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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Today's number, 100,000. I'm already laughing. Today's number, $100,000. That's how much a German terrorist sued New York City chain Los Tacos. Number one, two physical injuries from spicy salsa. Ed, how did Hitler rise to power? How? He brat out the worst in people. I don't know why I find that so funny. Get it? Bratwurst? He brat out the worst in people.
You probably got to say he brat out the worst in people to sort of get it. Bratwurst? Bratwurst?
Listen to me. Markets are bigger than us. What you have here is a structural change in the world distribution. Cash is trash. Stocks look pretty attractive. Something's going to break. Forget about it.
Okay, true story. I just told a very funny but very dirty joke, and the team wouldn't let me do it because we have Bill Gurley, a famous venture capitalist, on. So fucking VCs continue to ruin my life. Anyways, what are you up to?
Just got back from Vegas. Oh, how was that? Guy's weekend. Guy's weekend, bachelor party. It was awesome. We did a lot of gambling, played a lot of blackjack, played a lot of craps, lost a lot of money. did what we're supposed to do. We stayed at the Wynn. We stayed at the Encore. We had dinner at Zuma.
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Chapter 2: How can young people position themselves for success in the age of AI?
And so we've really had a fall off in the number of companies that are actually public. Partially, you could blame that on just a bureaucratic creep, and I would say kind of a legal creep, right? The number of weird derivative lawsuits that are allowed are part of what causes it to be expensive to be public. There was another thing that happened.
There used to be a shareholder threshold that would force you to go public, and there were a number of companies that that literally had to file as a result of that mechanism. That has been whittled away and taken down. And then I'd say more, if you're going to point the finger more directly, I would say the late-stage funds have come up with a pretty clever premise, which is if they can...
intercept those growth years that used to be in the public markets and keep it for themselves in an oligarchic kind of way there there's there's only a handful of these really really big funds then um then they get that growth they they get to steal that that economic upside maybe steals a strong word but but
And simultaneously with telling the founder you don't ever need to go public, they'll go around to the LP community, the endowments and foundations, and say, look, these companies are no longer going public. If you want exposure to those growth years, guess who you need to give money to? you know, me. And so it becomes self-reinforcing and that's what's been happening.
I also, one other thing that I think, the venture industry used to go through these periods and cycles where it would get reset and people would learn that you're taking too much risk and you'd get wiped out. From like 01 to 08, the number of venture capitalists got cut in half. I think we were headed towards a correction like that coming off the ZERP years, the zero interest rate period.
And right when it was about to be a correction, this AI wave took off and the money just flowed back in. So it's almost like I felt like we missed a bit of a correction and there's just risk seeking dollars everywhere. The thing that would cause it to stop is if somehow the money ran out. There was fear of a endowment tax causing a liquidity crisis at some of the foundations, Harvard and
Yale, I think, got into the secondary market last year. And so there was a sign that, oh, wait, this could cause a liquidity crunch. And I think there's a reasonable argument, by the way, that both the commercial real estate, the venture capital, and the PE marks are all too high at all of those endowments and foundations. But that's a whole other story.
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Chapter 3: What career advice does Bill Gurley offer to young professionals?
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We're back with ProfgMarkets. What do you think would happen? I mean, how would a correction play out? Are you worried that we are maybe about to face one in this market? I know there are concerns in the private credit markets. There were seemingly concerns about AI that there was a bubble. Now that's slightly dissipated. We're seeing the value. We're seeing these incredible tools.
What are your thoughts on the possibility of a correction? What would it look like?
I mean, I always give credit to Carletta Perez, who wrote this book that says that bubbles follow waves that are real. So I disagree with this idea that, oh, it's either a bubble or it's real. Because when you say, oh, there's a bubble, people go, oh, you don't believe in AI. No, the fact that it's real... causes people to get rich quick.
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Chapter 4: How does AI impact the job market and career paths?
And so the difference from peak to trough every day is about 4x. And so it's pretty easy for a Waymo to compete in the first 25% of a market. As you try and go up, you'd have to ask yourself questions about how active you want and utilization rates that you want because you can't really build a fleet to peak, if you understand what I'm saying. And so, you know, we'll see.
I mean, obviously, what DAR is doing is running out and partnering with every AV vendor possible he can. The approach that I had been pushing for, which didn't play out, but was one where you would actually embrace open source ideals around the autonomous stack is in as many places as you can. Because if If that piece of the stack is more of a commodity, then the network will win.
There's just no doubt about it.
So distinctive professional advice around what industry to go into. What advice would you have for a lot of young people listening to the show, especially young men? What advice, maybe on a more personal level, would you offer to your 25-year-old self?
Well, I have a hard time not reflecting on the book that I've been talking so much about in this window. And I've come to believe that if you were pointed at something that you just have a remarkable obsession with—and other people have made that statement. Paul Graham has this statement about disinterested obsession— You're going to have all this energy to excel yourself past everyone else.
And it may be that that's impossible for some, like they just don't have that thing that they're most obsessed with. But I think your job security... is higher being differentiated and being a constant learner in almost any field than you are picking a field because you think the field is safe if you enter that field and you're ambivalent about whether you're making yourself better or not.
Bill, do you have children?
Yes.
Any thoughts or any advice to young dads?
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