Keeping the dream alive
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What did the Trump‑Zelensky press conference do to global markets?
Well it was a very scrappy affair, wasn't it? That press conference between President Trump, J.D. Vance, and Zelensky. So how did the markets react? Meanwhile, UK's Keystama is trying to calm the waters. He met with European leaders and Canada and Zelensky and spoke to Trump twice as well on Sunday. What sort of market reaction could we see as he tries to calm things down? And tariffs this week, could there be a plan that might actually delay or stop those New ones on Canada and Mexico, plus lots of days to go through, including the US's massive trade deficit. It's just got a whole lot worse. It's Monday, it's the second of March 2025. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. Well, there was quite a movement on Friday, particularly after the press conference.
So the we saw the US dollar rise a third of one percent. The Aussie lost half a percent, uh so did the yen. The euro was down a quarter percent on Friday, the pound down naught point two percent, the Aussie now down to sixty-two point one US cents, and bond yields fell on Friday, down five basis points for ten year treasuries, now four point two one percent. Canada fell by seven basis points, so much smaller move. In Europe though. Aussie ten years on Friday. We're at four point two nine percent now in futures uh four basis points up on that. And Friday uh was a good day for US stocks. Two point six percent up for the SP and the Nasdaq one point four per cent for the Dow, obviously just clawing back from losses that we saw last week.
So over the week the S P still down two point seven percent, uh even with that boost on Friday, and the Nasdaq lost three and a half. percent over the week as well. And oil is lower. WTI down below seventy a barrel. Brent fell one percent on Friday as well, down to uh more than three percent over the week. So quite an end to the week and uh it was not just that yelling match, th there were numbers to consider too. Uh here's Nabs Tapas Strickland.
How did the Friday market moves affect the US dollar, Aussie and bond yields?
Uh first of all though, let's look at that yelling match uh Tapas. What what impact did that have on uh on the market? And and is it the sort of movement that you're th you you think'll stick?
Good morning, Phil. It was an extraordinary uh press conference there and we won't delve into the details there, but worth the listen to for um anyone who um wants to listen. Ew everyone on the
planner has heard it tappers. Don't don't worry about that. But what what did it do to the market? Well, I guess
the um main implication really is um so so far there's no minerals deal. Um the joint press was cancelled, and leaders throughout Europe have announced their solidarity with Ukraine and have gone a and forged ahead with uh you'd have to say some kind of alternative peace plan. Um but in terms of um market moves, it was really tied up between the uh Trump Zelensky press conference and also some really weird. Weak US economic data and disentangling the two can be quite difficult. Yeah. But on net, after those two events, you've seen Fed funds pricing for rate cuts move up. So now there's 68.5 basis points worth of cuts priced by the end of 2025 from 61 basis points on Thursday and 46.2 basis points last week.
So almost three rate cuts being priced by the end of the year. For yields, uh the US tenure yield was Down five basis points to four point two one percent. And you would have to say the concerns around uh p the potential growth of the US economy and the geopolitical tensions are probably the predominant factor behind the move in US yields. And then US equities is probably the one that is a bit more puzzling. So uh even though uh yields were lower, even though Fed Funds pricing of cuts has gone up, uh the SP have a hundred rose some one point six percent with very strong gains in financials and the IT. subsector. Just worth noting about half of the gains in the SP five hundred occurred in the final half hour of trade.
And so there's a lot of commentary around saying, well maybe a lot of that move was actually related to index rebalancing and other technical buyings.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What did the Trump‑Zelensky press conference do to global markets?
0:01–1:50
2
How did the Friday market moves affect the US dollar, Aussie and bond yields?
1:50–4:04
3
What are the implications of the new Canada‑Mexico tariffs and possible delay strategies?
4:04–6:23
4
Why is the US economy showing signs of slowing and how is it influencing Fed rate‑cut expectations?
6:23–8:33
5
Could a European‑backed peace plan finally bring a deal for Ukraine this week?
8:33–10:35
6
What does the surge in the US goods trade deficit reveal about pre‑tariff import behavior?
10:35–12:53
7
Which Australian economic releases are coming up and why are they critical for market outlook?
12:53–15:16
8
What are the two big stories—peace talks and tariffs—that will shape the market this week?
15:16–16:33