The bounce and the Beautiful Bill
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Why are equity markets restrained while tech stocks continue to rise?
Equity's not as excited today in the United States. Even Boeing is only up half a percent after Qatar signed the biggest deal ever. Supposedly, tech is doing okay. Have equity investors generally, though, started to look at the start of this week and perhaps thought they have overreacted. Whilst bond markets are looking at the big, beautiful bill. Just how beautiful is it? And today we find out if US retail sales took a hit in April, and we look back at yesterday. Today's wages data for Australia as well. And Trump and Zelensky tonight will one of them be a no show. It's Thursday, it's the fifteenth of may twenty twenty five. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well the US dollar fell naught point seven percent today, but then it regained it all.
Uh it's just a little over a hundred and one this morning on the DXY. The Aussie though, down naught point six percent to sixty four point three US cents, a naught point three percent fall in the pound. The euro is looking pretty flat, the yen is up half a percent. All looks a bit risk off, doesn't it? Uh equity's a mix. Good for tech though. The Nasdaq is up naught point seven percent at the close, the S P up just naught point one percent, and the Dow is down. In Europe, most indices are down, half percent off the DAX and the Cat Caron, a quarter percent off the FTSE 100 and the Eurostocks 50. Bond yields quite a bit higher, seven basis points added to ten-year treasuries up to four point five three percent, four on ten-year Gilts, two on ten year bunds, Aussie ten years yesterday, up five basis points to four point four eight percent.
You can add another five basis points to that overnight on futures. And oil is down today, one point one percent off WTI and Brent, taking Brent below sixty six a barrel. But gold also down today over two per cent. So uh what are Trump's deals of the day? Uh 'cause there's always something, isn't there? Although not quite so much today. Let's talk through it all with Nabs Tappa Strickland. Uh well nothing when I say nothing, and there's not a lot to get markets excited, is there?
What is driving the recent rise in bond yields across major markets?
I mean there's talk about lifting sanctions on Syria. Uh and uh to coincide with Donald Trump being in Doha, Qatar Airways placed an order with Boeing, supposedly Boeing's largest ever deal. You can't really see in their share price today. Uh but the White House is saying it's going to create 154,000 jobs in the United States, and of course the president gets a jet aircraft out of it himself. Um but nothing on deals to reduce tariffs anywhere. So almost as though seeing sort of a you know equity market. market's starting to go back down again. It's almost as though they need to be fed this daily news of uh of New Deals or they run out of steam.
Good morning, Phil. Uh yes, oh overnight, really in absence of any top tier data and also an absence of any top tier news flow. Um the US President is obviously still in the Gulf and still signing uh uh uh deals there and to some extent maybe that's supporting a little bit of the chip sector i in the US, so technology stocks outperforming there. But when you look at the overall S P five hundred, it's back uh to where it was at the beginning of this year. So uh in terms of new impetus to drive drive at higher, or that's really gonna have to come from either um uh uh the tax bill uh becoming more likely and adding further stimulus and uh incentives uh to the US economy uh or it's gonna have to come through earnings growth.
Um and so both of those things uh I think will be the future drivers of uh US equities. But at the moment you could say you're broadly in consolidation mode. The SP five hundred is broadly flat uh today and uh obviously tech stocks really Little bit higher. Uh but the bigger move of today uh has really come uh in the FX market and also in the rates markets. Um so if you look at US yields, uh the US ten year yield is up about six point seven basis points to four point five three percent. Yeah. And that four point five uh percent mark is definitely a psychological level there.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why are equity markets restrained while tech stocks continue to rise?
0:01–1:52
2
What is driving the recent rise in bond yields across major markets?
1:52–4:35
3
How might the proposed “Beautiful Bill” affect US equity markets and the fiscal outlook?
4:35–6:31
4
What factors are influencing the US dollar’s volatility today?
6:31–8:53
5
What does the latest Australian Wage Price Index reveal about wage growth?
8:53–11:26
6
How are US‑China tariff reductions impacting container‑shipping volumes?
11:26–13:20
7
Could a meeting between Putin and Zelensky in Turkey reshape geopolitical risks?
13:20–15:07
8
What upcoming NAB CEO insights should listeners look forward to?
15:07–16:28