The ECB, the Fed one day on and the new path for the RBA
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Why did the Fed’s one‑day‑after meeting commentary shift to a more hawkish tone?
So the Fed one day on. We've also got mixed tech news and pricing and gold reaching fresh highs, presumably on the risk of policy uncertainty from the United States. The ECB cuts as expected, and new expectations from NAB anyway, for the RBA. It's Friday, it's the thirty-first of January 2025. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. Well, the US dollar is up a little on the DXY this morning. The biggest moves are a naught point six percent rise in the yen, plus a naught point six percent fall in the Canadian dollar and a one percent fall in the Mexican peso, uh, because it looks like those uh twenty five percent tariffs might be real after all. Uh bonds aren't moving very much in the United States, but ten year bundles down seven basis points in Germany, uh down six uh for UK.
Also down uh six basis points for France, Italy and Spain as well. Aussie ten years, four point three eight percent was the yield yesterday, more like four point four one percent this morning on futures. Shares, meanwhile, down a quarter percent for the Nasdaq a close, up naught point four percent for the Dow, half a percent for the S P five hundred in Europe, a one percent lift in the Eurostocks fifty and the FTSE one hundred, and oil prices up a little, not point seven 7% for WTI, 0.6% for Brent, which is just uh over 77 a barrel. In earnings, after the close, well, Apple's revenue 124.3 billion, beat expectations of 124 billion. That's up 3.9% year on year. Uh $2.40 against expectations of $2.34 for earnings per share.
Uh, but a word of caution, uh iPhone revenues are down. Uh so share. Down over seven percent on after hours trade. So there we are. It's uh Ken Crompton today. So look, tech was mixed yesterday. Uh Microsoft cloud sales disappointed, even though their overall revenue is up. Uh, but Meta and Tesla doing okay thanks to cheaper cars coming for in Tesla's case and uh maybe very little competition, that might help. And and Microsoft admitting Uh they might face some capacity constraints uh meeting their AI demand. That is uh you know, that's uh that's gonna uh provide some execution challenges, as they've called they've called it. So not able to meet demand, that is never a good sign.
How are mixed tech earnings—Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Tesla—impacting market sentiment?
So it's uh it's really is still a very mixed story, isn't it? It's hard to know what to make out of it in the tech space.
Yeah, good morning Phil. Look, I guess if you're having trouble meeting demand, I guess you can always lean on the pricing side of the equation. But uh that's a fair fairly simplistic fairly simplistic response from a semi-control. Well yes, I guess that's that's the other factor. I mean and and obviously that's why we did see such big spillover from the deep sea story earlier in the week into into sectors in Australia such as um you know w uh data warehouse providers, uh yeah, um data centre providers and uh and the real estate sectors that are directly linked to that because there's just the concern there that that maybe there is actually overcapacity. So obviously that's the sort of physical industry overcapacity is slightly different to Microsoft's
specific situation, but I mean depending on the actual long run implications of Deep Seek's models and their processes, then then then there could be flow on from that. Of course there's also some company specific factors at at play there from their individual results, but um there's a lot of uncertainty, a l a lot of different parts that can move there in the in in the tech sector. Exactly.
We're not going to predict where shares go now, but an interesting figure. The Magnificent Seven added five point eight trillion in market cap last year, which is about half of the entire uh increase in market cap for the US stock market as a whole. So if you're looking for a reason uh why growth might slow this year, I mean b that's before you add deep seag, but who knows? You know, we could have said that a year ago. I mean it just keeps on surprising, doesn't it? So let's look at the Fed instead. A day on Uh now had a chance to absorb what was said.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why did the Fed’s one‑day‑after meeting commentary shift to a more hawkish tone?
0:01–2:19
2
How are mixed tech earnings—Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Tesla—impacting market sentiment?
2:19–4:29
3
What does the ECB’s latest rate cut and its ‘no‑forward‑guidance’ signal for Europe?
4:29–6:47
4
Why is the yen the biggest currency mover today and what’s driving its rise?
6:47–8:52
5
How is the latest US GDP, CPI and labour‑market data shaping expectations for Fed cuts?
8:52–11:09
6
What prompted NAB to move the RBA cash‑rate forecast forward to a February cut?
11:09–13:12
7
How are housing‑affordability concerns and supply‑demand dynamics affecting Australian markets?
13:12–15:14
8
What are the key takeaways from the weekend edition on housing supply and price pressures?
15:14–17:34