Weekend Edition: Will the Republicans Sail Through the Mid-Terms?
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What is the “iron law of mid‑term loss” and how does it apply to President Trump’s party?
We are a long way from the midterms in the United States, actually about a quarter of the way through it so far, so there's a lot more policy news to come from President Trump. But could his effective power be short-lived? Could he be a lame duck president after the midterms? And if not, what about when he finishes his full term? Does American politics swing back? Or has the direction been set? Is making America great again here to stay? this week. The morning call from NAB with Phil Dobby. The weekend edition. It would be nice to know, wouldn't it, how long the world will be facing the radical policy shifts that we've been seeing from President Trump. Good or bad, obviously, depending on your viewpoint.
For example, can we say this period of hefty tariffs could be short lived because perhaps Donald Trump loses control at the midterms and his aspirations to do more are thwarted. Certainly Elon Musk is firing up to be his arch enemy, but Maybe even if we do have to wait till the end of his term in office, even if he makes it all the way through under control, will American politics swing away from this MAGA philosophy at the end of the full term or has that become the new normal? In other words, is President Trump a fad or representing a fundamental shift in US politics? And if it's a fundamental shift, will it withstand the impact of disruption? Interrupted supplies, higher prices, less foreign investment, and an even weaker US dollar.
If indeed any of those things do happen. So let's have a look at uh the midterms first of all with Dr. Deborah Leiter. Deborah is an associate professor with the Department of Political Science and Philosophy at the University of Missouri, Kansas City. So Deborah, it's uh it's an immutable law, isn't it, that the President's party, whatever the political persuasion It's gonna lose some seats in the midterms.
Absolutely. Uh we sometimes call this the iron law of midterm loss. In uh since nineteen thirty four, the president's party has only picked up seats in the house three times. Um and one of those was essentially right after September eleventh. So presidents' parties lose seats in the House. They don't always lose seats in the Senate. Uh in fact actually sometimes they pick it up, but presidents tend to face a hard time two years into their term in maintaining control uh of the House of Representatives.
And just so everyone understands how American politics works, which is everyone, you know, you al always either just had or just leading up to an election, midterms are when all the seats in the House of Reps are voted for again uh and about a third of the Senate. So people in the House of Reps are only there for a couple of years, so they get voted again, then a third of the Senate uh so uh uh as far as the parties are concerned, uh it's almost as big an event as the uh as the presidential elections in some ways.
Absolutely. Um, the United States system is such that without a congressional majority, presidents have relatively little that they can do. Uh in some fact, sometimes we argue that presidents have a two-year presidency, that they have their first two years to govern to get policies passed when they have a majority, and then after that it's going to Congress hat in hand and asking for their help in passing. So with our short American election cycle, one of the shortest uh in the world. Presidents and members of Congress have relatively little time to get things done.
What do early voter surveys say about who will win the House and Senate in the 2026 mid‑terms?
Uh we also sometimes, by the way, joke that members of the House of Representatives really have a one year term, one year to govern and one year to campaign to govern again.
It just gets worse, doesn't it? Uh but I mean there have been some big losses. So Bill Clinton lost a lot of house seats uh in his first midterm. So did uh Barack Obama, so did actually Donald Trump his first time, and he was uh down to two hundred house seats out of four hundred and thirty five last time, but he retained control of the Senate. So how effectively can you function really if you've lost the House but you got control of the Sonnies?
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the “iron law of mid‑term loss” and how does it apply to President Trump’s party?
0:01–3:25
2
What do early voter surveys say about who will win the House and Senate in the 2026 mid‑terms?
3:25–6:50
3
How reliable are President Trump’s current approval ratings for predicting the election outcome?
6:50–10:09
4
Will Trump’s tariff policy and other fiscal tools be short‑term measures or lasting changes?
10:09–13:35
5
If Republicans keep control after the mid‑terms, how might Trump’s agenda evolve over the next four years?
13:35–16:46
6
Is American politics moving toward greater polarization, and what does that mean for moderate voters?
16:46–19:55
7
What strategic challenges do Democrats face in mobilizing their base and attracting swing voters?
19:55–22:51
8
What are the key takeaways and predictions for the 2026 election as the episode wraps up?
22:51–24:47