RenMac

RenMac Off-Script: Can't Spell Allbirds w/o AI

17 Apr 2026

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac unpacks a market at new highs despite slowing growth, softening real consumption, and rising real rates acting as a drag beneath the surface. T...

RenMac Off-Script: Clarida Gives RenMac Clarity

10 Apr 2026

Contributed by Lukas

Former Fed Vice Chair Rich Clarida joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss the evolving Fed reaction function amid a potential transition to a War...

RenMac Off-Script: Good Friday & Dark Crosses

03 Apr 2026

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac breaks down a noisy March payrolls report that’s sending the wrong signal to the Fed, why markets may be misreading a slowing nominal economy...

RenMac Off-Script: Strait Talk*

27 Mar 2026

Contributed by Lukas

Former U.S. National Security official Michael Allen joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and why r...

RenMac Off-Script: Fear Factor(s)

20 Mar 2026

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac breaks down how quadruple witching and gamma dynamics could amplify near-term volatility as markets reprice a fragile macro environment. The te...

RenMac Off-Script: Escort No Shows & Stripper Wells

12 Mar 2026

Contributed by Lukas

Commodity Context founder Rory Johnston joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss escalating attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and why a prolonged dis...

RenMac Off-Script: Crude Awakening

06 Mar 2026

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac breaks down how the Iran conflict and rising oil prices are colliding with an already softening labor market and late-cycle market dynamics. Th...

RenMac Off-Script: Is The Bull Case &@#% !?

27 Feb 2026

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac breaks down why light tax refunds and narrow consumption growth are challenging the bullish economic narrative, even as AI capex continues to c...

RenMac Off-Script: Credit Concerns

20 Feb 2026

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac breaks down a market that’s still trending higher but losing momentum, as 2-year yields flirt with cycle lows and leadership rotates between ...

RenMac Off-Script: AI Bifurcation

13 Feb 2026

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac unpacks cooler inflation that keeps Fed cuts in play just as rising job anxiety and narrow hiring trends point to softer labor conditions benea...

RenMac Off-Script: Big Tech Faces Capex Conundrum

06 Feb 2026

Contributed by Lukas

CNBC’s Sara Eisen joins the RenMac Off-Script team to unpack why Big Tech’s AI spend is suddenly spooking markets, cracking momentum trades, and p...

RenMac Off-Script: Warsh Your Hands

30 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac unpacks the market fallout from Kevin Warsh emerging as the leading Fed chair candidate, the risks building in parabolic trades like gold and c...

RenMac Off-Script: Mysterious Market Reactions

23 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac digs into the growing political stakes around the Fed chair decision, why global yields—especially in Japan—are reshaping risk appetite, an...

RenMac Off-Script: Live From The Edge

16 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac recaps key takeaways from the firm’s 2026 Investor Forum, where stronger near-term data clashes with persistent weakness in housing and labor...

RenMac Off-Script: Big Oil: Pump for Trump

09 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac digs into a complicated January jobs report that dampens near-term rate-cut expectations as Dutta warns that unemployment risks are rising bene...

RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Hits the Slopes

02 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac kicks off 2026 with a wide-ranging discussion on the political reality around affordability and inflation, asset allocation myths, and what to ...

RenMac Off-Script: Rinaldo, Trade, Inflation & What Investors Missed in ’25. + What’s on Tap For ‘26

26 Dec 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac closes out 2025 by reflecting on the year’s biggest macro, market, and political surprises as the team looks ahead to early 2026. deGraaf exp...

RenMac Off-Script: Data Gone Wiles

19 Dec 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac breaks down a pivotal week where inflation cooled but global yields surged, suggesting the global bond markets—not just the U.S.— may be dr...

RenMac Off-Script: Fed Forecast Folly

12 Dec 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac welcomes WSJ Correspondent Nick Timiraos to unpack a pivotal week for monetary policy. The team digs into why the January jobs print will deter...

RenMac Off-Script: Why The Maestro Matters

05 Dec 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac breaks down why forecasting skill and real-world market instincts are critical for the Fed as it faces rising unemployment and a slowing econom...

RenMac Off-Script: Stewie Can't Be Fed Chair

28 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac kicks off Black Friday with a dive into consumer weakness as deGraaf outlines why seasonality is stacked against discretionary stocks, and what...

RenMac Off-Script: Tequila Soaked Nights

21 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac breaks down the market’s ugliest day since 2018 as deGraaf explains the rare “outside reversal” and what oversold signals in Bitcoin, NDX...

RenMac Off-Script: Trad(ing) Tensions

14 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac welcomes trade expert Kelly Ann Shaw to unpack a whirlwind week of global trade deals and she explains how the White House is using tariff reca...

RenMac Off-Script: A Probabilities Business

07 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses rising layoff signals and a Fed seemingly blind to softening labor data, Trump’s tariff maneuvering and how SCOTUS and Congress may...

RenMac Off-Script: Enough Bad to Be Good

31 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac welcomes CNBC’s Mike Santoli to unpack the market’s bullish resilience amid growing macro cracks. The team debates Powell’s “hawkish cu...

RenMac Off-Script: Bubble Bandwagons

24 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac breaks down a cooler-than-expected CPI print that cements the case for further Fed cuts and tempers tariff-fueled inflation fears. Neil dissect...

RenMac Off-Script: Shooting The Hostages

17 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac unpacks rising credit concerns as regional bankswobble and private equity stress builds, contrasting credit risk with last year’s duration sc...

RenMac Legends Podcast with Michelle Meyer

16 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Neil Dutta recently caught up with Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at the MasterCard Economics Institute. From her perch at MasterCard, Michelle has a...

RenMac Off-Script: The Golden Age

10 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac debates whether the Fed’s planned cuts can offset aslowing labor market and rising unemployment, as markets bet liquidity will keep equities ...

RenMac Off-Script: Shutdown Shenanigans

03 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac recaps client takeaways from London and Chicago,weighs the rising odds of a prolonged shutdown with Trump threatening permanent layoffs, and br...

RenMac Off-Script: Productivity Push or Problem

26 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac welcomes guest Sam Ro as the team unpacks Feddynamics as Trump appointees push aggressive cuts, rising odds of a government shutdown with threa...

RenMac Off-Script: Lack of Conviction

19 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the Fed’s risk-management cut and the political dynamics shaping Powell’s next moves, why the internal divisions on rate cuts mat...

RenMac Off-Script: Market Highs with Fed at Crossroads

12 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses how Fed politics and the upcoming FOMC decision are colliding with market expectations, why shutdown risks remain elevated despite ho...

RenMac Mailbag Question Introduce

09 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

They say some people have a face for radio.You? You've got a face for Off-Script.Send us your question via video or audio clip for the RenMac Mail...

RenMac Off-Script: Jobs Stumble as Gold Runs

05 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

In Today’s Report: RenMac unpacks a payrolls miss that highlights rising slack in the labor market, why consumer sentiment has flipped from bullish ...

RenMac Off-Script: China Breakout & Fed Shakeout

29 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

This week on RenMac Off-Script, Steve, Jeff, and Pavlik are joined by special guest Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The team digs into ...

RenMac Off-Script: We’ll Take Your Money, Not Your Two Cents

22 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac unpacks why Asian and frontier markets are rallying despite tariffs, how Trump’s industrial policy is morphing into “state capitalism,” t...

RenMac Off-Script: Money Illusion

15 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the latest in economic data, including how prices are flattering retail sales; the leap to get the FOMC to support a 50bp move; marke...

RenMac Off-Script: Trump/Powell Play Chicken

08 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

 RenMac breaks down the sharp rise in effective tariffs and who’s really paying for them, how firms may react to margin pressure with layoffs or pr...

RenMac Off-Script: Summer Soft-Patch

01 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac unpacks the sharp job revisions and weakening prime-age employment suggesting contraction, explores the Fed’s credibility crisis and potentia...

RenMac Off-Script: Don't Fist Fight the Fed

25 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac talks tariffs and who really bears the burden, Trump’s Fed site-visit and true objective, the narrow market excuse and why it’s more bearis...

RenMac Off-Script: Shutdown Surprise

18 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the Fed Chair race and Trump’s strategy, NVDA-led chip diplomacy with China and crypto legislation, markets ignoring rising shutdow...

RenMac Off-Script: Tariff Tangle Reignited

11 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac’s crew dives into recent tariff announcements, the unpriced probability of a U.S. Govt shutdown in October, Momentum vs Beta, Fed’s stance ...

RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls, PMIs & Poolside Predictions

04 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac dives into the July 4th weekend with a fresh look at the payroll surprise, Fed expectations, the global PMI paradox, and whether the market can...

RenMac Off-Script: The Apprentice: Fed Edition

27 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the case to be made for the next Fed chair, the latest on crude oil, the Middle East, July’s seasonal strength, the perceived disco...

RenMac Off-Script: Is Tehran About to Eat a TACO?

20 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac walks through this week’s Fed decision, Iran’s exit ramp, weakness in housing, the Byrd Bath, RMs 20% allocation to commodities, the overbo...

RenMac Off-Script: TDS Gives Way to IDF

13 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac Discusses TDS (Tariff Derangement Syndrome) giving way to IDF (Israeli Defense Forces), message out of real-rates, the employment picture, traj...

RenMac Off-Script: Caught in a Bad Bromance

06 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the latest payroll print and why the Fed may use it to stay on the sidelines, the improvement in small-cap performance, the call betw...

RenMac Off-Script: TACO: Tariffs Are Constitutional or Not

30 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discuss the latest developments on the tariff front, the administration’s multiple avenues to pursue their trade agenda, the slowing in the l...

RenMac Off-Script Podcast: More to Rates than U.S. Fiscal

23 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac talks government bonds, the divergence in the $ and rates, the global repudiation of government debt, and the implications, Bitcoin’s new hig...

RenMac Off-Script Podcast: GOP Bond Boo-Boo?

16 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac double-clicks on bond market’s message, GOP reconciliation, deGraaf’s Thrust and implications, Gold’s seasonality, energy implications an...

RenMac Off-Script: Holy Smokes

09 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac dives into the latest on tariffs, Powell’s position, the RenMac Retest Rule, Communion suggestions for the new Pope, how the markets and the ...

RenMac Off-Script: Strategic Uncertainty

02 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac unpacks the latest employment report, the discrepancy between soft and hard data, the importance of considering “what can go right vs wrong”...

RenMac Off-Script: Clock Ticking on Trade

25 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses Trump backing off on Powell’s firing, why a slower growth environment could mean a more consensus Fed pick, the latest in trade neg...

RenMac Off-Script: “You're Fired”?

18 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the importance of the Fed’s independence, the likely options, the dark-cross in the Mag-7 and the implications historically for alp...

RenMac Off-Script: Bond Market Takes Hostages

11 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac walks through the turmoil in bonds, China’s alternatives to creating negotiation leverage, deleveraging vs system risk, increasing recession ...

RenMac Off-Script: Obliteration Day

04 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the difference between trade deficits and tariffs, the “escalate to de-escalate” strategy, today’s payroll numbers, how the Fed...

RenMac Off-Script: Bad News Priced

28 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the upcoming “Liberation Day,” why much of the bad news might already be priced in, the strike price on the respective Trump and ...

RenMac Off-Script: Tariffied

21 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac unpacks the FOMC meeting, Trump’s conversation with Putin, the deteriorating transportation names, tariff uncertainty, the likelihood of a do...

RenMac Off-Script: Eggs-cellent

14 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the potential strategy behind Schumer’s decision to avoid a government shutdown, the contribution of egg prices to CPI, the deterio...

RenMac Off-Script: A Weak Outlook Trump's Making Worse

07 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac dissects the payrolls, the latest tariff moves, the importance of credit indications and the complete unwind of beta as well as this weeks mail...

RenMac Off-Script: Policy Uncertainty

28 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Renmac talks through the latest policy uncertainty and its history on markets, Neil interprets the latest housing and income data and how today is mir...

RenMac Off-Script: Data and Industrials

21 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac team discusses the potential for government shutdown and the calculus from Ds, the softening data and the risks created by the Fed, the deterio...

RenMac Off-Script: Valentine VAT

14 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac crew discusses the difference between a VAT and tariff, this week’s inflation data, our China/HK call, the notable deterioration in internal ...

RenMac Off-Script: Thin Kids At Fat Camp

07 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses implications of the latest employment report, the alignment of market’s message and economic data,  Trump’s “Flood the Zone”...

RenMac Off-Script: Tick-Tock Tariffs

31 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac opines on tariffs and their economic impact, bar fights and political strategy, unpacking Jevon’s paradox, DeepSeek’s potential genome-sequ...

RenMac Off-Script: Inaugural Excoriation

24 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the busy week in Washinton, a reminder that the cameras are always on, the importance of oil to growth and inflation, executive order...

RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Sensation

16 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the renewed improvement in consumer price inflation, the term premium as a driver of bond yields, the outperformance of financials an...

RenMac Off-Script: Yields Take Their Toll

10 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses why the latest jobs number validates the Fed’s recent pivot and why this risks a passive policy tightening, the impact of higher yi...

RenMac Off-Script: Uninspiring-ISMs

03 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Jeff, Neil and Steve discuss the latest data from ISM, Johnson’s speakership, the dollar, yields, executive actions and the momentum factor in 2024 ...

RenMac Off-Script: Trump Bump or Slump

27 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses Speaker Johnson's future, the contrast in conference board confidence now versus 2016, lingering continuing clams data, the bounce in...

RenMac Off-Script: Jay Sees Ghost of Christmas Past

20 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses Musk’s government shutdown, the politics behind Powell’s statement, Beta’s vulnerability, the decaying wall-of-worry and the po...

RenMac Off-Script: Bond Bull in a China Shop?

13 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the latest inflation data, why the data may be trending better for bonds than the consensus, how equity factors are set-up, the power...

RenMac Off-Script: Pardon the Payrolls

06 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the latest payroll data, bubbling animal spirits and sentiment, an update to our market cycle clock and pardon implications and prece...

RenMac Off-Script: Overconfident?

29 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the mismatch between housing data and consumer confidence, the motivations behind Trump’s initial tariff salvo, how seasonality and...

RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Scott Bessent - (originally produced Feb 2021)

26 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In early 2021, I had the opportunity to catch up with a good friend of mine through the years, Scott Bessent. Given Scott's new role as incoming Treas...

RenMac Off-Script: The Treasury Apprentice

22 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses:Latest developments with Trump appointmentsThe horserace for Treasury secretaryOngoing weakness in labor demandLow bulls in Treasurie...

RenMac Off-Script: Solid but Cooling

15 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses latest inflation data and the impact on the Fed, what labor market’s are telling us about trajectory, Latest Trump nominations, Bit...

RenMac Off-Script: The Great Growth Re-Rate

08 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Jeff, Neil, and Steve discuss:Expectations between now and electionAccuracy of betting markets in defense of price discoveryThe big losersPath of unif...

RenMac Off-Script: October Surprise

01 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac talks about the payroll surprise, the importance of NC and PA to Trump and Harris, elevated equity volatility and quiescent credit spreads and ...

RenMac Off-Script: Is Kamala Under-Valued?

25 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the process of price discovery in the political prediction markets, the current state of the horserace, the outlook for employment, w...

RenMac Off-Script: Banker in Training

18 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses this week’s data, the prospects of a shadow Fed Chair, the latest polls and candidates’ performance, China and how the overbought...

RenMac Off-Script: Trump Bump

11 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses:The latest shift in polls in the continued razor-thin election. The latest inflation data and how the sequence of jobs and inflation...

RenMac Off-Script: A Jobs Jolt

04 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the latest payroll surprise, the impact Helene is having on polling, China’s historic market strength, the improvement of cyclicals...

RenMac Off-Script: China Turns

27 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Neil cameos from Oktoberfest while Steve and Jeff discuss the equity strength in China, Kamala’s border visit, the empty promises made by both camps...

RenMac Off-Script: Sticking the Landing

20 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the expected 50bps rate cut, implications for future cuts, the trajectory of the data going forward, the market impact and the latest...

RenMac Off-Script: Trump Takes De Bait

13 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses why 50bps makes the most sense, the impact the debate is likely to have on the election, the changes in capital requirements at banks...

RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Pin 50

06 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the weak August employment report, why the next decision really is less about consensus and more about what Powell thinks, a preview ...

RenMac Off-Script: Game Day Walk Thru

30 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

With Neil and Steve on the beach, Jeff and Kevin walk through the market’s message, where the strength and weakness are building and fading, and wha...

RenMac Off-Script: Revisionist History

23 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac Team discusses the DNC and latest in the general election campaign, the folly of price controls, the sharp downward revision to payroll emp...

RenMac Off-Script Podcast: Markets vs Media: Which One is Gaslighting?

16 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the current sensitive state of markets and the possible impacts of the upcoming decision on rate cuts, Kamala’s potential econo...

RenMac Off-Script Podcast: Claims, Cuts, and Complacency

09 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses initial jobless claims, the baseline for rate cuts, and the growing risk of complacency from the Fed and market participants, Kamal...

RenMac Off-Script: The Fed's Folly

02 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac Off-Script: Markets are Oversold, but is Kamala Overbought?

26 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses Harris’s candidacy and her potential picks for Vice President, GDP, inflation data, and what they mean for the Fed’s upcoming rat...

RenMac Off-Script: The Fed Will Cut Rates, but Will the Democrats Cut Biden?

20 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the possibility and potential implications of Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, his likely replacement (will Democr...

RenMac Off-Script: Everyone Biden Time: Rate Cuts to Politics

12 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses Biden’s struggles and how the Democrats will move forward, Trump’s potential picks for Vice President (is Nikki Haley his bes...

RenMac Legends: A Conversation on the Labor Market with Guy Berger

11 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Guy Berger is someone I had the good fortune of overlapping with at Bank of America. Over the years, Guy has become my go-to resource for all question...

RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Walter Deemer

06 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Bullish Sentiment Thru the AgesJeff deGraaf talks with Walt Deemer about the elevated bullish sentiment, stories from the nifty-fifty, differentiating...

RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls and Politics

05 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses payrolls and what this means for the Fed in lieu of next week’s core inflation number, what the betting markets are telling us abou...

RenMac Off-Script: Debate & Switch?

28 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the options for Democrats to replace Biden following the debate, how the stock market has reacted to the presidential polls, why Neil...