Chapter 1: What are the implications of Trump's new tariffs on Greenland?
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That last joke is actually true. Look it up. It is January 20th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. U.S. markets were closed for MLK Day. Still, S&P and Nasdaq futures sank 1% as tensions flared over Greenland. More on that in a moment. Meanwhile, the dollar slid, Bitcoin declined, and gold hit a record high. Okay, what else is happening?
President Trump has upped the stakes for a Greenland acquisition, presenting Europe with a new tariff ultimatum. Over the weekend, he announced 10% tariffs on eight European countries starting February 1st. According to Trump's Truth Social post, the rate will rise to 25% in June unless there is a deal reached for what he called, quote, "'the complete and total purchase of Greenland.'"
The targeted countries are putting up a united front, warning this could spark, quote, a dangerous downward spiral. French President Emmanuel Macron is urging the EU to use its trade bazooka, more formally known as the anti-coercion instrument, which could lock the US out of European markets.
Meanwhile, Danish officials are skipping the World Economic Forum in Davos in protest, and Denmark deployed additional troops to Greenland on Monday. European stocks had their worst day in two months yesterday, and gold and silver hit fresh all-time highs, another signal that investors are searching for safety.
So, here to discuss what is at stake with potentially another trade war between America and Europe, we are joined by pod favourite Robert Armstrong. U.S. financial commentator for the Financial Times and author of the Unhedged newsletter. Rob, welcome back once again to Profiteer Markets. Good to see you at the end of a very strange weekend. A very strange weekend indeed.
We want to jump right into it. So we've got 10% going up to 25% tariffs on eight European countries that have expressed solidarity with Greenland. We've got Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland. Let's just start with your initial reactions, Rob.
First reaction, is it going to actually happen? As far as I know, the threatened tariffs on any country that trades with Iran have not happened. We had a tweet from the president that was happening. It then just drifted to wherever presidential tweets go when they're not with us. So... So, you know, the rhetoric is pretty strong. There was the bizarre text to the leader of Norway.
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Chapter 2: How are European markets reacting to Trump's tariff threats?
And some countries get the taco treatment and some countries get the Fafo treatment. And his point was that the weak... get FAFO, and the strong get taco. In other words, countries that put up a little bit of resistance, Brazil, China, Russia to a degree, actually taco is the most common outcome.
If countries show weakness or are too weak to protect themselves, like Venezuela, they see bold Trump. They see FAFO Trump. So we might ask at this point, Is Europe going to be strong in response, in which case we might expect TACO and the situation to stabilize and cool off?
Or do they get into a characteristically European mode of tripping over their own feet and their own internal political squabbles, come with a weak and divided response, in which case they get FAFO? Right? The hard side of Trump. So I'm not sure that's true, but I think it's a kind of intriguing way to think about it. Right. Right.
And I would bet that you are right, that this is a situation where Trump will be prepared to back off, but only if... Europe shows willingness to up the ante.
Yes. And by the way, it seems that they do, or at least... Yes. I mean, that's what we're hearing with this talk of a trade bazooka, which I've never heard of. Right. This is what Emmanuel Macron has been suggesting, that they use the anti-coercion instrument. They call it the trade bazooka. I love that.
Yeah, I love the anti-coercion instrument. It's like a special axe they keep in a box and
From my understanding, it's basically just some export controls. I'm not sure exactly what makes it a bazooka versus any other trade weapon.
It just means Europe is committed to a lot of global principles and of kind of fair and reciprocal trading with its trade partners. And I think basically what the anti-coercion instrument does is release them from those commitments. So they are, it basically says, it's a situation where you've been nasty to us and we can be nasty right back.
Even if it is a taco, I think it probably is. It does seem that there is a vibe change that has occurred, and that is the post and the statement itself is just offensive to Europe. Yes. So, you know, that's why Macron is reacting the way he has, and you've seen people like Keir Starmer speaking out, and basically any EU leader is coming out and saying, hey, this is unacceptable.
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Chapter 3: What is the potential impact of Trump's tariffs on U.S.-EU relations?
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