The sicko who invented prediction markets
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What are Kalshi and Polymarket and how do listeners use them?
Charlie, to start things off, where are you doing your insider trading right now? Is it Kalshi? Are you a Polymarket? Do you like the cryptocurrency aspects of Polymarket? Or do you want to insider trade with cash?
I'm fully decentralized, so. So it's Polymarket. Yeah, Polymarket with a couple of offshore accounts linked to it. Sure. Yeah. You can read more about that in my Discord. It's like $299 a month to subscribe, but you get a lot of alpha out of it.
That makes sense, because I'm one of the Clippers in your Discord for your show. and you're always paying us in like doge or like uh tether recently it seemed like maybe something's wrong i don't know but some solana yeah yeah
Welcome back to the show, Charlie. How have you been?
Thank you.
When was the last time you were on the show? I think you're in the three-timer club now.
I was going to say, I think now, I think one more and I'm officially the host of the show. You can have me. I'm leaving you of duties, which is pretty sweet. I don't know, I think, was it last time, January 6th?
No, last time was Dave Portnoy. Right, Dave Portnoy. I forgot we even did an episode.
President-elect Dave Portnoy.
Yeah, Swampscott's finest. Today we're talking about a different kind of sicko. But first, let me intro the show properly. My name is Ryan Broderick. With me as always is Grant Irving. And this is Panic World, a show about how the internet warps our minds, our culture, and eventually reality. And joining us, I guess you are actually the second person to become a three-timer. So you're not the first. Who's the other? I don't know. that's in my notes for the show today it's claude who who is the first three-timer grant it's juniper oh juniper yeah that makes sense yeah okay well that's fine i could have phrased it nicer but i didn't want charlie to like leave here gloating you know Yeah, Juniper, the much better guest.
Yes, she is the first three-timer. But Charlie Waters, welcome. How are you? Thank you.
I'm good. I'm good. I'm ready to try to figure out how to quit my day job and really make some money. I think it's time.
I think journalism can only go so far into reflecting reality. And actually, you should just fully go into the market. I think the market is really the only way to report on what's happening.
I agree. You know, we're utilizing the commons to get to a better understanding of truth. So I think that's what this is all about.
In all seriousness, have you used one of these platforms, Kalshi, Polymarket, some other weird one? Have you used any of them before?
Yeah, I mean, I did to sort of figure out What's up with it? So I made like a couple of like really stupid bets on on golf stuff on Kelsey and just to sort of see I'm not a big better. I like to win things and I find it's just a great way to lose money. I don't know. I don't have a lot of money to begin with, so I'm trying not to flush it down the toilet and let these very strange companies take 10%, 15%, 20%.
Yeah, I've said this before. I don't have the gambling brain shape. It just doesn't work with me very well. I have used... like crypto style wallets and stuff, and I've messed around with them and I've and I've met a lot of people, you know, over the last few years at crypto events who are building what, you know, basically all got replaced by Polymarket. So like I was sort of I sort of knew the prediction market stuff was coming as of like two or three or four years ago. But I have never actually met anyone that's using them either and openly talking about it, which I also think is interesting.
I, I will say the one thing I do like to do is go into the comments, like find a good market and then go into the comments and especially a good market that has just resolved and look at the different people. Every single time you go in, there are a number of people who are like, wait, that's what we were betting on. Like, are you serious? And it's like, I just lost a thousand dollars. I had no idea. That's what it meant when we were resolving to yes. Like they literally thought they were betting on the opposite thing.
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