Tepid Trump , Ruthless Rachel and Inflation Insights
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Why are US markets staying upbeat despite President Trump's new tariff threats?
Well, markets in the US seem to be happy despite the TARF concerns, perhaps because Donald Trump is saying that he is ready to negotiate. So it's just a tactic then, as we've seen before. But what has it all done to inflation? The latest US CPI numbers are out today. Meanwhile, the UK Chancellor is ready to be ruthless on cutting red tape for the finance sector and to improve pensions in the UK. She's going to be talking about twenty-four hours. And China showing some resilience uh will look at Where their trade went when it stopped going to the United States. It's Tuesday, the fifteenth of july 2025. It's the morning call from Nav. Good morning. Well, the US dollar has managed to climb a quarter percent today.
Stocks are higher as well, up naught point three percent for the Nasdaq, naught point one percent for the S P and naught point two percent for the DA. The Russell two thousand up naught point seven percent, all of those at the close. And bond yields uh up ever so slightly, two basis points added to ten year treasuries up to four point four three percent. We've got small movements on bonds in Europe, at one basis point for German ten year bonds down two. Uh for the UK ten year guilts up to uh in France and Italy. And Aussie ten year yields yesterday, up four basis points to four point three seven percent. That was yesterday. This morning on futures, uh a couple of basis points higher than that. And the Aussie dollar has lost 0.4%, down to just below sixty-five point five US cents, the pound falling almost as much, the euro down uh 0.2% as well, so is the yen.
And shares are down. In Europe as well, uh a quarter percent off the Eurostocks, 50, 0.4% low for the DAX, but the FTSE one hundred sitting there with its trade agreement and its state visit for Donald Trump, it is up 0.6% today, and Bitcoin getting to a new high, getting over $120,000 today. That is up twenty eight percent year to date, and it's doubled over the last twelve months. What could possibly go wrong there? And oil down today, two point two percent off WTI. One point seven percent off Brent, which is sitting around sixty nine twenty a barrel. And Rodrigo Catrill is here today.
What are today’s key moves in US equities, bonds and currencies?
So US stocks higher again in the US despite all the tariffs, as though the markets are assuming that it is all just a negotiating tactic, but lower in Europe as though they're saying, Well, yeah, we're not quite so sure. And what if it isn't? Yeah. Morningfield is
This is um it's quite an intriguing sort of market reaction in a sense that is pretty benign. No not not big movements and you know, arguably, you know, slightly positive in the US um reflecting either this a complacency in terms of what President Trump uh is proposing or that they they don't believe that it's gonna be this bad. Um now th they they're kind of um You know, we we've spoken about sort of this idea of the taco trade. Um maybe the the whole irony of all of this is that because markets are so benign, then Trump doesn't chicken out. And then and then we end up having a problem in you know, by by the beginning of August. And then we have a high. So
Yeah, so React people basically. Well there was a uh a a twenty two V research survey, uh which according to Bloomberg showed investors see the average effective tariff rate becoming seventeen per cent. Uh they're also saying it's gonna add twenty eight basis points to core inflation in twenty twenty five, which is almost half what what what was expected in the same survey last month. But seventeen percent. Thing is, if tariffs did come down to fifteen or seventeen percent, I mean that Still more than the ten percent baseline last time. Uh so but markets maybe are relieved that it's not thirty or fifty percent. Maybe that's part of it. But there's still gonna be an impact. Someone's still gonna absorb that fifteen percent.
Either the the the producer or the importer uh has still got to absorb that to get it added to the, you know, the tax income for the United States. So, uh, you know, it I mean it is in effect a sort of a s sort of tax on business, but shareholders don't seem concerned about it.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why are US markets staying upbeat despite President Trump's new tariff threats?
0:01–1:58
2
What are today’s key moves in US equities, bonds and currencies?
1:58–4:29
3
How might the latest tariff survey affect US core inflation this year?
4:29–6:47
4
Where is China redirecting its export trade now that US demand is falling?
6:47–9:10
5
What will June’s US CPI numbers reveal about inflation trends?
9:10–11:59
6
How is UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves planning to boost finance by cutting red‑tape?
11:59–14:07
7
What can we expect from today’s Australian consumer‑confidence data after the RBA decision?
14:07–16:22
8
Which US banks are reporting earnings tomorrow and what could their results mean for credit markets?
16:22–18:19