Too early, too late and too much
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Why are Nvidia earnings and the Fed minutes impacting markets this morning?
Well, sadly, we can't hold on for Nvidia's earnings before this morning's podcast, so the market could be in a very different place soon. But we have seen the latest Fed minutes, and the Fed will still be flying blind at the next meeting because the November Employment Report now won't come out until after that meeting. Also, today Aussie wages, UK inflation, questions over oil supplies, and a secret plan for Ukraine? All that on this Thursday morning is the Twentieth of November twenty twenty five, it's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. Well, the US dollar is up 0.6% this morning, well over a hundred point one on the DXY. The Aussie has taken a tumble. It's down 0.7% this morning, down to 64.6 US cents.
The Euro and Canadian dollar both down half a percent. Bitcoin down four point one percent, down below eighty-nine thousand earlier, I think for the first time since April. And shares are up a little ahead of the close, and that NVIDIA earning results. The Nasdaq up, and so's the SP, both up a third of one percent, the SP ending a four-day losing streak. But shares are down in much of Europe, half a percent down for the FTSE 100. And in the UK, uh, they are the only significant move for bond yields. So up five basis points for 10-year guilts, up to four point six percent. Aussie ten years, down two basis points yesterday to four point four one percent, up four basis points from that on futures overnight.
And big falls in oil, 2.2% off Brent and WTI. Brent getting down below sixty-three a barrel US dollars earlier. And from a very chilly London, uh, Nabs Gavin Friend joins me. Look, we'll look at those CPI numbers uh from the UK in just a moment, uh, which have uh brought a little bit of warmth perhaps to the uh to the Chancellor there. But let's look at Australia's wage price index yesterday for Q three. Uh Uh last time it was three point four percent. It was expected to be three point four percent this time, and it came in at three point four percent.
There we are. What more can we say? Yes, and at point eight uh Q on Q of course, which is the number that the That the analysts and the RBA like to look at in line with the consensus and in line with the RBA's latest November statement on monetary policy. I think as you as you infer, I mean three point four percent year on year.
How are the US dollar, Aussie, and Euro performing today?
I mean we're off the just above four percent highs of late twenty twenty three, the sort of cycle peaks, but it's still elevated and I guess in a sort of a broad sense a reminder. Of some of the um sort of tightness still in the labour market. that uh I guess plays to our view uh that you know and and others that the RBA's current stance of remaining on hold for an extended period. I think if you look below the surface, you however, the point eight Q on Q to two decimal points, point seven seven, so, you know, on the softer side for choice. And private sector wage growth slow to point seven Q on Q, three point two percent versus is a.9 uh three point eight percent for the public sector. So the private sector obviously accounting, as it does in most economies, for the bulk of the workforce.
And as my colleague Jesse Cameron noted uh earlier uh today, the uh this wage data did include the latest award wage decisions, which itself included a three and a half percent increase. That was down from three point seven five in twenty twenty three and five point seven five in twenty two-23. Wage growth for jobs set by individual agreements, which tend to respond more quickly to labour market conditions, continue to ease. So I think all up, you know, underlying wage wages not really showing signs of reacceleration that was evident in the in that CPI report that we had recently. And you know, the RBA is I think focused elsewhere really in terms of what's driving the inflationary pressures. Exactly.
Well, it's a clear direction, isn't it? I wonder if it's quite such a clear direction for the UK though, where the CPI number came out. Uh the headline inflation rate uh rose three point six percent for the year to October.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
Why are Nvidia earnings and the Fed minutes impacting markets this morning?
0:02–2:17
2
How are the US dollar, Aussie, and Euro performing today?
2:17–5:54
3
What do the latest Australian wage price index and UK inflation numbers reveal?
5:54–9:36
4
How is the Bank of England’s CPI report influencing rate‑cut expectations?
9:36–13:30
5
What budget options could the UK Chancellor use to curb inflation?
13:30–16:21
6
Why is the November US non‑farm payroll data delayed and what does it mean for the Fed?
16:21–17:02