Bunker down and pizza
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How could the US bunker‑bomber strikes on Iranian uranium facilities impact oil prices this week?
US bunker buster bombs have struck Iranian military targets. You know that, of course. The question is, what will it do to oil prices and other asset classes today and for the rest of this week? And if oil spikes, how long for? Otherwise, a bit of data from Friday, the UK and Canadian retail sales, the worrying rise in Japanese inflation, and another chance to compare and contrast PMIs for Europe and those in the US today. It's Monday, the twenty third. of June twenty twenty five. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, Friday's close is probably a bit irrelevant now, but the US dollar was down naught point two percent on the DXY, the Aussie was down half a percent to sixty four and a half US cents.
Uh the Euro was up a quarter percent, and US stocks were largely down as much as half a percent on the Nasdaq on Friday, a quarter percent off the S P. But in Europe one point three percent added to the DAX, and ten year treasuries were down just two basis points to four point three eight percent. And oil, well, get this, uh Brent was down two point three percent to just over seventy seven a barrel, down. Uh, but we are still up ten percent since the thirteenth of June, and we know it's gonna go up today. Nabs Tapas Strickland uh joins me from Sydney. So um that uh two weeks to decide from Donald Trump, uh which we talked about on Friday's podcast. Well, we didn't have to wait two weeks, did we? 'Cause we know what happened since.
The question is, what will the markets do today?
Good morning, Phil. Uh yes, a a big surprise on the weekend, but maybe not a surprise for for some people out there. Uh some people who are quite astute were monitoring uh pizza traffic around the Pentagon on uh on Thursday night. And there are a lot of reports on Exit about how there was heightened ac activity around pizza shops. And generally when you do have US military intervention, um that correlates with that, but obviously it's not not necessary. the time but uh I think uh although President Trump said uh there was that two week window, I think a lot of people did think that um something was going to happen uh r relatively soon uh in terms of that. But the headlines that we do know is obviously those um those nuclear enrichment sites were were were were bombed and I guess the fallout really is is uh what does Iran do in reaction to that?
Yeah. Yeah and what does America do?
What possible military responses could Iran take after the US and Israeli strikes?
And what does America
do next as well? Because we've got J D Vance saying most of that uranium is actually still intact. So do they need to go again is the question.
Mm, yes. And I guess for for Iran itself, uh the the the two key observations really is uh the first one is Iran doesn't really have air control in its own own country. So on Saturday, not only did the US strikes occur with those bunker buster bombs, but 20 Israeli Air Force jets also flew into Iran and um engaged dozens of military targets there. So uh Iran's options are relatively limited. Limited uh in a in a conventional response, just given it doesn't have air control in its own country. And so therefore you're talking about well, what type of response could could it do? And uh any response in terms of blocking off the Australia for Moors or something like that, yes, you could do that temporarily, but it would be an existential crisis for the country itself.
Uh and so actually, when you look at markets, uh you you have to say they're relatively um not benign. But uh they're relatively measured in their response so far. So looking at how Asia is opening up so far, you've seen the Euro uh down by zero point five percent, you've seen the Aussie down by zero point two percent. So modest US dollar uh reaction And then actually when you look at the Egyptian stock market and the Saudi stock market was actually open on Sunday, the Egyptian stock market rose two and a half percent. Yeah. So yeah.
So some sense that US intervention into the This uh Israel Iran tensions could see a quicker resolution than uh than you would have had if uh uh the US hadn't in intervened.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
How could the US bunker‑bomber strikes on Iranian uranium facilities impact oil prices this week?
0:01–2:09
2
What possible military responses could Iran take after the US and Israeli strikes?
2:09–4:57
3
How might Iran’s limited retaliation against US bases shape regional security?
4:57–7:25
4
What are the Fed officials saying about the timing of U.S. interest‑rate cuts?
7:25–9:17
5
Why is Japan’s core CPI climbing and what does it mean for BoJ policy?
9:17–10:59
6
Why did UK retail sales fall in May despite warm weather?
10:59–13:18
7
What do Canada’s soft retail sales and upcoming inflation figures suggest for the Bank of Canada?
13:18–15:57
8
How will the upcoming US CPI report influence market expectations for rate changes?
15:57–17:38