What Campaign Spending Reveals About the 2026 Midterms
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What does Mark’s opening monologue reveal about the 2026 midterm outlook?
Welcome in, everybody. This is NextUp. I am Mark Calperin. Glad to have you here. I'm the editor-in-chief of the live interactive video platform Two-Way, the host of NextUp, your guide to everything NextUp, including the midterms that are fast approaching. We're going to talk about that today. Glad you've made time to join us. Steve Hilton will be here. He's been here before. He's the Republican nominee for governor in California. He took on a very hard assignment, trying to get an elected governor of California as a Republican has proved to be difficult for a long time. And Steve, in some ways, was the perfect person to do it. We'll talk to him today about where the campaign stands, what he's learned, and what he thinks the future holds for his important state.
And Dan Cena will be here, our friend who's the host of Call Me Back, really one of the smartest people in America understanding the Middle East. Dan's program is much must-listen material, and we're always happy to have him here for a check-in, both on the Middle East and what's going on here at home today. excited to talk to them both about the midterms and about particularly about Iran with Dan. Before they join us, though, my reported monologue on the midterms. My mission between now and Election Day is to make NextUp the place you come to learn what's actually going on in the midterms. Not a left-wing view, not a right-wing view, not an ignorant view, not a view informed by stupidity or meaninglessness or off-base fake data, but based on my ability to talk to people
strategists in both parties people in the states people in the individual campaigns the party committees the super packs and voters across the country part of why two-way is such a great platform for me as a journalist is i get to talk to on the program but also hear from so many people and i'm going to read to you an email i got from a member of the two-way community that i think is super instructive about where things stand. So first thing I want to tell you is stop complaining about the polls. If you don't like them, if you don't think they're accurate, stop reading them. The polling business is in crisis. Even people in polls in the polling business will tell you that, maybe especially people in the polling business.
But I don't pay that much attention to them. I do get a lot of questions about them. said this before, focus on polls by reputable people, no matter whether they're in the media, at universities, or in politics. Focus on a range of polls over a period of time. Don't think one poll, if it's an outlier, is definitely true. A poll that's different from the previous polls may show change and facts on the ground, but it may just be an outlier, either because it was poorly done or just because that's how polls go. So I've focus on polls done for campaigns, party committees, and rich people, because they're well-funded. They're well done. They're done with the methodology and the rigor and the funding that are required to do great polls.
I look at the public polls, but far, far less often. So where are we now? As I've told you, on this trajectory, we're dealing with a blue tsunami. We're dealing with a big Democratic night, despite the redistricting efforts of Republicans. despite the fact that a lot of these Senate races are in red states that President Trump won. That's where we are. That's the trajectory we're on. I've got to remind you, just because of the nature of the world, I'm not rooting for that outcome. I'm not even predicting it. I'm telling you that's where we are now. Just as polls are a snapshot of the moment, Okay? So is our reported analysis. My monologue today is telling you what's happening now and what would have to happen, I think, to change it.
But why do I say where we are now is really bad for Republicans? I look at the national environment, and then I go race by race. And I talk to people. And in this case, Republicans are going to have a lot of credibility if they're working on key races. They're not interested in panicking.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What does Mark’s opening monologue reveal about the 2026 midterm outlook?
0:02–8:31
2
How are Republicans’ massive campaign‑spending plans shaping the “blue tsunami” scenario?
8:31–17:24
3
Why are Republican voters and Trump supporters feeling discouraged or conflicted?
17:24–26:08
4
What is Steve Hilton’s strategy for flipping California and addressing the affordability crisis?
26:08–35:32
5
How will negative ads and voter‑contact spending impact the upcoming House and Senate races?
35:32–44:48
6
What is the current state of the Iran‑Saudi conflict and how might Israel be involved?
44:48–51:04
7
How could a new Saudi‑Israel security partnership reshape the Middle East?
51:04–1:00:17
8
What are the key predictions for the 2026 midterms and the next political cycle?
1:00:17–1:08:17
Speakers
1 identifiedMore from Next Up with Mark Halperin
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