Oil and steel kick off a week, that finishes with jobs
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What did President Trump’s steel tariff announcement mean for the markets?
Well, this could be quite a telling week with Donald Trump ramping up his tariff rhetoric on Friday. Are we going to get more of that? Or could it be another bit of Taiko? Uh data from Friday showing consumer income rising a bit more than expected in the US, but spending didn't. And this Friday, non-farm payrolls, a key figure to address the question as to whether or not the US is heading into a recession. It's Monday, it's the second of June twenty twenty five, it's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, the US dollar finished the week a little above ninety nine point three on the DXY from ninety nine point one the week before. So no massive moves. That's about uh naught point two percent, I think.
The Aussie over the week though went from sixty four point nine US cents down to sixty four point three. Now that is a naught point nine percent drop, whereas the euro hardly fell at all last week, the pound was down naught point six percent, the yen down one percent. And it was a mixed day for US equities at the end of the week on Friday the S SP marginally down, the Dow marginally up, the Nasdaq down 0.3%. Over the week, though. The NASDAQ was up uh two per cent. The ASX two hundred last week, by the way, was up naught point nine percent. So, hey, look at us. And bond yields last week. Well, ten year treasury yields lost about eleven basis points last week, down seven basis points for ten year Bundes in Germany, uh just four basis points for ten year guilt in the UK.
Down fifteen basis points though for Aussie ten years yesterday, down to four last week I should say, down to four point two eight percent. And oil fell again on Friday. Brent down naught point nine percent on the day, almost getting down to sixty two a barrel during the session. And uh Nabs Taylor Nugent joins me today from Melbourne. So maybe no surprise the Nasdaq uh doing well last week. We had those Nvidia earnings, of course. Uh they doing particularly well, even though they, you know, supposedly can't sell to China, but that doesn't seem to have hurt their profits. But we're next uh Um given all of the restrictions that that are being imposed on China that could potentially be getting worse.
How are the latest US dollar, equity and bond‑market moves reflecting tariff uncertainty?
Uh and then of course, you know, where next with bond yields having spent most of April and May rising on these tariff concerns and worries about government debt now starting to come back down again. And we've got moving supplies in oil as well and uh geopolitical conc concerns as well. So many so many moving parts right now.
Yeah, good good morning, Phil. There is a lot for markets to be digesting at the moment, as you say. But yeah, I mean you look back um over the past week or even over the past month and you've got an S P five hundred that that's up about six percent over May. That's its best month since November twenty twenty three. I mean as you say, it is kind of, you know, tech stocks um, you know, wrapped in with the the Nvidia themes that you're talking about there that are are kind of supporting that move. Um and then on the other hand, you know, just digesting what tariffs look like going forward, where where are we going to land from from all of this uncertainty? And kind of, you know, I think some of that optimism just reflects that um some of those kind of you know maximalist positions of where tariffs are going to settle longer term have kind of continued to be to be wound back, certainly from where we were in in kind of mid April or or early April if we think all the way back there.
And you know, if we just focus in just on Friday, I mean, you know, we've we've basically got a little microcosm of of those sort of competing themes. You look over the twenty-four hours and the S P five hundred was was little changed, um, but you know, through it was down over one percent at at one point. Um ahead of that it was it was uh up a fair way and it you know clawed back to to essentially little changed and you know just swinging around um on those, you know, tariff headlines effectively. You had the US trade representative, Jameson Greer, talking about uh concerns about China, you know, reneging on on the on the agreement with you know a go slow on on China uh rare earth export licenses, for example.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What did President Trump’s steel tariff announcement mean for the markets?
0:02–1:59
2
How are the latest US dollar, equity and bond‑market moves reflecting tariff uncertainty?
1:59–4:50
3
What are the implications of the new 50% steel tariff for US importers and exporters?
4:50–8:29
4
How is the OPEC+ production increase affecting oil prices and global supply?
8:29–10:50
5
What does the April PCE inflation, income and spending data reveal about US consumer health?
10:50–13:23
6
Will the upcoming US non‑farm payrolls signal a recession or continued growth?
13:23–16:23
7
How are global CPI releases (Germany, Japan, Australia) shaping expectations for central‑bank policy?
16:23–17:09
8
What are the key takeaways and what should listeners watch for in the week ahead?
17:09–17:43