Weekend Edition: Does Australia need to spend big on defence?
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How are US tariffs under Trump affecting Australia‑US relations and trade?
So we've been tariffed by Trump, and the US President hasn't been taking Ant in the Albanese's calls this week. So what does that mean for the Australia-US relationship? What does it mean for the ANZUS Pact? Are we on our own when it comes to defence? Or does it mean sooner or later we might have to do what Europe's doing now and spend up big time to build up less reliance, or maybe no reliance, on the United States? And how do investors chart the Their way through this period of economic and military uncertainty. That's this week. The morning call from NEB with Phil Dobby. Well, we have seen a massive shift in attitude in Europe, haven't we, over the last month or so on fiscal limits and on defense, basically borrowing more to spend big on arms to defend Europe and more specifically Ukraine against Russia and assuming less dependency on the United States, who seem to quite like Russia all of a sudden, or at least some of them do.
And we've seen European defence stocks rising as a result. BAE system. For example, in the UK, their share price up by nearly a third in the last month. At the same time, we have a US administration that is applying tariffs left, right, and centre, and seem to be using them as a bit of a bargaining chip to get what they want. And a focus for Donald Trump seems to be, again, China. It's the only country so far where tariffs have stuck for any period of time. We'll see how far the steel analysis. Aluminium Tower scope this week, but all of this while China carries out military manoeuvres along the Tasman, for whatever reason, not far off the coast of Sydney. And so in the midst of all that, where does Australia sit right now?
Sam Rogaveen is uh director of the Lowy Institute's International Security Programme. He was a senior strategic analyst at the Office of National Assessments, which is an Australian intelligence. intelligence agency where he looked at North Asian strategic affairs. So Sam, it feels like we are in a vulnerable position. Australia right now, are we going to have that moment of reckoning like they've had in Europe where we look and we go, okay, we are not well served in our defences and we probably need to spend a lot more money on it.
Well, I think the first thing to observe is that you wouldn't know it by the temperature and the tenor of our public commentary. So there are some really deep searching questions being asked in Canada and in Europe, as you mentioned, about relations with the United States and what it means for uh their defence policy, uh, but also for their for their foreign policy more broadly. Uh, you don't hear those questions as loudly in Australia. Uh you you do in the in the public commentary from people like me, but you don't hear it from our politicians.
Is that because they don't have an answer? I mean, in Europe it's an easier answer, isn't it? Because I mean there's a population there of half a billion I mean even more if you've sort of formed an alliance with with Canada. Uh whereas obviously we've got a very small population. Uh we we w we almost need to pick a side, don't we?
Uh no, I certainly don't think we need to pick a side. Well i if there's a side to be picked, it's the side that says Australia. Uh it doesn't need to be China or the US. Um but I think w what one reason why that debate's not occurring quite so much in Australia is because effectively the two major parties collude to ensure uh that it doesn't uh dominate. Uh there's a Uh an election coming up very soon. Uh date hasn't been set, but uh it will be very soon, and neither major party really benefits, I think, from uh that election being dominated by foreign policy and about questions of the relationship with the United States. It's also true that the the alliance with the United States is in the DNA of both of our major parties.
In fact so much so that they both claim it as their progeny. Uh they both have some historical claim to that.
What does Europe’s defence spending surge mean for Australia’s security strategy?
You know, the switch to the United States was made under a Labour government during the Second World War.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
How are US tariffs under Trump affecting Australia‑US relations and trade?
0:01–3:55
2
What does Europe’s defence spending surge mean for Australia’s security strategy?
3:55–8:08
3
Why does Sam Roggeveen argue Australia should rethink AUKUS and US air‑force basing?
8:08–11:45
4
Can Australia rely on its geographic distance to deter Chinese aggression?
11:45–15:58
5
Is a massive defence‑budget increase necessary for Australia or should spending be re‑targeted?
15:58–20:11
6
How do finance and betting markets price geopolitical risks in the Indo‑Pacific?
20:11–24:01
7
What are the prospects of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and its impact on Australian defence planning?
24:01–27:50
8
Should Australia reduce reliance on US military assets and consider charging the US for basing rights?
27:50–31:12