Markets nervous as Russia drops the N word (again)
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How is Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine and Ukraine’s missile strike affecting market risk sentiment?
Well things are escalating a bit in Ukraine as they fire into Russian territory overnight, with Russia saying that is a definite sign of escalation and they are back to using the nuclear word. So what's that done to the markets overnight? Plus inflation holding up in Canada. Will it be a similar story for the UK today? So apart from World War Three, it's really quiet today, but NVIDIA is just around the corner. It's Wednesday, it's the twentieth of November 2024. The morning call from Nab. Good morning. So a slight fall in the US dollar. It was up a little earlier in the session, but not for long. So the Aussie dollar has climbed 0.4% up to sixty-five point three US cents, a similar rise in the Canadian dollar.
But the Euro down a little, even against that falling US dollar. Why? Well we'll talk about that in a second. Bond yields are generally down. Ten year treasuries, three basis points lower, down three basis points for German bundles as well, down two for UK ten year guilt yields. Aussie ten years down four basis points yesterday to four point five six percent, and that is pretty much where they are this morning. And equities are mixed. We saw a naught point three percent fall in the Dow at the close. The S P finished up naught point four percent, more than one percent higher for the Nasdaq. The Russell two thousand finished up naught point eight percent. In Europe, a not point eight percent fall in the Eurostocks fifty, almost as much of a fall in the DAX.
footy one hundred down naught point one per cent. An oil higher again today up another half percent for WTI up naught point one percent. That's all for Brent around seventy three forty a barrel.
What immediate impact did the Ukraine escalation have on bond yields and major equity indices?
Scott of go spot of gold up naught point seven percent. Bitcoin up over two and a half percent today, another new high. That's forty percent in the last month, which, you know, seems perfectly sensible, doesn't it? Uh so Nabs Ray Atrill is with me today. By the way, Nvidia down three point six percent in the last five days. Uh that's after a rising two point six percent today ahead of their earnings later in the week, actually just about this time tomorrow. So shares do seem to be trading on fundamentals a little bit, on company news. But there is a bit of geopolitical risk around, isn't there? Uh which has uh perhaps had a bit of an impact, certainly on currencies in Europe, with uh Ukraine firing long range US missiles, because they're allowed to do that now
Now into Russia. We've had Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov saying that this was a signal that the West wanted an escalation in the war, and the so-called Russian nuclear doctrine has been revised somewhat. So it basically lowers the conditions that they have for using nuclear weapons in their own minds. So now they can attack uh anybody who has attacked Russian territory. If you get an attack by a non nuclear territory like Ukraine, uh if it's supported by a nuclear power, like America, uh then they can use nuclear weapons, they reckon. It's a bit of a game of brinkmanship going on here, isn't it?
Yeah, morning Phil. That uh very eloquently uh summarized there. But um uh from a market point of view that's where we have to say that uh you know we certainly saw uh some some pretty reasonable evidence of sort of the classic safe haven flows in response to some of the uh of both sets of headlines, both in relation to the uh to the missile strikes and that uh that that uh nuclear arms doctrine comments from the Foreign Ministry. Although you know how I have to say they proved pretty temporary in terms of uh you know treasury yields, okay, they're still uh down a little bit basically, but uh not showing great movements. The US dollar was pretty much bid across the board, but it's has settled back to where it was prior to the headlines, effectively.
And um so you mentioned oil being up, but it's uh it's a pretty small intraday move, I have to say. And I think one of the reasons for that, we did have Russia's foreign ministry coming out subsequently. to that, um those comments on the nuclear arms doctrine saying that uh nuclear uh saying that we are strongly in favour of doing everything not to allow nuclear war to happen.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
How is Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine and Ukraine’s missile strike affecting market risk sentiment?
0:01–1:29
2
What immediate impact did the Ukraine escalation have on bond yields and major equity indices?
1:29–3:46
3
How are Nvidia’s upcoming earnings and Canada’s CPI data influencing investor positioning?
3:46–5:18
4
What did the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes reveal about the timing of the next rate cut?
5:18–7:50
5
How could forthcoming Fed commentary and recent tariff discussions shape US inflation expectations?
7:50–10:18
6
What are the expectations for China’s one‑year and five‑year loan rates and their effect on monetary policy?
10:18–12:30
7
How are strong German wage gains influencing ECB rate‑cut forecasts for the eurozone?
12:30–14:36
8
What are the UK CPI projections and the likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut before Christmas?
14:36–16:22