No news, good news
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Why are U.S. equities rallying despite limited market news?
Equity's having a good day in the United States, perhaps because there's a very little to distract them today. There's no tariff news. Economic news from the United States was a little lower than expected, but it's pretty much second-tier stuff. The OECD has downgraded its growth forecast around the world because of the tariffs. Who'd have thought that? But maybe, just maybe, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will come to some arrangement when they talk peace today, or maybe not. It's Tuesday, it's the eighteenth of march twenty twenty five. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. Well, the US dollar is down naught point three percent today, down to about a hundred and three point four on the DXY, the Aussie is up one per cent, heading up towards sixty three point nine US cents, the Canadian dollar is up naught point six per cent, the pound up half a percent, naught point four per cent for the euro, the yen is down naught point four per cent this morning on
Equities, well, up in the United States, at the close, 0.3% higher for the Nasdaq, 0.7% for the SP, and 0.9% for the Dow. That's at the close. They lost quite a bit of ground actually in the last hour of trade. Rises in Europe too, the Eurostocks 50 closed up 0.8%, 0.7% for the DAX, 0.6% for the FTSE 100. Ten-year treasury yields at one basis point lower at 4.3%, yields down further. In Europe, down six basis points for 10-year bond yields, for example, down eight in Italy and France, and pretty similar to that across most of continental Europe, but just two basis points lower for UK 10-year guilt yields. Aussie 10 years yesterday, down just one basis point to 4.42%. Now a few basis points higher than that on futures.
And oil is higher today, 0.6% up for Brent, up over 71 a barrel. And gold is uh rising as well, still close to all time highs, up 0.2% today. And it's Nabs Taylor Nugent, who is also up today at Brighton Early for the morning call.
What does the weaker‑than‑expected U.S. retail sales figure really mean for the economy?
He's joining me. So uh yes, I mean there's um uh big moves in in equities, I guess, because there isn't a great deal of news. Uh no tariff news, which is good to know, isn't it, just for a change. Uh but we Weak US retail sales overnight. Uh you would have thought maybe that would have uh dampened the enthusiasm, but clearly not. Nort point seven percent was the expected growth for February. It actually only rose naught point two percent, but you're gonna tell me yes, but the core measure. If you look at that, that's a lot better.
Quite quite right, Phil. Um yeah, as you say, they had that headline retail sales number. Uh surprise lower. Expectations there were for point six percent after a fall uh in in January uh was reported at at point two percent with a downward revision to to the January number. So the headline looking decidedly soft. Um but a lot of the surprise there was that you know there was a a failure of uh of auto purchases to to ban accounts and the you know certainly what feeds through into the GDP data in terms of you know the source of truth for for consumption ultimately pulls uh auto sales from a a different source which does look a little bit better. Um and so I think you know what what's a little bit more optimistic on the retail sales side is that control group measure as you mentioned.
So that was a bit stronger than expected in February, up one percent. That's after a downwardly revised one percent percent fall in in January. Um and so, you know, I think the the takeaway here is not that you know the US consumer hasn't slowed from from where we saw late last year, but maybe that some of those concerns that there was you know a real step change that the US consumer had just you know completely hit a wall uh were were a little bit overdone.
How have the OECD’s global growth forecasts been revised and what drives those changes?
Um so, you know, we've seen volatility in consumption indicators around year ends and it you know it is those January round of of consumption rates especially that are the most obvious softness in the in the harder data when we think about growth uh for the US at at the start of twenty twenty five. This data doesn't do anything to say that the US consumer isn't on track for a meaningful slowdown in in consumption growth relative to that kind of you know plus four standing US rate we got last year.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why are U.S. equities rallying despite limited market news?
0:01–1:55
2
What does the weaker‑than‑expected U.S. retail sales figure really mean for the economy?
1:55–3:32
3
How have the OECD’s global growth forecasts been revised and what drives those changes?
3:32–5:58
4
What are China’s new consumption‑boosting initiatives and how might they affect the Aussie dollar?
5:58–7:54
5
Could today’s Trump‑Putin talks lead to a Ukraine cease‑fire deal?
7:54–9:38
6
Which upcoming data releases (Canadian CPI, U.S. housing starts, etc.) could move the markets today?
9:38–11:47
7
What will NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang discuss and why does it matter for AI and sustainable computing?
11:47–13:25
8
What are the key takeaways and market outlook as the episode wraps up?
13:25–14:24