Oil Expert: We Can’t Predict Iran Anymore
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Welcome to Profiteer Markets. I'm Ed Elson. It is September 23rd. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The Nasdaq climbed to another record high, boosted by a rally in chip stocks. Meanwhile, the S&P was flat, while the Dow declined. Brent crude was volatile. More on that in a second. And finally, the yield on 10-year treasuries was flat for the day. Okay. What's happening? Oil tumbled to its lowest point in two weeks yesterday morning, but by midday, those gains were mostly erased. Early on Tuesday, Brent crude had fallen 3% to around $97. That was on hopes that Saudi Arabia's crucial east-west pipeline would restart this week. and that there might be diplomatic progress at the United Nations General Assembly.
But just a few hours later, hope sank and oil prices climbed back above $100 following President Trump's speech at the UN. He said that he had a big decision to make about whether to strike a deal with Iran or to, quote, annihilate it. He also said that a deal might be made after the midterms. Then during a meeting in the afternoon, Trump claimed that his team just concluded a, quote, very good meeting with Iran's representatives. Brent crude settled the day at $98 a barrel. So lots to unpack in the world of oil. Today, we're speaking with Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kepler. Matt, great to see you again. I was going to begin with a question about what is going on in Saudi Arabia, but then Trump goes to the UN and he suggests annihilating Iran.
And I think that matters, but I'm not sure. What do you think? Oh,
gosh. Well, that's the thing. We came into Tuesday and there was the bearish influence of both Trump talking about sort of tentative diplomacy. And you had the same signaling from Iran as well. And so you don't know if they're both playing games or what, right? Yeah, I think Trump has come to terms with the fact that we're probably in a holding pattern and nothing's going to happen till after the midterm elections here. Iran, on the other hand, is perhaps chancing its luck and saying, yeah, sure, we could open the strait in seven days. All you have to do is remove your blockade and unfreeze all our assets. And so that's the path that we're faced with here. And so after initial positivity and the move lower on that news, really, we're just back in a holding pattern here, Ed.
And so perhaps the Saudi stuff has more relevance in
this case. Is there any evidence that the relationship with Iran or the progress towards some form of a deal or some sort of peace talks, that it's moved in any substantive direction? Like, I mean, he says that he's open to meeting with the president, but then he also suggests annihilating the nation. I mean, is it better or worse, or is it just we have no idea?
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:01–9:16
2
What were yesterday’s market vitals and how did oil prices move?
9:16–17:09
3
How are Trump’s UN remarks affecting oil markets and Iran predictions?
17:09–25:03
4
Why did JP Morgan abandon its oil‑market baseline forecast?
25:03–31:55
5
What is the risk‑premium story behind rising diesel prices?
31:55–33:48
Speakers
4 identifiedMore from Prof G Markets
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