Bonds Are Going Haywire Again — Howard Marks Explains Why
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Money markets mess. If money is evil, then that building is hell. Show those up! Sell, sell!
Welcome to Prof. Markets. I'm Ed Elson. It is September 24th. Let's check in on yesterday's Market Vitals. The major indices declined as US Treasuries sold off. More on that in a second. Brent Crude spiked above $103, adding pressure to the sell-off. And on Calci, the odds of another rate hike next month rose to 66%, and the odds of a third hike later in the year rose to 34%. Okay, what's happening? The bond market continues to flash bright red. Yesterday, the 10-year Treasury yield ripped above 5.1% to a fresh 19-year high. The 30-year yield returned to levels not seen since 2004, and even the five-year yield breached 5%, the highest since before the financial crisis. That was despite the Treasury's attempt to bring yields down with a historic buyback program weeks ago.
Treasury Secretary Scott Besant bought $6 billion worth of long-dated bonds and still yields went up.
What is driving the recent sell‑off in U.S. Treasury yields?
And Bessent's second buyback operation, another $6 billion, is set to happen today. Well, our guest today says that the rise in yields is no surprise. In his new memo, legendary Investor Howard Marks argues that the Treasury's response was a cosmetic fix to America's economic problems. He says that buybacks will not solve a situation that is structurally unsound. He joins us today on CraftG Markets to explain why. Howard Marks, thank you so much for joining us. Looking at the yields, the 10-year is back at its highest levels in years. 30 year close to 5.4% highest levels in decades. The Treasury has tried multiple times to stop the bleeding here. It isn't working. What is going on? What is the bond market telling us right now?
We never know exactly what the market is saying. The market doesn't tell you what it's saying. It only does something and you can uh infer from what's going on around you what the causes might be. When rates go up, what it other than when government puts them up, what it basically means is that People What more yield? From a given investment. Now, why might they want more yield? The obvious reason is because if they think if they lend you $100 today, when you pay them back in 30 years, it'll buy less. And so they need a purchasing power protection or inflation premium in the yield uh to to uh compensate for that. And that's the common. The other reason that yields go up is because they think that the proposition has become riskier.
So if they lend you a hundred dollars today, the probability that they get a hundred dollars back in thirty years it may be a little less. So some risk. Um another reason that yields go up is because there's a lot of demand for capital. And so a given use of capital has to compete with all the other uses to to attract it. So, you know, yields on on investment X go up to make sure that it goes to X rather than Y. So there are lots of different reasons. And you know, as I said in the memo, I think the main reasons. why rates are going up is 'cause number one, inflation is stubborn. And it has stubbornly been above the Fed's two percent target. uh for for uh you know for the last uh well five years and You know, while it has come down from nine and a half, it went down to like two point seven.
The target is two. They could never get it to two. And now with the impact of the Ukraine war raising oil prices, it's it's up to three point four or something like that. Um so that's I think that's the main reason people want uh uh inflation protection if they're gonna lend you money for a long time. I but there's also concern, you know, simultaneously, uh, you know, the US came out with a number of forty trillion for its national debt. And there's concern about the impact w the meaning of that, I would say profligacy. W why are we spending two trillion dollars a year more than we're taking in in taxes? Why are we running a deficit that approaches two trillion dollars? Um, you know, if you had a brother in law who every year uh or every month spent more than his salary.
and put it on the credit card, you might look askance.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:05–1:21
2
What is driving the recent sell‑off in U.S. Treasury yields?
1:21–7:07
3
Why does Howard Marks say the Treasury’s buy‑back program is only a cosmetic fix?
7:07–11:19
4
What are the three main reasons yields have risen so sharply?
11:19–29:52
5
How have bond‑market investors’ attitudes changed this summer?
29:52–32:45
Speakers
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