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Pod Save the World

Iranian Regime Massacres Protesters, Will Trump Respond?

14 Jan 2026

Transcription

Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

0.031 - 18.208 Tommy Vitor

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Thank you.

103.171 - 110.921 Ben Rhodes

Welcome back to Pod Save the World. I'm Tommy Vitor. I'm Ben Rhodes. I love the NFL playoffs so much, Ben. Did you watch the Bears game?

111.402 - 114.186 Unknown

I did. I did. I was going to say, you like it because your team won.

Chapter 2: What are the historic protests happening in Iran?

537.5 - 540.923 Ben Rhodes

Other groups put it between 500 and 6000 sort of confirmed cases.

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541.023 - 545.367 Unknown

But either way, I think the government itself said 2000. Jesus Christ.

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545.387 - 563.223 Ben Rhodes

I mean, either way, it's horrible. Tens of thousands of people are being arrested and we'll never know that number. So also, you know, sources in Iran have told news outlets like The Times or the BBC that basically security forces are firing birdshot like pellet guns at protesters to blind them. And the ones that fight back, they're just gunning down with machine guns.

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563.583 - 573.057 Ben Rhodes

And to your point, Iranian state TV released a video from a morgue in Tehran where you can see just dozens of bodies. Do you get why they would do that? Is it like a threat?

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573.337 - 580.168 Unknown

I think a bit of it is a threat, yeah. It's to show that we're not backing down and we're encouraging you to not protest.

580.809 - 586.197 Ben Rhodes

I saw one person speculate that they were trying to suggest that outside agitators are responsible for this.

586.217 - 588.02 Unknown

Well, they'll say that no matter what, for sure, yeah.

588.281 - 605.199 Ben Rhodes

Anyway, yeah, it's awful. But hospitals are overrun, they're running out of supplies, it's awful. So there's also like... For what it's worth, I mean, the protesters are not peaceful. They're getting very violent, too. I saw a clip. Do you see this of this group beating a cop to death, and they light the police officer on fire and burn them alive?

605.5 - 624.704 Ben Rhodes

So President Trump had previously assured protesters in Iran, that the U.S. would, quote, rescue them if there was a crackdown. He has yet to act. Trump has said he might meet with Iranians to negotiate. That seems to have delayed things. Axios reported that Trump's golf buddy turned envoy for everything, Steve Woodcoff, has been in touch with Iran's foreign minister.

Chapter 3: What are the implications of regime change in Venezuela?

639.357 - 664.318 Donald Trump

And by the way, to all Iranian patriots, keep protesting. Take over your institutions if possible. And save the name of the killers and the abusers that are abusing you. You're being very badly abused. If the numbers are right now, I hear five different sets of numbers. I hear numbers. Look, one death is too much. But I hear much lower numbers and then I hear much higher numbers.

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664.418 - 675.317 Donald Trump

But I say save their names because they'll pay a very big price. And I've canceled all meetings with the Iranian officials until the senseless killing of protesters stops.

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Chapter 4: How is oil production affecting Venezuela's political landscape?

676.6 - 688.095 Donald Trump

And all I say to them is help is on its way. You saw that I put tariffs on anybody doing business with Iran. Just went into effect today. And I say make Iran great again.

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688.576 - 692.46 Ben Rhodes

Okay, so... I'm sure that'll do it. Yeah. Not good.

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Chapter 5: What are Trump's threats regarding military action in Mexico?

692.54 - 700.769 Ben Rhodes

Okay, so Trump is going to meet with his team to review options today. Ben, let's try to figure out what those could be. A bunch of news outlets have tried to report out what the menu could look like.

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701.29 - 713.323 Ben Rhodes

They suggest it could range from finding ways to boost anti-government voices online, some sort of cyber attack on Iran's military and intelligence services, more sanctions, and then all the way to direct military strikes on the regime online.

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713.303 - 730.596 Ben Rhodes

The Wall Street Journal said Trump is leaning towards airstrikes, but his options may be more limited because he redeployed the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier from the Middle East to the Caribbean. It sucks when you're trying to do a regime change and you just can't find a aircraft carrier line around. But so still, we can hit them with the U.S.

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731.377 - 748.136 Ben Rhodes

long range bombers that can basically fly out of anywhere, as we saw yesterday. um, last year, especially given that Israel took out their air defenses. So Ben Trump is, he's painted himself into a corner here. He has to do something. The question is what, um, the nuclear site bombs were like, that was a discreet target. There was a clear objective.

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Chapter 6: How is the G7 adapting to Trump's birthday plans?

748.557 - 760.388 Ben Rhodes

It's not clear to me what airstrikes stop a government crackdown on protesters, but like, what are you looking for and what do you think might be effective? And then I guess, how worried are you about Iran threatening to respond?

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761.988 - 775.27 Unknown

Well, we should just start by saying this is just a horrible situation for the Iranian people. And, you know, what you're seeing is we've had different protests over the years, right? So we had the Women Live Freedom protests in 2022.

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776.512 - 796.277 Unknown

We've had a variety of other protests every kind of two or three years, all the way back to 2009 when you had, you know, kind of systematic protests over an election that appeared to be stolen, I think was stolen. What's different about this is there's basically every reason for people to be protesting. It's not one thing. So at core, it's that the economy is in the total shitter.

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796.818 - 816.075 Unknown

The Iranian currency is worth like nothing. And there's a sense among people that that's because the incompetence of the regime, the lack of prioritization of the economy by the regime because they're so focused on foreign policy, the corruption of the regime. And they've just kind of been around too long. They have no answers for people.

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816.055 - 839.211 Unknown

And so you're not just seeing, you know, sometimes in the past, these protest movements have been kind of younger, middle class, urban Iranians in Tehran. This is everywhere. This is like young people, old people, middle class people, working class people. And it's also very directly about changing the regime. Like past protests have often been about, you know, sometimes been about, you know,

839.191 - 859.477 Unknown

Last time, get rid of the morality police, let women be uncovered. And yes, some of that was about getting rid of the regime, but some of that was about a more specific objective. These are broad. They cross societal and they're about regime change. And that's huge. And that shows how much this regime is on the back foot and how much Iranians are willing to risk.

859.497 - 868.508 Unknown

I mean, the fact that they're willing to go out there and risk their lives shows you the depth of frustration and anger that they feel about this kind of shitty regime that they've been living under for decades. A long time now.

869.049 - 883.693 Unknown

In terms of how the regime can kind of fight back, you know, the Iranian regime, you know, we've lived through some crackdowns when we're in government, seen them since, you know, they have like a variety of different forces, right? There's like police.

883.673 - 905.16 Unknown

Then there are the Basij who are kind of these like pro-regime militia type guys who are usually not in uniform and go out and kind of rough people up or kill people even. Then you have the IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, that's kind of like the elite security force in Iran that kind of comes in as the backstop. Then there's the army.

Chapter 7: What insights does Jason Rezaian provide on the Iranian protests?

1498.414 - 1523.121 Jason Rezaian

The best way to ensure that there will be less people killed in Iran is to intervene sooner, so this regime finally collapses. I've stepped in to lead this transition, and I have a plan for that. I have a whole host of people who are helping us—lawyers, jurists, economic experts. So we're not just talking about a regime that needs to go. We're also talking about what's the alternative.

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1523.101 - 1546.486 Jason Rezaian

And in terms of the political alternative, it's a constitutional process. The interim government will be able to organize free elections so the people can send their representative in a constituent assembly to ultimately debate what ought to be in the final form that a future democratic secular system in Iran should take. I'm not here to advocate for a republic or a monarchy.

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1547.066 - 1552.652 Jason Rezaian

I'm here to be the honest broker above the fray in complete neutrality.

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1552.632 - 1566.518 Ben Rhodes

So like, look, the ass kissing is annoying. The shot at Obama is annoying, but whatever. That's like, how do you talk to Trump? I don't care. But the thing that's interesting here, Ben, is like in the past when I've talked to Iranians about Pahlavi, they say this guy's a clown. Like no one cares what he thinks in Iran.

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1566.538 - 1567.2 Unknown

Some rich guy in America.

1567.22 - 1579.822 Ben Rhodes

Like no one wants him back leading Iran. But, you know, last week Pahlavi called on protesters to demonstrate at specific times. And it seems like... maybe hundreds of thousands of them listened, or at least he timed those calls well because he knew people were going to go out.

1580.362 - 1595.987 Ben Rhodes

I've also heard an analyst suggest that these were mostly young people who don't know about the Shah, don't know the history, don't know the corruption or the human rights abuses. But Axios reported that Steve Witkoff secretly met with Pahlavi over the weekend. Later in my conversation with Jason, you'll hear

1595.967 - 1612.189 Ben Rhodes

that Jason is skeptical that Pahlavi or anyone outside of Iran could assume the mantle and take over. But in 1979, Ayatollah Khomeini was in exile in France before he returned to Iran to lead the Iranian revolution. So I guess there's some precedent here, but I don't know what to think.

1613.25 - 1633.506 Unknown

I think that the couple of things that bother me are, and look, this time I'll be self-critical, right? When Muammar Gaddafi was ousted in Libya during the Obama administration, There was a actually very capable group of exiles who didn't have the baggage even of being the Shah's son.

Chapter 8: How has the Iranian regime responded to the protests?

1855.727 - 1874.821 Ben Rhodes

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, I swear regime change. I don't know. We'll find out. Last thing, Ben, Trump clearly keeps saying he wants to deal. I'm not really sure what kind of deal would be welcomed right now, right? Like obviously a deal that limits or ends Iran's nuclear ambitions, gets rid of its ballistic missile program, that would make the US happy and Israel happy.

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1875.101 - 1893.771 Ben Rhodes

But protesters might view any deal in this moment as selling them out, right? Because they want regime change, right? And then on Monday, Iran's foreign minister said, we are not looking for war, but we are prepared for war. even more prepared than the previous war. We also ready for negotiations, but negotiations that are fair with equal rights and mutual respect. So, like, we'll find out.

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1893.851 - 1913.867 Ben Rhodes

I mean, look, the last time the U.S. bombed Iran, the response was for show. Like, literally, they called ahead and they said, hey, we're going to shoot missiles at you. Prepare yourself. They did hit some Israeli targets and did some significant damage and killed some people. Maybe if, you know, it's an existential threat, the response is stronger. We'll find out.

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1913.887 - 1924.307 Unknown

That's right. I thought the last ones were messaging. Right. So the Qatar, they called them. But I think the message was, if it's existential for us, we're just going to start firing at U.S. bases, even if they're in Gulf countries. Yeah. Yeah.

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1924.287 - 1944.945 Unknown

And similar with Israel, they came pretty close to overwhelming the missile defense and hitting much targets, but they wanted to preserve a bunch of ballistic missiles. If they just empty the kit, you know, they could do a lot of damage in Israel too. So a drowning man is, you know, dangerous. And if they are absolutely existentially threatened—

1944.925 - 1960.808 Unknown

They could – the things that they were kind of measured about, they could kind of – whether that's like attacking our embassy in Iraq, bombing Israel with more ballistic missiles, bombing bases and terrorism. Like we could see a lot of that.

1969.546 - 1985.007 Tommy Vitor

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1985.408 - 1998.726 Tommy Vitor

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