Job openings up, but growth forecasts down (globally and at home)
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What’s the overall market mood on the US equity rally and bond yields this morning?
Well, the good news for the US, lots of jobs. The bad news, slower growth, both in NABS forecast for Australia and the OECD's latest forecast for everyone. But back to the good news: Europe's inflation is down. But in China, the Keijing PMI shows that they have felt the hurt of manufacturing in May, even though that's not what the official numbers said. So good and bad everywhere. It's Wednesdays, the 4th of June 2025. The morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, US equities have been pushing higher today. The close, the Nasdaq up naught point eight percent, the Dow up half a percent, the same for the S P, IT and energy doing particularly well, and yet bond markets less enthusiastic, with yields pushing higher.
Not by much, but up two basis points for ten year treasuries up to four point four six percent. Thirty years stopped just shy of five percent this session, so they are heading back up there. We're not seeing the same. Same picture in Europe where yields are down today, in w if they've moved at all, actually. So down three basis points for ten year guilt yields in the UK. Aussie ten years down to four point four two five percent yesterday, but they are up just a couple of basis points on futures this morning. And the US dollar is up today, up half a percent over ninety nine point two on the DXY. The euro is down naught point six percent, naught point two per cent off the pound, naught point eight per cent off the yen.
The Aussie down half a percent, around sixty-four point six US cents this morning. And oil is higher again as well. Another one point four percent on WTI and one and a half percent on Brennan, which is uh over sixty five sixty US dollars a barrel now. So enthusiasm in the equity markets, more caution for bond traders. Feel like we've heard this before. Nab Sky Masters is here, joining us from Sun uh from Sydney. So actually I might I mean the equity story. Encouraged by JOLTS data, isn't it, in the United States. Seven point three nine million jobs open in the United States against a forecast of seven point one million. Uh that seven point one million was uh I expected fall from seven point two million uh in March.
So actually uh the available jobs went up in April, which was a surprise.
Yeah, good morning, Phil.
How did the US JOLTS job‑openings report change investor sentiment?
Um, you know, the the big news overnight was that Jolt's jobs um that Joltz report out of the US which did come in or the headline print did come in stronger than expected. And we can sort of run through the detail in that in a minute. But I think when you're looking at equity markets, they are they are currently up and um led by the US US stocks. But they did open with a bit of a cautious tone. Um and part of that cautiousness I think was, you know, maybe at the margin, um Late in the afternoon session yesterday, the OECD um released its revised growth forecasts. Um and it revised world growth forecast was r revised down from three point one to two to two point nine, um, noting sort of the combative trade policies um um that's sort of impacting the growth the growth outlook and they uh they also predict that the Fed will be on whole.
Um for for this year. Um so that sort of had an impact on on markets at the open. Um and but then obviously as you said, you know, you you you we had the the Jolts report which came out um and boosted sentiment and and and equities started to started to head head higher. I think on on the bond market you you did say in your opening remarks that um you know European bonds are l are lower in yield while treasuries are higher in yield. And what that's reflecting is um Early in the European session you had quite a strong forty year guilt note auction, um, which drew solid demand. The bit to cover ratio um came in at three point five one um versus two point eight at the previous auction. So that sort of did provide some support to um
to in to to sentiment in in the bond market. But that says a lot, doesn't it? Because
we've been seeing very bad results. Well not very bad results, but disappointing results in the United States.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
What’s the overall market mood on the US equity rally and bond yields this morning?
0:01–2:05
2
How did the US JOLTS job‑openings report change investor sentiment?
2:05–5:02
3
Why did the OECD downgrade global growth forecasts and what impact did it have?
5:02–7:13
4
What’s driving Europe’s unexpected inflation drop and its effect on ECB policy?
7:13–9:57
5
How does China’s Caixin PMI divergence signal manufacturing weakness?
9:57–13:01
6
What are the latest Australian Q2 GDP expectations after NAB’s forecast cut?
13:01–15:41
7
Will the RBA accelerate rate‑cut expectations based on the new data?
15:41–16:50