Weekend Edition: Harris or Trump. Who wins. What changes?
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What are the main factors influencing the Trump vs. Harris race?
Trump or Harris? Who is gonna win? And if it is Trump, what does that mean for the global economy if America imposes massive tariffs on all imports? And what does it mean to the US economy if they get rid of millions of undocumented migrants? A week and a half out, let's look at what might happen and we'll ask the question, will it really be that big a change? Despite all Trump's rhetoric, that's this weekend. The morning call from NAB with Phil Dobby. The way.
Weekend edition.
Well, the fifth of November is looming. It seems like the US election could go either way. But we're seeing a lot of mixed signals. I mean Donald Trump has a lot of bolted on supporters, obviously. Kamala Harris seems to be winning some new respect. She's rising in the favorability ranks. But if you look at the betting averages, well Trump is way out in front if they are a signal. But let's see what the story is and what we should be looking for and what happens next. What happens if Donald Trump does win, or perhaps even worse, what happens if he loses? Let's talk to someone who knows a lot about the US political system. John Barron is an ABC journalist. He's co host of Planet America on ABC News, along with Chas from The Chaser.
Uh John has also written a few books on politics, including Vote for Me, which looks at the history of US presidential elections. Now, you might be aware of this, John. Your name, John Barron was used as an alias by Donald Trump before he was involved in politics. He basically used it as a name for his publicist, which actually turned out to be him. I'm sure you're aware of that story, aren't you?
Yeah, it sometimes is a problem, Phil, when we uh when we ask to do interviews with people in the United States and they'll say, Who's the interview with? John Barron, it's like gosh, cow
Or or y or no, let's get him on movie. Yeah,
yeah. Exactly. Yes, no, it was my name that he was using when he was falsely claiming to be going out with Madonna in the nineteen eighties when calling up the New York New York Post. So yeah, it should have been a warning to all of us, I guess.
It should be. Anyway, look let's look at uh today. I think he's dropped that name now, obviously because you are just so prolific, he thought there's no point in competing. So um d d uh do you believe the polls? Because y they have now that you know, if you look at the popular vote Kamala Harris winning by a narrow var margin, whereas if you look at the the betting odds, they've got Trump as a clear winner. In fact the odds have widened in the last month. So basically a sixty forty split if you look at the betting odds. So I I and that would be a safer one to go on, wouldn't it? 'Cause people are putting their money behind, you know, their their accusation or their assumption.
Yeah, I guess the question with that is, Phil, on what are they basing that assumption? Uh what what are the people on the betting markets looking at if it's not the polls? Is it the fundraising? Well, if it's the fundraising, Kamala Harris is making about three times as much money as Donald Trump is. If they're if they're looking at the size of the rallies, well, Kamala Harris is also putting on some very big rallies. Uh what they could be looking at, Phil, which could make sense, is they're looking at the polls, which do have Kamala Harris, a little under two percentage points in front in the average of national polls. Uh and they're assuming that there will be a polling miss uh that underestimates Donald Trump's support by about four or five percentage points, which happened in both twenty sixteen and twenty twenty.
So if the polls are out by the same amount that they were in the last two presidential elections, then in fact Donald Trump's gonna win this election quite easily. The polls, though, uh have been adjusted since since uh twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. The decisions that were made, and obviously polling in the United States is is doubly difficult because with non compulsory voting, you don't know who is going to vote for Donald Trump, you don't know who's going to vote for Kamala Harrison, you don't know who's going to stay at home.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What are the main factors influencing the Trump vs. Harris race?
0:01–9:10
2
How reliable are current polls compared to betting markets?
9:10–16:36
3
What could a Trump victory mean for US tariffs and global trade?
16:36–23:49
4
How would massive deportations affect the US economy and labor market?
23:49–29:13
5
What are the economic and political motivations behind Trump’s policies?
29:13–35:20
6
Could a watered‑down Trump administration still benefit America?
35:20–37:41