, yields) reacting to the tariff news?
And then as you're saying, the person who was advocating for a fifty basis point cut, um uh advocated then for a twenty five basis point cut in order to support a twenty five basis point cut. And the final decision was five five to four. Uh Governor Bailey uh in his uh post press conference said the message to markets is the situation is finely balanced and I think uh that is probably the best characterization there and pretty evident in the voting uh tally there. And the key reason why is when you look at the Bank of England's forecasts, uh the baseline forecasts for consumer price inflation have been revised up. So for twenty twenty six, uh they're expecting inflation of two point seven percent year on year from their prior forecast of two point
point four percent while the unemployment and GDP GP profiles were little changed. Uh so there are some on the committee, including the chief economist, who uh were of the view that they thought um a more gradual and careful approach to withdrawal of further policy was more warranted, and that would uh ensure against risks of inflation persisting for longer than what the Bank of England would would would desire. Whereas those people who were advocating for the cut And we're in the m who are in the majority, we're really looking at the labour market, we're really looking at wages outcomes and saying um the labour market is showing signs of softness there. So it's unlikely those inflationary pressures were going to be as persistent there.
But I think the key message for for markets is uh the Bank of England is more finely tuned, uh more finely balanced, uh and you've seen a pairing back of market uh rate cut expectations there. I think uh November rate cut expectations now are only about fifty percent.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What are the new average US import tariffs and why do they matter?
0:01–2:09
2
How are the latest market moves (FX, equities, yields) reacting to the tariff news?
2:09–6:09
3
Why was the Bank of England’s rate‑cut decision such a close vote?
6:09–8:14
4
What did the BoE’s revised inflation forecast mean for future policy?
8:14–10:26
5
How has NAB adjusted its Australian‑dollar forecast amid slower US‑dollar weakness?
10:26–13:09
6
What impact are the tariffs having on global auto makers and Chinese export trends?
13:09–15:16
7
Why is gold now Australia’s third‑largest export and what does that mean for the economy?
15:16–16:36
8
What upcoming data (US jobs, Canada employment, China CPI) could shift market expectations next week?
16:36–16:44