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Why are global equity markets falling and what’s driving the cautious mood?
Well let me tell you, there's nothing exciting to report today. Equities are down, in particular Netflix, who excited nobody with their earnings yesterday. So Tesla is the next big one. Perhaps a bit of trepidation around that. UK CPI was a bit softer than expected though. That helped with UK equities, but everywhere else the mood is definitely a bit more cautious. And oil takes another hit as well. It's Thursday, it's the 23rd of October 2025. It's the morning call. Paul from Nav, good morning. Well equities are lower pretty much globally today. The Nasdaq taking a one point six percent hit, the Dow and the S P and the Eurostocks fifty, uh all down about naught point eight percent. The FTSE one hundred is the exception, that is up naught point nine percent.
Uh hot on the uh the the news of the CPI, which will come to you today. The US dollar marginally lower. It's been on a bit of a journey this session, but it's pretty much where it was this time yesterday. Ten year treasuries have fallen another two bases. Points down to 3.95% now. 10-year guilt in the UK fell six basis points to 4.42%, and Aussie 10-year yields at 4.12% this morning. And gold has fallen again, another 1.7% on spot gold. Still over 4,000 a barrel, though, it should be pointed out. And he is Nab's Gavin friend in London. So not a lot going on, really, Gavin. Maybe that's Why markets are a bit cautious or is doubtful the the word. I'm not sure. What word are you going to put on it for the uh for the sort of like uh the lack of action in the markets today?
Yeah, morning Phil. I think I think markets uh I'm marking time, okay. Two words.
How are US inflation expectations and the upcoming CPI report influencing trader sentiment?
Because there's not a there's not a lot of reliable news. We we we continue to be in the US data drought. Obviously we've got uh US CPI coming at the end of the week. But you know, I I I'm getting a feeling reading a lot of stuff about this, what people are thinking about this. People aren't we we you know, everybody thinks the Fed's gonna cut next week and probably again in December it's priced. And so the CPI report i is is almost being looked through. It doesn't really matter what it's you know markets saying we don't really care. The Fed's still gonna cut, right? Um it's difficult to see anything happening in that CPR report that will be taken seriously enough.
Yes, and none of that's new, is it? And I and I guess that's why markets are just holding out.
You know, what have we got? We've got um equity markets that are soft across the board, including in the a in the US. They've been volatile in the US, but they've been trading down most of the day and uh just coming off those lows a little bit towards the end of the day. Uh, you know, we know that that Asia saw softness in the in equities, as did Europe. We know that bond yields uh are not moving much, but they're retaining that soft tone in terms of the yield. So US two year yields uh Um, you know, uh uh going sideways, but actually th they're at the lowest levels since twenty twenty one. Um and then tenure yields are it's not really much changed, you know, uh but but they're again sitting below four percent.
Lots of people scratching their heads as to you know, why this is. Um actually th if you look in the across the yield spectrum, it is uh UK yields. Uh UK bonds have outperformed today, um, you know, because we had some lower inflation numbers out of the UK. We'll discuss that in a second. Um and on currencies pretty quiet again. Um, you know, moves up and then back down again in the in the US dollar. Sterling, you know, took a took it on the chin today a bit, um, but recovered some of those losses. Um after the CPI. So, you know, all pretty quiet. I think really, you know, we we've we've we've we've had this story where we're in an environment which is growth friendly, it's it's risk and asset friendly, um, you know, thinking about the US economy not doing too bad.
The earnings season so far has been pretty good. Um we've got a supportive backdrop in terms of fiscal and monetary policy in the US and deregulation that kind of stuff.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
Why are global equity markets falling and what’s driving the cautious mood?
0:01–1:35
2
How are US inflation expectations and the upcoming CPI report influencing trader sentiment?
1:35–4:12
3
What did the UK CPI surprise reveal and how might it affect the Bank of England’s policy path?
4:12–7:24
4
Why did Netflix miss earnings expectations and what could that mean for tech stocks like Tesla?
7:24–10:29
5
How is Japan’s new prime minister planning to balance fiscal stimulus with inflation control?
10:29–13:02
6
What are the potential market impacts of a US government shutdown and the looming budget negotiations?
13:02–13:52