How many home runs can we expect from Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong?
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What surprise announcement did the Cubs make about Pete Crow-Armstrong?
I did not expect, Russ, that was part of the surprise for me, was the Cubs not only reporting this extension close to the beginning of the season with the home opener, the season opener being two days from now. Peker Armstrong's birthday is tomorrow. This is a heck of a birthday present. For them to do this, I feel like the timing of it was unexpected.
I think when you're talking about extensions in Major League Baseball, usually the window to do it is between the start of spring training and opening day. So you're at the tail end of that window, but think about where we were a year ago, where those conversations were starting to bubble up of, could the Cubs extend Pete Crow Armstrong? And remember last year, I'm like, you don't really have to. And at that point, Pete hadn't proved anything yet, right? We still had questions about the bat. Could he be an everyday player where you're like, okay, this guy is a player that you build around for a long time. And then he has the first half that he has. And it's like, okay, for Pete, you're probably like, all right, let's hold off.
Like, let's see, let's keep cooking and see how the season goes. And then we see the second half where the numbers dropped off dramatically. And then going into this year, The Cubs, big expectations, but you expect Pete and they expect Pete to be a big part of it. And you're like, you know what? If we're going all in or the Cubs version of all in and you make the moves they made and bring Bregman in and you look at their roster after the 2026 season where they have money freed up and you're like, okay.
How did Pete Crow-Armstrong's performance impact his contract extension?
We believe in Pete and his talents, and we believe that he's a guy at a premier position that we can have locked in for a long time and maybe have some value if we do this now. Maybe this is the right time to do it.
And go ahead. No, I was going to say, even as for the numbers, which are glaring from one half to the next. Yeah. Obviously, it's a projection by the Cubs that he's more of what he was in the first half and the second half. But what do you think he is? Is he a 30 home run guy? Is he a 20 home run guy? Is he an under 20 home run guy? That's such a great question.
I don't know the answer to it. And I think, if I had to take my best guess, I think PCA is an 800 OPS guy. with a premier glove in center field, which I think makes you an all-star. Yeah. Right? So if you're saying he's an all-star caliber player... And we don't have the numbers yet, and there's reporting going on and people trying to figure that out. I think from conversations I've had in the last 12 hours, and for everybody out there, contract extensions are based on player comps. So when a team and an agency get together and say, hey, let's talk about an extension, you're talking about, okay, what are the comparables in the last, we'll call it, five years to this guy? And so I made a list because I knew I was going to talk with you guys about it.
Nice. For PCA, if you're talking about centerfielders or outfielders who are in his age range that have been extended in the last four years, you're talking about Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners, who signed a 12-year, $209 million extension.
Good call on Julio.
Then you have Jackson Merrill was 9 for 135. Roman Anthony, beginning of last season, was 8 for 130. And then Corbin Carroll was 8 for 111. Corbin Carroll, yeah. So if I'm thinking about what these numbers are going to be, Because Pete already has some service time and a lot of those guys didn't have a ton of service time, this might be a six or seven year type of extension where you buy out all the arbitration years and then you add on a couple of the first years of free agency. Probably in that 85 to 95 million dollar range with escalators that take it over 100 million, but it would fall in line with those deals.
I think you're right to bring up the escalators because I know Jackson Trio doesn't fit all the comps, but he was like, what didn't... Because that was before he ever made his debut. Yes. And I was thinking about him as part of this because division, young, offensive firepower, as we know.
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