Them and the rest of us
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Why are US markets rallying after the Trump election results?
Well, I think there is a fair chance that you've heard the news that Donald Trump is now the president elect and he will return to the White House in January. And markets have responded with gusto. Uh maybe there was a Trump trade after all, and we are seeing it today. US equities higher, the dollar higher, bond yields much higher. And how much of that is at the expense of other parts of the world and how long will all this continue for? We look at the Trump reaction today and look ahead to the Bank of England today as well. And the Fed tomorrow. Does anything change now? It's Thursday, it's the 7th of November 2024. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, the impact of a Trump victory, the US dollar is up one point six percent, ten year treasuries are up seventeen basis points, up twenty basis points for thirty years, and the Nasdaq at close, up three percent, two and a half percent for the S P, three point six percent for the Dow, which has Nvidia added to it from tomorrow, and even more for the Rassel two thousand.
Incidentally, Qualcomm earnings after the close, seeing revenue of ten and a half to eleven point three billion. Uh Against estimates of just ten and a half billion. They've also announced fifteen billion dollars as a stock buyback. That's seen their shares up twelve percent in after hours trade. The VIX, meanwhile, has fallen sharply, just under twenty one, a day ago down to sixteen. Gold has fallen three percent and the Tesla share price up fourteen percent. Elsewhere, well, the Aussie dollar is down one percent, down to sixty five point seven US cents the pound. Down down 1.2%, 1.3 quarter percent off the euro, the US dollar also at 1.9% on the Japanese yen. And the win in US equities seems to be at the expense of equities elsewhere.
So the Eurostocks fifty is down one point four percent, one point one percent lower for the DAX. Bond yields have not moved anywhere near to the same extent outside America, so German ten year bonds actually fell two basis points.
How are US equity gains affecting European stock indexes?
Aussie ten years, well they were up. Up six basis points to four point six four percent yesterday. Uh it did get up to four point seven percent, yields up twelve basis points in New Zealand and oil well no big moves, down naught point one per cent for WTI and and a half percent fall in Brent, just below seventy five twenty a barrel now. So let's look at all of that with Nab's Gavin friend this morning from London. Uh so there is a Trump trade after all And there it is, we've just seen it.
Yes indeed. Um so to your point, dollar up, uh yields up, um stocks up, all of these things because markets think that uh Trump, although it hasn't been confirmed that he's won uh a clean sweep or a red sweep just yet, it looks very likely that he's going to take uh the House of Representatives as as as well as the Senate. Um and thereby uh he'll have a clear line through. Uh we should say, of course, that um we're in something of a policy vacuum now because nothing happens until in terms of actual policy, until he has taken the oath of office and he has the inauguration on the twentieth of January. But what we will get is we'll get lots of verbal rhetoric from the man and you know, in terms of the things that he wants to do.
We know the main policy prescriptions are gonna be around tariffs, around immigration deportation, around tax cuts, uh maybe something on Fed independence at some point and maybe on foreign policy vis a vis Ukraine, less so perhaps the Middle East. It's looks like a bit more of an intractable issue to solve. But um you know, all of these things are leading markets to think uh that's gonna mean the Fed is gonna be slightly less, you know, dovish than it was. Um I i you know, it doesn't change anything for the the Fed meeting uh this week or the Bank of England uh today. Um but it's going forward that obviously people are Just uh rethinking some of their views.
Well, yes, I mentioned how at the you know the the it's the long end of the yield curve, isn't it, which is pushed up the most.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why are US markets rallying after the Trump election results?
0:01–1:48
2
How are US equity gains affecting European stock indexes?
1:48–4:11
3
What impact could Trump’s tax‑cut promises have on US bond yields?
4:11–6:33
4
Will the Fed and Bank of England policy meetings change after the US vote?
6:33–8:18
5
How might China’s upcoming stimulus package influence global markets?
8:18–10:15
6
Why are Australian and New Zealand yields reacting differently to US moves?
10:15–12:18
7
What are the latest European economic indicators and their outlook?
12:18–14:54
8
What are the upcoming central‑bank decisions and key data releases this week?
14:54–16:11