Did I say April? I meant March.
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What recent tariff announcements by President Trump are driving today’s market reaction?
Well, you might be surprised to learn that President Trump is behind quite a bit of the Marquee reaction today. You know, if it wasn't for him, we might be talking about signs that the US inflation isn't slowing. But instead, it's tariffs being brought forward. More on China from next week, and Canada and Mexico back again to the middle of next week. And Ukraine is front and center with Zelensky uh signing supposedly a very big minerals deal today. And the UK Prime Minister Has met the president as well. It's Friday, it's the twenty eighth of February, twenty twenty five. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. Well, quite a lift in the US dollar. It's up three quarters of one percent. The euro it is down by the same amount.
The Canadian dollar naught point seven percent lower, the pound down half a percent. Maybe it'll recover a bit as Donald Trump's talked about a trade deal with the UK in a press conference just now. Uh the Aussie is down one point one percent, ten year treasury yields up two basis points, but German ten year bund yields down two basis points. Aussie ten years yesterday were up. 4.34% now and futures more like 4.38%. US stocks lower at the close. The Dow down 0.4%. The SP has lost 1.6%. And 2.8% Dow for the Nasdaq. The Russell 2000 also down 1.6%. Nvidia shares down 8.5% today, even though they beat Q4 earnings estimates. Oil is up quite a bit. 2.3% for DI, 1.9%. For Brent, close to seventy four barrel now.
Gold down quite a bit as well. It's uh come down one point three percent uh since yesterday, but still hovering close to its all time high. And Gavin Friend joins me from NAB in London. So Gavin, I clearly need to get the wax cleared for my ears, because I did watch uh President Trump giving his press conference yesterday and he did say April the second for Canada
How are the new US‑Canada‑Mexico tariff dates expected to affect currency and equity markets?
and Mexico because he said he didn't want it to be on April Fool's Day. But now here we are, less than a day later. He's saying March the fourth, which is next Wednesday, and also on the same day an extra 10% on China. And then April the second for reciprocal tariffs, which presumably is when we're going to see that 25% on on Europe. But he's brought the whole thing forward. So how much of the market reaction we're seeing today Is a result of all of that.
A lot, most of it. I mean, um there was a big drive up in the dollar. Um and it's it it is, to your point, it is the confusion. We had the overnight stuff, you know, is it April, is it May? We thought we got ahead of it. There were some comments to CNBC by Kevin Hassett, who's Trump's um director of the National Economic Council. And he said that uh there is going to be a report uh on tariffs on the second of April and Trump will decide after that. So we thought, okay, that's that and literally moments later Trump was on um that the US President was on his truth social and saying that uh Canada Mexico tariffs will come in March the fourth. There is Sounds like a one man government to me. Well maybe two.
if we include uh Elon Musk. Yeah. Yeah. Look if you if you read what he posted, there's there's there's a potential get out because he talked about to the extent that the that the issues we have on the borders in terms of immigrants and fentanyl remain, the tariffs come in. Now, you know, i is there any chance that that will change meaningfully um by next week? Well maybe it doesn't have to Do maybe maybe there's something, you know, like the announcement originally about the ten thousand troops, maybe there's something that eat either side can come up with that convinces the president that he he can give it a bit more time. And especially if there is this report that's due on tariffs, which comes out on the second of April.
I mean everything we know uh about Trump is is that you know when he when he he he is pre th these are negotiators. things, at some point, yes, the rubber hits the road. Is is it then? Well, again, look at the market look at the market reaction. I mean stocks You know, they're not collapsing, but they're not they're not in a th th they seem to be in a a very um uh a fragile position at the moment.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What recent tariff announcements by President Trump are driving today’s market reaction?
0:02–1:53
2
How are the new US‑Canada‑Mexico tariff dates expected to affect currency and equity markets?
1:53–4:15
3
What is the likely impact of the extra 10 % tariff on China and why is it considered certain?
4:15–6:55
4
How are European leaders – Keir Starmer, Zelenskyy and the EU – responding to the US tariff moves?
6:55–9:45
5
What do the latest US PCE, GDP and personal‑income numbers tell us about inflation and growth trends?
9:45–11:55
6
Why is the Australian dollar falling and what do the recent capex and durable‑goods figures indicate for Australia’s economy?
11:55–13:40
7
What are the upcoming economic releases (NZ consumer confidence, Japan CPI, Eurozone data) that could shift market sentiment?
13:40–15:33
8
What will the weekend edition with Dr John Kunkel explore about the Trump tariff saga and its implications for Australia?
15:33–18:14