Too slow for Trump?
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What are the key market moves and currency trends this morning?
Interesting times for Jerome Powell. He'll probably want to delay the rate cuts from here, but his new boss probably doesn't see things that way. In the UK, it's a bit easier for the Bank of England. They've just had a cut, but the message was clear. Very gradual from here on in. And the trouble in Germany as well today. Basically, the government there hasn't worked out. That's not going to help the economy move forward, is it? It's Friday, it's the 8th of November 2024. It's the morning call from Nap. Good morning. Well, the US dollar didn't stay higher for long. It's down naught point six percent today on the DXY. The Aussie meanwhile up one point six percent, almost up to sixty-six point eight US cents.
The yen is up one percent, the pound up naught point eight percent, naught point six percent up for the euro. Stocks still rising. Well the Dow finished flat. The others though closing a bit down from their session highs, but the Nasdaq is still up one and a half percent, so record high there. Close, uh, three quarters of one percent for the S P, but the Russell two thousand is down naught point four per cent. And Tesla, by the way, it hasn't reversed the massive rise from yesterday. It's up another almost three percent today. Elsewhere, the Eurostocks fifty is up one point one percent, the FTSE one hundred closed down naught point three percent, the DAX is up one point seven percent, and bond yields moving back down.
So in the US, down nine basis points for ten year treasuries, down. six for ten year guilt yields in the UK, down uh sorry, up I should say four basis points for German ten year bunds. Aussie ten years yesterday were up just one basis point to four point six three percent. Now on futures a few basis points lower than that. And oil higher, although it has retraced uh quite a bit from uh the rises early on in the session, but it's still up half percent for WTI and 0.7% for Brent, which is Gold up 1.7% today. So that is another reversal on yesterday. So JB Wears Sally Ald is with me today.
How did the Fed’s 25‑bp rate cut affect expectations for future policy?
So maybe oil is sort of a remnant of yesterday's Trump trade, if we can call that, and maybe a little bit with equities. But the rest, particularly bond yields, it's turned around, hasn't it? The the the dollar's down, gold is down as well. So perhaps a bit too much enthusiasm on the day yesterday. Today, do you think?
Yeah, good morning, Phil. I think so. So as you said, just seeing some some gentle reversals in in some of those bigger moves that we saw um in the lead up to the election and also post the election. So when we look at something like the Aussie dollar, you know, sitting um, you know, around sixty six, so sixty to seventy, it's actually higher um than it was pre the election result. Um so it's it's definitely sort of settled down a little bit. Uh and as you said, uh oil is up, uh gold is up um after being hit pretty hard on those US election results um and bond yields actually falling. So perhaps, you know, people taking some profit on what have been some some pretty large um and very rapid moves in markets.
Um but I think everyone maybe just taking a bit a bit of a deep breath um now that we know the result and markets have had a a decent move. um and and just sort of letting the dust settle.
Yeah, and asking the question what what does it all mean? Uh what does it all mean for the Fed, for example? It's a b rather awkward timing today actually, 'cause we're recording this while the Fed is sort of they've made the announcement this before the press conference. So we know the announcement, twenty five basis points, uh as expected. Uh so second cut in a row, the big one, now this one. Uh no moves on the markets really. I mean this was totally expected, wasn't it? The question is uh everything is in balance, basically, was the message. message from the the Fed in the statement. Did you take anything out at all from the statement today?
Uh, pretty much only that they're playing a very, very straight bat um this morning. So as you said, they cut by twenty-five. That was basically fully priced by the market.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What are the key market moves and currency trends this morning?
0:01–1:55
2
How did the Fed’s 25‑bp rate cut affect expectations for future policy?
1:55–3:59
3
Will the Trump administration’s agenda slow down U.S. rate cuts?
3:59–7:03
4
How is the Bank of England’s rate cut being shaped by the UK budget?
7:03–9:27
5
What impact could Germany’s coalition crisis and tariffs have on Europe?
9:27–11:58
6
Why are U.S. jobless claims and the labour market still important?
11:58–14:49
7
What do the latest productivity, wage and unit‑labour‑cost figures mean for inflation?
14:49–16:49
8
How might China’s fiscal stimulus influence global markets this week?
16:49–17:26