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Chapter 1: Who is Andy Burnham and why is he the front-runner for Prime Minister?
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Hei, mitä jos mun auton rengas puhkee? Autoliitto auttaa. Avaimet jää autoon. Autoliitto auttaa. Hyytyy tien poskeen tai tartten apuvirtaan. Autoliitto auttaa. No mites tämmöset sit kotipihalla, mökillä tai Saksassa ja Lofoteilla?
Lofoteilla. Siellä on kaunista. Autoliitto auttaa. Entäs jos kala nappaa? Vapaa ylös ja siima kireelle. Jos mutkia tulee matkaan, Autoliitto auttaa kelloon katsomatta. Liity plus jäseneksi autoliitto.fi. Hello, Henry. Hello, Joe. On Sunday's newscast, you were talking, some would argue moaning, about how you balance major political events and major international football.
How's that going for you? Very badly. Very badly. And I was absolutely moaning. And I don't moan about the fact that I wake up very early for the BBC because it's a privilege to do this job in this week of all weeks. But obviously, I was starting from a position of disadvantage with the kickoff times of this World Cup. But I haven't even had a chance to watch any of the highlights.
Monday morning, I was in Downing Street from five in the morning hearing people say, oh, did you see when Cape Verde went a goal up against... I can't even remember who they were playing, Joe. This is crazy. The last time there was a World Cup in the Americas, I watched every single match. And look at me now. So it is quite distressing. But I think things have calmed down a little bit now.
So I might be able to watch the England match tonight at least. Yeah, I mean, it's now Tuesday. Perfect timing because, weirdly, Westminster was really busy yesterday and things have suddenly fallen silent, really. And that's great because actually the Labour leadership timetable maps quite neatly onto the rest of the tournament.
We will, assuming there is not a full contest, and we'll come on to that, have a new prime minister two days before the World Cup final. But, of course, that means quarters, semis. It should be pretty quiet, no? Do you think it's a coincidence? Well, I think it sets up a massive moment, doesn't it?
Which is that when England are inevitably in the World Cup final that Sunday, it could well present the new prime minister with their first opportunity to meet President Trump. And Keir Starmer will be very sad to miss that if it does happen. Plenty to discuss on this episode of Newscast. Newscast.
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Chapter 2: What challenges does Burnham face from potential leadership rivals?
Humanity's next great voyage begins. You know I like my buses. I'll come on to them. It's supposed to be me as a doctor. Ooh la la. Thinking about it like a panto helped.
Do we play music now or what do we do?
Hello, it's Joe in Westminster. Hello, it's Henry in Westminster. And it's Darshini in Westminster. Let's start, guys, with an email from newscaster Linda. She has emailed Chris. Dear Chris, newscast, she says, is essential listening for me and for a long time. I've been amazed at how you all ooze stamina in every episode. Nevertheless, your vocal chords are delicate.
I write as a retired speech and language therapist who did a lot of adult voice work. You don't need me to tell you how vital your voice is and how you've quite obviously been overworking it. If you listened to yesterday's newscast, you'd have heard... Chris Mason's strained voice, he's today been given the day off. In his place, Henry Ndarshini. Let's start with you, Henry. Where are we?
Yesterday, Chris was talking about the likelihood of a Burnham coronation. Has anything changed? Not really. I think likelihood is still the right word to use to describe it. What we do have are two additional names of people who are at least publicly toying with standing for the Labour leadership.
They are Darren Jones, Cabinet Minister, Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister, which is a new job that was invented for him. Before that, he was Chief Secretary to the Treasury. So essentially, Rachel Reeves is number two. And the other name is... is Al Carnes.
Some newscasters will remember that he resigned as a junior defence minister just a few weeks ago in protest at the government's plans on defence spending just after John Healey had resigned as defence secretary. But even though we now have those two names, it seems pretty unlikely still...
for each of them to actually go through with standing, and even if they did, it feels pretty unlikely as it stands that they would get the magic number of 81 MPs in order to then take on Andy Burnham, who clearly has 81 and then some, with the Labour membership. And how visible are their campaigns?
Do you have any idea who might be running them, if they have any MPs, or is it just the name and the speculation which is out there? I don't think we're at the stage of whether they have individual named MPs who are sort of leading surrogates, as they'd be called in America. But we can sort of see what wing of the party, in particular, Darren Jones's campaign emanates from.
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Chapter 3: How might the Labour leadership contest affect Burnham's cabinet choices?
His is a sort of slightly different, less ideological force and more about his own personality and his own background. And is it sceptical to say, are these two men just wanting big jobs in a Burnham cabinet? It's certainly what a lot of MPs are saying today, including people who I thought might at least be open to the idea of backing them.
And that's one of the reasons why I say it feels pretty unlikely that either of them is much of a goer. Andy Burnham was being followed yesterday by journalists, by helicopters on his trip down to London. Do we have any idea where he is today, what he's doing? Is he coming to do TV interviews and face any scrutiny? Not today on that last question. He's meeting MPs.
I'm not sure precisely where, but I think somewhere in Parliament. But I've spoken to a good handful of MPs today, ranging from people who've known him for years to MPs who have never met him. who have been called to see him. Those meetings are being arranged by some of those MPs who we saw accompanying him on the train down and to his swearing in.
So Sally Jameson, who represents a seat in Doncaster, and Elise Midgley, MP for Knowsley and Merseyside. And they are arranging for Andy Burnham to make his case in private. We saw them behind him on a sort of celebratory event he did in Makerfield. Exactly. All these women in sunglasses who sort of run the campaigns. Well, I wasn't there that day, but I mean, it looked sunny.
So, yeah, fair enough. But I forgot my sunglasses in Downing Street this morning. So it's a bit of a sore point. They're much better prepared than me for all sorts of things. But yes, I think Andy Burnham is meeting MPs because I think you can't make the point enough. Sure, he's a familiar figure. He ran for the Labour leadership for 16 years ago, second 11 years ago.
But he left Parliament nine years ago. And there has been an extraordinary amount of churn in British politics and therefore in the Parliamentary Labour Party since then. The 2017 election, the 2019 election where Labour lost so many seats, the 2024 election where Labour won so many seats.
So actually, the vast majority of the Parliamentary Labour Party barely know the man, even as the vast majority of the Parliamentary Labour Party appears to have decided that he is the man for the moment. A churn in British politics. What about the churn in the markets, Darshini? We'll talk about Burnham's economic inheritance in a second. But when Starmer went yesterday, what did we see?
All the drama was on Downing Street and not in the city is the short answer to that one. We didn't see much at all. I mean, it was really fascinating because at the start of the year, when I went and talked to major investment houses, you know, British ones and international ones and said, what's the biggest concern about the UK? What's keeping you awake at night?
And they all said political instability and that risk. Here we are. The prime minister resigns. And have they all gone to the beach? Actually, no, because they, like us, knew that this was likely to be coming. And the big question, they expected it. And the big question was then what next? Who are the personalities who are going to be in number 10, number 11?
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Chapter 4: What are the implications of Burnham's potential economic policies?
So I'm not just speaking off on behalf of my former people.
You were saying then the bond markets are not bond villains, I think was the line from that big economic speech last week.
They are the government's lenders, and that's the way we've got to think of them, right? So they are responsible for making sure they have the money to carry out plans, but we don't want the interest payments to get too high, which is why there's this kind of uneasy relationship between the markets and politicians at the best of times. So they're saying, we want to see how generous the plans are.
if they are credible, and also do they risk putting up inflation and interest rates? All of those questions, they've got months to be answered. We're going to have lots of speculation, of course, in the meantime about who the chance is going to be, what the budget's going to look like, all those things, what the fiscal rules may or may not look like eventually.
This is all very much déjà vu or 2024 all over again already.
And what do we know about Andy Burnham's sort of economic perspectives? Maybe not much, but what little bits can we try and assemble together?
We know that Burnanomics is very hard to say.
We also know that we don't know... You did it smoothly. Do you think so?
I've had a bit of practice in the last few days, but we don't know exactly what that would look like. But when you look at some of the things that have been said over recent weeks and months, things like having more state control in utilities, we don't know what that will look like. More social housing.
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Chapter 5: How do MPs perceive the likelihood of rival candidates emerging?
Rachel Reeves was at that welcome photo call in Westminster yesterday. Does anyone you speak to, Darshini, think that Rachel Reeves will be able to hang on to her job as Chancellor? Because the argument for it is that would provide stability for the markets.
Stability, credibility, all those words. Do you remember how the markets had that major wobble when she, frankly, had a bit of an emotional wobble in Parliament? She was in tears. Well, she was in tears. And, you know, that goes to show exactly how much door they put by the path she has chosen, put it that way.
And she's been very keen to show that she has chosen that particular sort of path of stability. But having said that, is it the case that nobody else can take that one on? Andy Burnham, you know, this whole kind of, I'm not going to be a hawk to the bond market, seems to be a thing of the past. And he seems very intent on showing stability.
That is going to stick to this path that she's carved out, you know, in some form or other. And does that message carry on? And therefore, who do you pick to be chancellor within that? Is it going to be someone like Ed Miliband? You say, no, no, but you have to stick to this particular. These are the first. I'm the first lord of the treasury. This is the path you're taking.
And you just have to work out things within that.
Because that phrase, First Lord of the Treasury, is literally on the door to number 10. That is one of the titles the PM has.
That is. Or when I looked at that statement from West Reading the other day, it did read a bit like, didn't it, that kind of cover letter you slap in with an application for a job and that bit about the economy. So is that a kind of a very overt, actually, look, I get your vision. I'm going to be doing, you know, pick me.
And you mentioned that the markets didn't react to Starmer going. Could they react to a choice of Chancellor?
Yes, they could react to a choice of Chancellor. But I think a lot depends on, you know, we're expecting to hear more from Andy Burnham on his vision for the economy. And I think a lot will depend on what he sets out there. And in that case, it may become more than just about the personalities. And it's not, no, we all look at number 11, absolutely right thing to do.
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Chapter 6: What role does the Chancellor play in a Burnham-led government?
I think it was quite uneconomical and they also hadn't got deep enough roots. So anyway, they ended up taking the trees out and also there was some sort of reflecting pools there. That's very topical. Exactly. Not algae filled, but they got rid of those as well. Anyway, Jonathan Reynolds was mentioned to me in Portcullis House by a Labour MP who's very much in Team Burnham.
They were just openly musing on whether he might be simultaneously able to reassure the markets. He was previously business secretary. He's currently chief whip. Yes. He's not particularly happy in that job, but he's also a greater Manchester MP. Yeah, and was at Andy Burnham's campaign launch in Makerfield, which felt a little bit provocative at the time, but... Ambitious? For sure. And...
has had an economic portfolio in the past, as I say. The other name someone mentioned to me, actually a few people have mentioned, is John Healey, who of course resigned as Defence Secretary earlier this month. He was a Treasury Minister under Gordon Brown in the Treasury back in the New Labour years, I think for quite a while.
But obviously, given what John Healey has said, given the reason for his resignation, that would commit a Burnham government instantly to to really quite a steep increase in defence spending. And that is one of the many issues where we're not quite sure where Andy Burnham stands.
For whoever walks into the Treasury in maybe three and a half, four weeks' time, what will they inherit and what does she need other big challenges ahead?
It's really funny, isn't it? We talk about all these people who could be vying for this job or could be in the frame. And I also heard, by the way, Pat McFadden and Yvette Cooper. So many names. But why would you want this job? Because if somebody said, come in here, it's great. You've got all this power. The power, the money. But actually, you haven't got much to play with.
And I think that is going to be the reality. And it feels like such a long time ago now when we speak about the spring statement. But at the time, we heard Rachel Reeve stand up there and said, don't worry, I'm going to meet these rules on borrowing and I'm going to have over £23 billion to spend. £23 billion, not a huge amount by previous standards, but not a bad amount either.
But then the war came along and we think, we do not know, we don't have clarity on it and we won't until nearer the budget time, how much of that might have been kind of used up by the kind of extra strains on the economy. But what that does signal is when you hear the kind of scale of plans that Andy Burnham has already hinted at, There may not be enough to stretch to that.
And then you have to come up with other ideas, don't you? You're going to have to come up with other ideas about do you raise more taxes? Who does that go on? Are you going to have to sort of pull money away from other bits of spending, including perhaps welfare reform?
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Chapter 7: How might Burnham's leadership impact Labour Party unity?
So he was an interest rate setter. He is not just the person who is going to be looking at the government's plans or Andy Burnham's plans, as they may well be. and sort of rubber stamping those and saying, have you met the rules and does this all add up? But there's something additionally a bit interesting about his background, which is that his speciality is productivity and the impacts of AI.
And why does that matter? It means that the government can go to him and say, we want to invest in X, Y, and Z. can you say that, yep, you have the vision to believe that that can boost growth further down the road? And that in turn means they've got a bit more resources further along the way as well. So one to watch and the answer to a question that many of us have been asking for a while.
And also we seem to have had signs that a process that normally takes place in the run-up to general elections with possible changes of government is also now starting in Whitehall. That's right. Confirmed by the Prime Minister's official spokesperson at a briefing for journalists earlier today.
We don't know quite how this will work, but there are going to be access talks for any Labour leadership contender. Of course, at the moment, there's only one publicly declared Labour leadership contender.
So that means that Andy Burnham and all his representatives will presumably begin talking to Antonio Romeo, the cabinet secretary and the head of the civil service and permanent secretaries who run different government departments, I'd assume pretty soon. And that's obviously a very significant moment.
I think it has happened, by the way, with leadership elections in the past when the Conservatives had sort of longer handovers. You know, I think the summer of 2022, when it became clear that Liz Truss was
likely to succeed boris johnson she spent a lot of time with simon case the then cabinet secretary talking about what she would do um obviously that ended quite badly for her but um uh yeah so it's a significant moment in in in terms of a symbol of what happened yesterday, which is Keir Starmer gave up office. And what's he up to now? He had some sort of drinks party yesterday evening.
Are we aware of anything he's doing because of the sort of oddity of his situation? He's not really allowed to make many big decisions anymore, is he? No, that's right, although we are told that he will still publish the Defence Investment Plan, long awaited, originally set for publication last autumn. The plan, the funding of which prompted John Healey's resignation as Defence Secretary.
Exactly, and possible Labour leadership contender Al Carnes as well. And look, it suddenly becomes even more controversial than it already was, because when it is published, obviously one of the massive questions is what do whoever is in the Labour leadership race at that point think of it?
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Chapter 8: What are the broader political implications of Burnham's rise?
I should mention, by the way, that if we look at the plans that Rachel Reeves has drawn up, the way she's made the sums add up and met these fiscal rules means that you've got some really tight spending figures for various departments towards the end of this parliament. And that could mean some services...
feel the squeeze once again so let's not pretend there's lots sloshing out there you just have to sort of put your hand on the back of some sofas that's not how you fund the defence plan
It's sort of been easy up to this point for Andy Vernon. It's going to get a lot more difficult if he is to get the top job. Well, to end where we started, I saw this from Tom Peck at the Times, their parliamentary sketch writer.
Harry Kane, John Stones and Jordan Henderson look set to become the first England internationals to go through a change of prime minister during a major international tournament for a record-breaking third time. Gosh.
Well, I guess it's both a sign of their longevity as international footballers, because it's slightly surprising that Tuchel called Jordan Henderson up to the squad, much as I'm a big fan. But yeah, also, that is the most creative way yet that I've heard of describing the political churn we've seen in recent years. Well done, Henry. Henry Ndarshini, thank you so much.
Good luck in trying to watch the game tonight. Adam will be back tomorrow. Hopefully Chris's voice has recovered. Newscast will be back very soon. Goodbye.
From one newscaster to another, thank you so much for making it to the end of this episode. You clearly do, in the words of Chris Mason, ooze stamina. Can I also gently encourage you to subscribe to us on BBC Sounds. Tell everyone you know. And don't forget, you can email us anytime at newscast at bbc.co.uk. Or, if you're that way inclined, send us a WhatsApp on plus 44 0330 123 9480.
Be assured, I promise, we listen to everyone.
Autoliitto auttaa. Mökillä, tien päällä, lofoteilla.
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