War of words
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Why is the IEA calling the current oil supply shock the largest in history?
We are experiencing the largest supply disruption in history, according to the IEA. And how long is it all gonna go on for? Well, Iran seems to be suggesting they'll decide that, not the US or Israel. All this rhetoric has been enough to push oil back over $100 for a while as the Straits of Homuz remains effectively closed. With the war coming up for two weeks now, it's Friday. It's the thirteenth of March 2026. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. Yeah. Well, oil is eight or nine percent higher again today, with Brent getting back over a hundred dollars, but dipping just below that now. US equities are lower, one point one percent off the SP, one point three percent lower for the NASDAQ. The falls in Europe today aren't quite as big.
They have been, of course, uh earlier in the week. The Eurostox fifty is naught point eight percent lower, half percent off the FTSE one hundred. In the US, energy and utilities are doing well. They were up over one and a half percent. It's industrials and consumers. Discretionary, which are taking the biggest hit. Ten year bond yields marginally higher in the US, but it's the two years that have seen the most movement. Ten year yields are up nine basis points for the UK today, eight for Italy, six for France, just two for Germany though. Aussie ten years. We were up ten basis points yesterday to four point nine five percent, a couple of basis points on top of that this morning, and the US dollar is up naught point four percent to ninety nine point six
6.3 on the DXY. The Aussie is down 1% to 70.8 US cents. The Swiss franc down half a percent.
How might US Navy escorts reopen the Straits of Hormuz by the end of the month?
So rising bond yields, falling shares, oil back on the rise, and everyone is still unsure as to how this is all gonna end. Uh here's Nabit Nab's Gavin friend uh in the same boat as everyone else. I mean, here we are, we're just about to enter day 14 of the war this weekend, and it's Friday the 13th today. That's a bad omen. Both sides of up the rhetoric, uh particularly the new Supreme Leader, who's basically saying the straits are gonna remain closed uh and they're gonna gonna look to open the war on other fronts if the c if the attacks continue. I mean this isn't gonna weigh in a hurry, is it?
It doesn't seem like it is. I mean, we've had comments from Trez uh President Trump over the last few days, you know, waxing away and in you know, talking on one hand that he thinks this could be over quite soon, and then um late Wednesday talking about not wanting to leave until the job's done, not wanting to leave early. Um and then, you know, on Thursday he made these comments stopping Iran is is of Greater interest to me than oil prices. When oil prices go up, we make a lot of money. And so that's really not what people want to hear. I mean, I think it's interesting that we had some comments again from US Energy Secretary uh Chris Wright. You know, he's he's been talking about the strategic oil reserves and the help that would do.
And of course, the market just doesn't buy that because It's all about the flow. It may be $400 million, a couple of hundred million, sorry, 400 million barrels, maybe a couple of hundred million barrels out of the US. But that's going to take, he thinks, four months to flow through. So, you know, the flow rate is very slow across the board. It doesn't really eat into the loss of production from the closure, the effective closure of the Straits of Hamooz. Um, and you know, he's saying that the good news from him is he's saying, um, I I think that that they think that US Navy escorts down the strait could be uh could could be likely by month's end. Well, that would be great news if it is, but it also suggests that, you know, this thing is going on for a little bit longer.
Um and to your point, you know, the the sort of Velico's language uh from Iran uh suggests that they're in this for a little bit longer too. Yeah.
What is driving the recent rise in bond yields across the US, UK and Europe?
Well, I mean, as the F T's saying today, I mean all those uh ships that are waiting to pass through the strait are all just sitting there loaded up and they're all just sitting ducks waiting, aren't they, for w for attacks.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why is the IEA calling the current oil supply shock the largest in history?
0:01–1:26
2
How might US Navy escorts reopen the Straits of Hormuz by the end of the month?
1:26–3:38
3
What is driving the recent rise in bond yields across the US, UK and Europe?
3:38–5:50
4
Why are UK bond yields spiking and what does this mean for Chancellor Rachel Reeves?
5:50–7:52
5
Which US economic releases (GDP, core PCE, consumer sentiment) will shape market expectations today?
7:52–10:01
6
How will the January UK trade‑deficit narrowing affect Q1 growth forecasts?
10:01–11:57
7
What do the latest New Zealand PMI and manufacturing data indicate for its economic recovery?
11:57–14:13
8
How is Brookfield’s investment team planning to capture AI opportunities while managing risk?
14:13–15:37