Why It's Hard to Know What Comes Next in Iran
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What recent events have escalated the crisis in Iran?
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What is the significance of Iran's transitional council?
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Is there a potential off-ramp to avoid wider conflict in the Middle East?
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Welcome to Raging Modernists. I'm Scott Galloway. And I'm Jessica Tarliff. If you haven't already, please make sure to subscribe to our YouTube page to get up-to-date coverage on everything happening. Today, we're joined again by retired U.S. Navy Admiral James Tavridis to help us make sense of developments in the Middle East over the weekend. Welcome back to the show, Admiral. Good to be with you. So I can't imagine how in demand you are, so we'll bust right into it. Here's where things stand. Iran's supreme leader is now dead following U.S.-Israeli strikes. Tehran has installed a transitional council. and is vowing fierce retaliation.
What are the possible scenarios for Iran's future after the Supreme Leader's death?
At least three U.S. troops have been killed. Israel is hitting the heart of Tehran while Iranian missiles target U.S. bases and Gulf allies. Oil flows are disrupted and airspace is closing. Admiral, from a military standpoint, is there a clear off-ramp here, or are we looking at the very early stages of a longer war in the Middle East? I'll answer that in one moment. But you said from a military standpoint, I just ask everybody, hold those service men and women in your hearts wherever you are on the political spectrum and whatever you think about this operation. Scott, I'd say the future is bright. Pretty hard to predict at the moment, but I'll give you three scenarios very quickly. First one is the happy scenario.
This would be where the people of Iran rise up and overthrow the mullahs, the Revolutionary Guard. I think, sadly, that's a 30% chance at best, but not impossible. The other 70% breaks into two scenarios. One, you can kind of think of it as Iran 3.0. If Iran 1.0 was under the Shah and now Iran 2.0 has been under the mullahs, could there be an Iran 3.0 that includes some remnants of this government but that behaves in a more moderate, sensible fashion? And then there's kind of the dark end of the spectrum in that 70% tranche, and that's that team Moolah, Ayatollah, toughs it out, takes the bombing, no boots on the ground are coming, and they repress the populace even worse. So there's a snapshot of the future as I see it.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What recent events have escalated the crisis in Iran?
0:00–0:56
2
What is the significance of Iran's transitional council?
0:56–1:41
3
Is there a potential off-ramp to avoid wider conflict in the Middle East?
1:41–2:48
4
What are the possible scenarios for Iran's future after the Supreme Leader's death?
2:48–5:03
5
How might the U.S. military strategy evolve in response to Iran?
5:03–7:23
6
What are the implications of U.S. actions for oil prices and the global economy?
7:23–9:04
7
How does the situation in Iran affect U.S.-China relations?
9:04–11:21
8
What diplomatic solutions could be considered for Iran moving forward?
11:21–29:35
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