Who Is Winning the Iran War: Tehran or Trump?
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What is the current status of the Iran‑U.S. cease‑fire and why does it matter?
Hi everybody, John Don van here, and a note before the debate you're about to listen to, it looks at the status of the war in Iran. Now, in the past few days, what had been a tenuous ceasefire now seems to be clearly non-functional. Hostilities have resumed, although not to the level seen previously. I am mentioning this because a few days ago on July 7th, when the ceasefire was still holding, we taped a debate on the question of who won the war. Though this is an ever-evolving situation, obviously, and perhaps perhaps because it is, the arguments made when we recorded still stand. I just wanted you to have that perspective. You know, in writing about war, poets and historians and the news media have tended to use a list of word pairings that get used over and over again, such as overwhelming force, hasty retreat, ignominious defeat, decisive victory.
When the US and Israel launched their attack on Iran in February, decisive victory is what was promised. Now, months later, does the outcome such as it stands live up to that promise? Well, the answer depends in part on how you define victory, and how you keep score, and what remains unresolved, and also whom you believe. All we know is that the Trump administration and the clerics who will rule Iran are both declaring themselves the victors. So which is it? That's what we're going to find out. We are posing this question who won the Iran War, Trump or Tehran? And we're bringing on two subject matter experts, people who have really thought about this and have strong opinions, and who will be taking opposing views as we see them argue it out.
So let me introduce our debaters. Iran in answer to the question, who won the Iran War? We have Suzanne Maloney, who is vice president and director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution. Suzanne, welcome. You were, in fact, I've learned, one of the first Americans to go and study in Tehran after the nineteen seventy nine revolution. It must have been just fascinating.
It was absolutely extraordinary and it has really um meant uh that I have uh made my career around Iran as a result of that formative experience.
Interesting. All right, let's meet your opponent here to argue that Trump won. I want to welcome Matthew Kronig, who is vice president for geostrategy and fellows and senior director of the Atlanta Council Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. Matthew, welcome to the program.
Thanks. It's great to be here.
I I want to note that Politico once called you one of Washington's most prolific foreign policy wonks. And wonk can be uh either a great compliment or a very Washington insult. So how did you take it?
I I I took it more as a a compliment. Uh I think wonk is a uh a compliment in Washington uh American University, one of the top universities here, promises that they'll train future wonks.
And wonks do know how to have fun, and so one of those ways is to debate. So let's get to our opening statements. We want to give each of you a chance to tell us why you're taking the position you are. You'll have up to four minutes to explain why. Suzanne, you're up first. You're arguing that Tehran won the Iran War. Here's your chance, please, to tell us why.
Beginning on February twenty eighth, massive US and Israeli airstrikes eliminated Iran's long ruling supreme leader, along with an entire echelon of senior Iranian officials. Quickly secured air superiority over the country and exacted punishing blows on its nuclear program, ballistic missile capabilities, Navy, and Air Force. Despite these impressive operational achievements, Iran's deeply institutionalized ruling system mounted a stunningly effective retaliation, targeting regional economic and energy infrastructure and transit. And jeopardizing the security of its neighbors and the global economy, the Trump administration quickly found itself pinned down in a conflict where Washington could not prevail at an acceptable cost or timeline, forcing Trump to offer massive concessions to a third rate terrorist state in order to end the war.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What is the current status of the Iran‑U.S. cease‑fire and why does it matter?
0:01–8:50
2
How does Suzanne Maloney argue that Tehran won the Iran war?
8:50–17:18
3
What evidence does Matthew Kroenig give that Trump’s strategy was a victory?
17:18–27:13
4
Why do experts say the Strait of Hormuz is a new leverage point for Iran?
27:13–36:28
5
How are regional powers (Russia, China, Gulf states) reacting to the conflict?
36:28–45:13
6
What are the strategic costs to the United States after the war?
45:13–50:24