Will US jobs survive the tariff war?
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What is the big question about US jobs and the tariff war?
So the big question, will US jobs survive the tariff war? They have done so far, strong payrolls on Friday, and if President Trump manages to negotiate some sort of trade war truce with China, or if US companies manage to source supplies from elsewhere like Apple says they're doing, could the US economy make it through all this uncertainty without the scars of unemployment? But can it all be done without rising prices? Monday, it's the 5th of May 2025. It's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. So markets, yes, are fuelled by optimism again. On Friday, the Dow finished up one point four percent, one and a half percent for the S P, one and a half percent for the Nasdaq. So the Nasdaq up three point four percent on the week before, and not far short of that eighteen thousand mark that it fell below for the first time this year in early March, and it's bounced back five percent since the low that we saw in early April.
So definitely on the up. Stocks are feeling good in other places. As well. The Eurostocks 50 up 2.4% on Friday, 2.6% for the DAX, 1.2% for the FTSE 100. The Hang Seng was up 1.7%. In Oz, the ASX 200 rose 1.1%. Bond yields were much higher as well on Friday, up 9 basis points for 10-year Treasuries. The same for German Bundes. In fact, the same for much of European bonds on Friday. The same also for Canada. Aussie 10 years rose three basis points. Points to four point two one percent on Friday, but of course our Friday finished earlier, uh up to four point two seven percent now on futures. So that's another six basis points. Meanwhile, uh the US dollar fell a quarter percent to more or less a hundred on the DXY.
And this more positive sentiment that we're seeing is certainly helping the Aussie dollar, which was up nort eight percent on Friday to sixty four point three US cents. The yen rose nort point three percent. Not much going on in Europe though, all with the with the euro all with the pound. But oil prices are low. One point six percent for WTI, one point four percent for Brent, down to sixty one thirty a barrel, and gold is rising, naught point seven percent for Comics Cold uh gold. In fact Comics and SPO uh both at three thousand two hundred and forty per ounce.
How did Friday’s equity rally and bond‑yield moves reflect market optimism?
Uh so that's interesting isn't it? The commodity story is not really telling the growth story that uh equities are suggesting. So let's talk about all of this with Tappa Strickland. And uh there is obviously still hopes of a a better relationship between the US and China. Uh so that's part of the news today, isn't it? But also the the good news uh from payrolls on Friday. Markets seem to have been quite responsive to that.
Good morning, Phil. Yes, there was definitely a risk on s session on Friday and really started uh in the Asian time zone when those reports came out uh that uh China was hinting um at uh assessing whether they were open for for talks. Uh and so the China's Commerce Ministry said in a statement that it had noted senior US officials uh repeatedly expressing their willingness to talk to Beijing about tariffs and urged official sho officials in Wash uh in Washington to show sincerity towards. China. So uh that really saw um equity futures higher. So uh into uh the the US session, US equity futures were already up about one point one percent. And when you look at the SP five hundred it rose one point five percent.
Okay. So a lot of the moves is really coming from the optimism uh or potential optimism around uh US China tensions.
But there we are, you see you're using that word potential 'cause it it 'cause it does feel like it's sort of like well uh you know that it's well we're considering talking. You know, we're we're contemplating the idea that we'll talk about whether or there's something that we could do. It seems like two steps removed and yet markets are still enthusiastic. Still, you know, Still you know uh
and as you say, actions do speak louder than words here. And uh in that respect, there have been two separate um actions uh occurring, which is giving um some investors out there a little bit of hope uh that that there is some kind of endpoint.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What is the big question about US jobs and the tariff war?
0:01–2:03
2
How did Friday’s equity rally and bond‑yield moves reflect market optimism?
2:03–9:33
3
What recent actions by China and the US suggest a possible trade‑war truce?
9:33–11:34
4
How is Apple reshaping its supply chain to mitigate tariff risk?
11:34–14:53
5
What do the latest US non‑farm payroll numbers mean for the Fed’s rate‑cut timeline?
14:53–16:19
6
Why are Australian retail sales and RBA expectations diverging from US trends?
16:19–16:32