Nine More Sleeps
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What is the market outlook ahead of Liberation Day and the upcoming US tariff program?
Just nine more sleeps until Liberation Day in the United States, and with that looming and data light this week, we might find that one man is driving markets all by himself, possibly this week. But US shares did finish in the green on Friday. The US dollar managed to climb a little, so it's not all in one direction. And Canada heading to the polls with Mark Carney hoping he'll take the country through the Trump era, just as he took the Bank of England through the Brexit era. No crisis is too big for him, it seems. It's Monday, it's the twenty-fourth of March, twenty twenty five. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, the US dollar up a quarter percent on Friday, on the DXY up over a hundred and four, but it was actually up the same amount over the week.
So it was uh not adding to any uh earlier growth. The Aussie dollar though down half a percent on Friday, uh down to sixty two point seven US cents. Could it be heading down to sixty? Well, of course that depends on how much the US dollar covers from here, obviously. The euro was down nort. Three percent on Friday, the pound lost nort. four percent. US Equities were in the green at the end of the week, but only just for the SP and the Dow. But the Nasdaq was up half a percent on Friday, but flat over the week, and still down almost eight percent for the year to date. European shares were down on Friday, 0.5% off the Eurostocks fifty, and the DAX 0.6% off the FTSE one hundred. Small movements in bond yields on Friday, except in the UK, where ten year guilt yields were up.
Seven basis points compared to a small fall in yields across much of the rest of Europe. And oil up 0.3%, uh, which is uh for WTI, 0.2% for Brent, which finished the week at 7216 a barrel. Gold has started to come down as well, losing three quarters of one percent on Friday, and that's after a bit of a recovery later in the session. It was down one percent earlier. And Bitcoin also having a bit of a recovery. Up a third of 1% on Friday, although down 15% over the last month. But there again, up 35% over the last six months.
How did US equities, commodities and currencies perform in the last week?
Not that it's volatile or anything. Not at all volatile, of course, is Nabs Rodrigo Catrill. He is here from Sydney today. So Friday, not a bad day for US stocks. In fact, it's the second half of the week, really. So it's in the green. Even Tesla managed a 5% boost on Friday. But you know, as I said, you know, if we look over the year to date, it's still not looking great, is it? And in fact, there's a graph in the Wall Street Journal showing net flows into the US for ETFs based in the US that predominantly invest in European stocks. And last year there was a net outflow out of those ETFs. January was looking pretty flat. February saw a two and a quarter billion inflow into those ETFs. ETFs from America.
So American investors are wondering about their exceptionalism as well, it seems.
Yeah, uh and that's actually a a big theme as well in terms of um what had been occurring for for the US dollar in terms of dollar weakness. But um funny enough, um that that's been a reversal in terms of not only um what we've seen in terms of the US dollar that it's been increasing for three days in a row. Um but we also just to to throw another another stats, JP Morgan threw uh some interesting stuff that they've seen an increase in in buying of US equities in the past couple of s couple of days. So um um that that question mark about the US exceptionalism Um I think it's is it's an open question at the moment. Um you know, the they're still the Magnesis in seven, excluding Tesla, still have a lot of pricing power and technology advantage.
So uh writing them off too quickly might might be a little bit um precarious, I would say. So it remains to be seen.
Yeah, well it does. But do you think some of this comes from Jerome Powell's comments on Thursday that uh you know, that the the impact of TAFs is going to be just transitory? I mean we and then we had uh John Williams and the Fed saying pretty much the same thing on on Friday as well. Do you think that's had an influence?
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the market outlook ahead of Liberation Day and the upcoming US tariff program?
0:01–1:59
2
How did US equities, commodities and currencies perform in the last week?
1:59–3:55
3
How are central banks responding to inflation and growth concerns amid US‑dollar movements?
3:55–7:03
4
What is the Fed’s current stance on inflation being transitory and policy direction?
7:03–8:47
5
What strategy is China pursuing on trade and stability according to Premier Li Qiang?
8:47–12:00
6
How is President Trump framing the upcoming tariff measures as fair and reciprocal?
12:00–13:56
7
Why is the UK experiencing rising gilt yields and pressure to increase defence spending?
13:56–16:37
8
Will European PMI data indicate a shift in economic momentum versus the US?
16:37–18:07